Posted on 03/10/2016 5:07:48 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Republican lawmakers are warily eyeing the possibility of a brokered convention that could force party leaders to choose between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and celebrity businessman Donald Trump for their presidential nominee.
It is, they say, a very difficult choice. From their perspective, it’s picking between the devil they know and the devil they don’t know.
Many GOP senators have declined to state their preferences publicly while the race remains competitive. Privately, they are flummoxed at the possibility of likely having to choose between two candidates they view as highly problematic.
Lawmakers who spoke to The Hill on background say they are wavering over who would be the better nominee — or more bluntly, the lesser of two evils.
Trump is generally viewed as having a better chance of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and less of a negative impact on Republican candidates down-ballot in the general election. But the idea of him in the Oval Office makes some GOP senators uncomfortable.
“Trump would have a better chance against Hillary Clinton and wouldn’t be as bad for Republicans in other races, but I think Cruz would make a better president,” said one GOP senator who requested anonymity.
“Trump wouldn’t have as much of an impact down-ballot because it would be easier for us to disassociate from him,” the lawmaker stated.
Lawmakers said they had a hard time distancing themselves from former Missouri Rep. Todd Akin (R) and former Indiana treasurer Richard Mourdock in 2012 after they made controversial comments on rape and abortion.
Some think it would be easier to create distance from Trump because he’s running as a businessman new to politics who supported Republicans and Democrats in the past.
A Republican senator argued the recent primaries in Alabama and Arkansas, which Sens. Richard Shelby and John Boozman won with 65 percent and 76 percent, respectively, show that Trump may help GOP candidates by boosting turnout.
“Set aside Trump’s disadvantages. He would probably bring out a lot of people to vote. If you look at Shelby’s and Boozman’s primaries, Trump won their states and they won big,” he said. “So it looks like people who come out to vote for Trump are comfortable voting for the Republican Senate candidate.”
The idea of Trump in the Oval Office, however, makes stomachs churn on Capitol Hill because he is so unpredictable. And while the billionaire may have helped Republicans in a deep red state, how will he affect vulnerable Republican senators in purple and blue states in November?
Cruz, meanwhile, is the least popular member of the Senate, though his colleagues say at least they have an idea of what to expect from him.
“It’s a Hobson’s choice. Cruz is more predictable. Predictability is comforting in politics,” said another Republican senator, who agreed that Trump has more upside potential against Clinton because of his appeal among blue-collar voters in the battleground states of the Upper Midwest.
“The thing with Trump is he’s unpredictable. You really don’t know how he would act as president,” the lawmaker added.
More than 50 conservative national security and foreign policy experts released a letter last week panning Trump as unfit to serve as commander in chief.
Trump pledged Tuesday night after winning victories in Michigan and Mississippi that he would adopt a more presidential tone in office.
“I can be more presidential than anybody,” he told supporters at a rally in Florida. “If I want to, I can be more presidential than anybody.”
Republican senators won’t get to vote for the nominee in Cleveland, where the convention will be held in July, but they may have influence as senior party officials if Trump or Cruz fail to win on the first ballot.
“I don’t know how it works. It’s uncharted territory,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the party’s standard-bearer in 2008.
A well-funded coalition of anti-Trump Republicans has emerged, but giving the nomination to someone else if he wins the plurality of delegates could prompt a revolt by his supporters.
“A legitimate question is, suppose they have a brokered convention and they don’t pick Trump? What does he do?” McCain added.
Trump has 458 delegates, while Cruz, who’s in second place, has 359, according to The Associated Press. Trump would need to win 54 percent of the remaining delegates and Cruz just over 60 percent to reach the 1,237 needed to clinch the nod outright.
If neither candidate reaches the magic number, the nominee may be decided by two, three or more rounds of balloting at the convention in Cleveland. A larger proportion of the delegates will become unbound with each successive vote, giving them more and more discretion to pick the party’s standard-bearer.
Trump will take a major step toward avoiding a brokered convention if he wins Florida and Ohio, two large winner-take-all states, which will allocate delegates after the March 15 primaries.
Republican senators say Trump has proven himself to be a formidable political force. However, they question whether he’ll stick to conservative policy tenets once in office.
“Trump doesn’t have much of a political compass. He has the ability to redefine himself over the course of a debate,” said another GOP senator. “My concern with Trump is there’s a greater likelihood of the pendulum swinging to the left of center with him in office.”
On the other hand, the lawmaker fretted that Cruz as president would routinely swat down bills passed by Congress if they contained elements of compromise.
“With Cruz I’d be worried about opposition along the lines that things don’t go far enough,” the GOP senator added.
Republican senators say Trump could prove a stronger general election candidate than Cruz because of his appeal to independent voters, but the polling has been contradictory.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey shows that Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is also vying for the Democratic nomination, would beat Trump by double-digits in a general election match-up. The same survey showed Cruz trailing Clinton by only 2 points and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tied with her at 46 percent.
But other polls show Trump beating Clinton in the key battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who dropped out the 2016 presidential race in December, has suggested that Republicans should rally around Cruz.
Cruz and Graham spoke on the phone last week but Graham, who quipped that having to choose between Trump and Cruz is like picking between “being shot or poisoned,” said he doesn’t have any plans to make an endorsement.
“I go back and forth between them,” another GOP senator told The Hill Wednesday. “They’re both so unpredictable.”
The legislator added that he and his colleagues have been reluctant to come out publicly against Trump because they fear endorsing a rival would only backfire.
“A lot of us are afraid, well not afraid, but reluctant to come out for someone because it will probably help Trump. Trump will just say, ‘See, there goes the establishment,’” the Republican senator said.
I can just see Trump as John Belushi smashing beer cans on his head, or sticking straws up his nose.
good one.
They should watch this video:
The greatest video of TRUMP you will ever see.
https://www.facebook.com/endfederalreserve/videos/681625301939928/?fref=nf
These “lawmakers” should be more worried about their own future. RINO’s BEWARE. Your day of reckoning is very near.
Hear, hear!
That’s right...he’s absolutely establishment...Bush establishment from the very beginning.
Ted Cruz’s Establishment Endorsements:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Ted_Cruz
There is no way. They will have turned off a whole generation who will be resigned to the Democrat's vision of the US and learn how to survive as best as possible as the US devolves. I'm not alone in saying that at that point it's "survival mode" and we might actually buy a few more years with the dems.
The puppetmasters don't care. They have gated and guarded enclaves, ready for however long it takes before it all comes tumblin' down.
Cruz voters have to start realizing that they're being used, just as he's taken advantage of so many along his journey through the nomination process.
TRump : tough choice/
Cruz : Shades of Reagan.
==
Good try.
If the bastards would stop worrying about their own personal political survival and started doing what is right for this country, they would realize which candidate they can get behind and support. Lets face it, it’s going to be Trump or Cruz and hopefully the candidate that surfaces to the top will be a LIGIMITE winner. No brokered conventions, rule changes and/or alternative plans by the GOP elite, just a plain and simple choice of “WE, The People”. Then and only then will we have a fair and reputable candidate.
Since Bork, no one can be nominated for the Supreme Court who's publicly held strong opinions and expect to be approved by the Senate.
So, Ted Cruz has zero chance of sitting on the High Court.
In the White House Cruz has the bully pulpit and much work ahead to turn this ship around.
There is no way to “steal the nomination” - it requires 1237 delegates, then you’ve crossed the threashold.
They see their invites to the Chablis and Brie and $$$$$ soirees vanishing before their eyes and are in a state of full panic.
“Since Bork, no one can be nominated for the Supreme Court who’s publicly held strong opinions and expect to be approved by the Senate. “
Do you know who Ruth Bader Ginsburg, former attorney for ACLU is?
“If the bastards would stop worrying about their own personal political survival and started doing what is right for this country, they would realize which candidate they can get behind and support. “
That’s called being a patriot, and those guys are few and far between. Dems ostracize the likes of Joe Lieberman, and Republicans do the same.
Just to make sure you understand, Rubio and Kasich delegates voting for Cruz at the convention is not “stealing”. It is not “cheating”.
The nomination process is not a strictly democratic process. It is a delegate/convention process. That is the way it was designed. Like the folks that think we should get rid of the Electoral College, do you think we should get rid of the delegate/convention system? If so, what is your proposed replacement?
A slight correction: "All the voters, new and old, are gonna vote, and they’ll be mad as hell."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg#Supreme_Court
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork#U.S._Supreme_Court_nomination
Apparently Sen Cruz has decided to make it easy for them
Ted Cruz Says Donald Trump’s Voters Have “relatively low information” And Are “not that engaged”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3407421/posts
If it is perceived that there were backroom deals to pool together the delegates of an elitist-chosen candidate, it is stealing the election. A lot of folks who voted for the wannabees have Trump as their second choice, and they won’t be amused.
“Agree. The nomination I see it as Trump’s to lose. So if Trump goes to the convention with the most delegates and doesn’t get the nomination, a good chunk of his supporters could easily say, “screw it,” and stay home.”
More likely Trump will be the first president in our history elected by write-ins if he won’t run third party ticket. Lol
1. Replace the caucuses with private voting. A secret ballot is the cornnerstone of our democracy, yet in some places the process of electing a President starts with an intimidating, arm-twisting, public spectacle.
2. Once they get to the convention, some basic decency. The wannabees and the party elite working behind closed doors to stop the person with the most delegates is not good-faith representation. It's a coup by the elite backstabbers. The nominee will not be accepted, not just by the Trump supporters, but by the supporters of everyone else whose vote was abused.
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