Just because I was curious, and I really was because I didn’t know, I just crunched the numbers for contests based on different “seasons”.
The “early season” States were Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
Then the “Super Tuesday” States.
And finally the “Super Saturday” States.
I did just a fast, raw average of both Trump and Cruz’s level of support in each season and this is what I found:
Early States:
Trump - 34.5
Cruz - 20.8
Super Tuesday:
Trump - 34.6
Cruz - 25.4
Super Saturday (without Puerto Rico)
Trump - 33.3
Cruz - 40.9
Super Saturday (with Puerto Rico)
Trump - 29.4
Cruz - 34.5
The final season for Cruz is exaggerated as he had a couple of very big wins in very small contests, but what is amazing is the consistency of Trump’s averages over the seasons.
He isn’t gaining support, while Cruz definitely is.
Well with your logic Cruz should sweep today then.
I would guess that Cruz’s home state is a big factor.
Oh oh, not safe to point out the 35% ceiling.