Wonder how heavily Rove is drinking tonight. Seems we are NOT past “Peak Trump”.
A great night for Trump so far. He over-performed the single poll reported in Mississippi by about 14%, the same as Alabama on Super Tuesday and the best over-performance of the race for him. He also came in almost exactly on his RCP average in Michigan. Polls for Trump have been uncannily accurate, which should make him happy as he looks at some upcoming winner-take-all States like Ohio and Florida, where he leads in both.
If Trump is having a great night, it means that the others aren’t doing so well, and that’s true. But I note Cruz once again has way over-performed his poll numbers. By 25% in Michigan and an astounding 114% in Mississippi. The pollsters need to figure out why their mixture isn’t accurately picking up on Cruz when they are dead on for Trump. Cruz also looks like he will add Idaho to his win column and although he is falling behind on the delegate count, this isn’t a complete blowout. South Carolina was his low point in terms of expectations so far this primary season.
Kasich has had his best night so far. His second place finishes in Massachusetts and Vermont on Super Tuesday were not so surprising after his strong finish in New Hampshire. But beating Rubio in Mississippi shows he might have been the better choice for the GOP establishment to put their money on after Bush tanked.
And Rubio... well, not much to say. This is a train wreck and it looks like he will end up with zero delegates in the first three contests of the night. It is a bad, bad day for him.