Posted on 03/08/2016 5:24:01 AM PST by tatown
Hawaii · 19 delegates Last poll closes at 11:00 PM CT
Idaho · 32 delegates Last poll closes at 10:00 PM CT
Michigan · 59 delegates Last poll closes at 8:00 PM CT
Mississippi · 40 delegates Last poll closes at 7:00 PM CT
It isn’t even remotely possible that I was joking.
You miss a yuugge basic premise in your faulty assessment. Winner take all states have a higher target expectation.
Today there were no winner take all. So extrapolating the same target percentage today to future days with winner take all is a futile exercise. Duh.
Its a pleasant surprise....
I predicted HI for Boobio but he’s doing so poorly, the islands magic isn’t apparently working for him.
If that holds up, he’s the Walking Dead tonight.
There’s several on line calculators Trumps target is 59. Hi coming in now Trump up.
Thanks for that clarification!
Tiny Bubbles and Kaysick are tied.
Go Trump!
Just for point of reference, in the last primary there were ~10k votes in the Republican primary, for Hawaii. Figure it will be closer to 12-15k for this one.
Cruzers sure don’t seem to have a problem with Ted having strange bedfellows. Even the NWO type.
Scary.
Those of us still up are fanatics haha. I gotta work in 6 hours!
That’s nice. i’m going by a plurality of what several analysts have said.
There are 391 delegates available from true WTA states. Of that, you can probably assume Ohio will go to Kasich, so take away 66, leaving 325. That puts Trump at around 750 delegates after tonight if you assume he gets all of the other WTA states. So he would still need to get about 460 out of the remaining 913 delegates, or 50% of the delegates from the remaining states to win on the first ballot.
I was just thinking that I know how many people voted in the last Hawaiian primary, but I have no idea why I’m still awake.
Is that 913 number contested delegates or does it include states like Colorado and Wyoming, who will send delegates unbound?
Those are making assumptions about how he will do in future contests. I am only dealing with where he is right now.
First hard number up on CNN...
13% of the vote in Trump over Cruz 42% to 28%.
That’s the HI GOP caucuses.
That is contested delegates - I am not including unbound delegates, because you can’t know how they will vote. If he wants to be sure of winning on the first ballot, he needs to go in with 1237 committed delegates.
You’re still awake because if you went to bed you’d be laying there wondering if damn Cruz pulled out HI. Same as me.
After Kasich bombs, they are going to use Cruz to try to get to a brokered convention.
With the Bush family coming on board, the cognitive dissonance of the Cruzers is going to be legion as this continues.
Cruz is running second in HI.
I’d say Trump takes it for three wins of the night.
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