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Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model
Huffington Post ^ | 03/07/2016 | Helmut Norpoth

Posted on 03/08/2016 5:04:27 AM PST by detective

With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.

These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: trump
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A statistical election model shows Trump is almost certain to win in November.

That is the real reason why the political establishment is trying to destroy him. They are trying to weaken him so that he can not win.

1 posted on 03/08/2016 5:04:27 AM PST by detective
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To: detective

2 posted on 03/08/2016 5:07:18 AM PST by Byron_the_Aussie (Michelle Obama, The Early Years: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBYGxBlFOSU)
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To: detective

Why are people sure that Trump is the takeover agent of the Democrats to destroy the GOP? Leftists like the Huffington Post writing articles about his strength. They don’t do that for their conservative enemies.


3 posted on 03/08/2016 5:11:41 AM PST by txrefugee
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To: txrefugee

Unless it’s psy-ops. The liberal media loved to claim they were most afraid of Romney too IIRC.


4 posted on 03/08/2016 5:14:20 AM PST by Behind Liberal Lines (Obama loves America the way OJ loved Nicole)
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To: txrefugee
“the Huffington Post writing articles about his strength. They don’t do that for their conservative enemies.”

The Huffington Post and other MSM publications constantly attack Trump. They make up false allegations about him.

This is a statistical study by a university professor.

5 posted on 03/08/2016 5:15:26 AM PST by detective
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To: detective

I voted Cruz in our primary. However, I will walk barefoot
over rough gravel to vote TRUMP against Hitler-y Clinton
if it comes down to it.


6 posted on 03/08/2016 5:22:11 AM PST by Twinkie (John 3:16)
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To: detective
Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model

This is bad news for the GOPe who certainly don't want the responsibility of leading this nation as evidenced by their last choices.

7 posted on 03/08/2016 5:22:34 AM PST by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

And don’t forget Jimmy Carter saying that Donald Trump would be the most malleable presidential candidate.


8 posted on 03/08/2016 5:23:28 AM PST by Cowgirl of Justice
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To: Twinkie

I prefer the crawling over broken glass image.


9 posted on 03/08/2016 5:26:40 AM PST by Mercat
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To: detective

As much as I like hearing this (as a Trump supporter), I spent 8 years working with statistical models in marketing. Give me enough data and I can give you any result you want using legitimate statistical methods and make it look convincing.

Unlike the climate change debate, empirical evidence is going to decide the winner (i.e. votes). That will happen eventually with climate change but many people are too convinced that models mean things they don’t.


10 posted on 03/08/2016 5:29:19 AM PST by LostPassword
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To: Cowgirl of Justice

Jimmy’s is a nut!


11 posted on 03/08/2016 5:33:00 AM PST by Rodm
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To: detective
Trump Near-Certain to Defeat Democrat in November According To Primary Model

Possibly, but the GOPe Fat Cats in their backrooms would rather have him lose than for them to not be puppetmasters, and to hell with the citizens.

12 posted on 03/08/2016 5:35:29 AM PST by The Sons of Liberty (My Forefathers Would Be Shooting By Now!)
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To: txrefugee
Leftists...writing articles about (Trump's) strength


IDK, I get really suspicious when the left agrees with us. Psychological trickery and such.

13 posted on 03/08/2016 5:39:13 AM PST by LoveUSA (God employs Man's strength; Satan exploits Man's weakness.)
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To: Rodm

I’m sure he thought people wouldn’t vote for Trump by saying that.

We see right through you Jimmah.

Now apologize to Israel. They saved your life.


14 posted on 03/08/2016 5:42:56 AM PST by Cowgirl of Justice
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To: LostPassword
“Give me enough data and I can give you any result you want using legitimate statistical methods and make it look convincing.”

It is true that statistical models can be misused.

The main problem with the climate change models are in the fraudulent data and the fraudulent assumptions.

Trump is attracting enormous interest and enthusiasm. He spends little money but wins elections, increases turnout and is the front runner despite being constantly attacked by the media and the establishment.

Jeb Bush and others spent enormous amounts of money and were supported by the media and by Republican office holders. They still lost. Nothing can be predicted with absolute certainty but Trump appears to be likely to win.

15 posted on 03/08/2016 5:43:23 AM PST by detective
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To: detective

The latest polls show Trumps support fading a bit. This study is based on the early primaries where he had strong support that may not hold.

It seems the more people get to know him. The more they dislike him.


16 posted on 03/08/2016 5:44:58 AM PST by Uncle Lonny
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To: Cowgirl of Justice

“Jimmy Carter saying that Donald Trump would be the most malleable presidential candidate.”

Jimmy Carter only said that as a way of attacking Trump.

Carter is a failed ex-president. If you want to hear some really nasty things from Carter read what he said about Ronald Reagan.

Being attacked by Carter puts Trump in good company.


17 posted on 03/08/2016 5:47:08 AM PST by detective
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To: Twinkie
With the 'rat ticket looking like a choice between a power-mad lying thief or a delusional commie... You better believe I'll be voting for who-ever the Republican nominee is.

Sure, neither Trump nor Cruz are perfect. But there is no question either would be good for America to some degree. There is no doubt whatsoever that either Clinton or Sanders would be an unmitigated disaster for America. Coming on the heels of 8 years of obama destructiveness I'm not sure the Country could ever get back to something resembling what it once was and what it is intended to be.

18 posted on 03/08/2016 5:47:31 AM PST by ThunderSleeps (Stop obarma now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: Uncle Lonny
“The latest polls show Trumps support fading a bit. This study is based on the early primaries where he had strong support that may not hold.”

Trump is being attacked every day by the media, the Republican establishment and the Super PACs that are spending hundreds of millions on attack ads. Any other candidate who had to endure this would be destroyed but Trump is just “fading a bit”.

19 posted on 03/08/2016 5:51:41 AM PST by detective
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To: txrefugee
Leftists like the Huffington Post writing articles about his strength. They don’t do that for their conservative enemies.

You're joking right? I guess you've missed HuffPost's 6-month jihad against Trump, with him relegated to the "Entertainment" section and banned from "Politics" and EVERY single article about Trump mandated to have this appended to it (hundreds so far):

Editor's note: Donald Trump is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist, birther and bully who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims -- 1.6 billion members of an entire religion -- from entering the U.S.

20 posted on 03/08/2016 6:08:25 AM PST by montag813
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