Posted on 03/07/2016 7:23:05 AM PST by Jim W N
BTW, a little off the subject maybe, maybe not, but does anyone have a roster of exactly who the top people in the GOP establishment are that want/wanted Rubio/Bush to win (so we could lose again to the Dems) and hate the “outsiders”? (IMO future elections should have ONLY outsiders - career politicians ARE the problem.)
OK, I know Mitch McConnell. Who else? If anyone has a roster with pictures, even better.
Anyway, whoever they are, they gotta go. IMO one way or the other the GOP as we know it has to go.
Morning in America!!!
So, may it be!
It would be nice for Trump to sweep on Tuesday and get some distance between him and Cruz.
According to the polls...
Trump was also up by about 12 in Kansas, and lost by 25.
He was nearly tied in Texas, and lost by 24.
He was thought to be so far ahead in Maine, nobody bothered polling. He got clobbered.
He was thought to be ahead in Minnesota and finished a distant 3rd.
He was thought to be ahead by 6-10 in Iowa, and just barely escaped 3rd.
| Delegates | Type | Cumulative Delegate Count |
|||
March 15, 2016 |
Ohio |
66 |
Modified primary |
w-t-all |
1177 |
Florida |
99 |
Closed primary |
w-t-all |
1276 |
|
Illinois |
69 |
Open primary |
w-t-all |
1345 |
|
Missouri |
52 |
Modified caucus |
w-t-all |
1397 |
|
North Carolina |
72 |
Modified primary |
prop |
1469 |
|
March 22, 2016 |
Arizona |
58 |
Closed primary |
prop |
1527 |
Utah |
40 |
Modified primary |
hyb |
1567 |
w-t-all = winner take all
prop = proportional
hyb = hybrid, usually winner take most
In Kentucky, Trump was up by 20 over Cruz and won by 4.
In Louisiana, Trump was up by 15.6 over Cruz and lost on primary day (and wound up winning by 3 points including the early voters).
There was a post on here a couple days ago that showed how they are all doing in the poll vs actual results. Trump has underperformed by 1-2%, Cruz has overperformed by 24-25%. This covered all the primaries up to that date. Any polls taken before the last debate are pretty much WAG’s now.
Yeah... Louisiana is kinda amazing... he was winning the early vote, 55-22 and lost the day-of vote!
At this point, Ohio is the most interesting for a few reasons. If Kasich pulls out Ohio, he denies Trump a big lump of winner take all delegates, and he likely sticks around for a while... meaning more 3 way races going forward for at least another round. IF he loses, he’s pretty much out, and Trump gets the OHIO delegation, and between FL and OH grabs a 150ish delegates with no proportionalization for the others and pulls further away.
Rubio trying to stick around after losing Florida, will show us just how big his ego is or not... IF he loses FL he’s done, and should be out before next round of states.
Kasich winning Ohio would almost certainly guarantee even more chaos as if so, he’s going to be able to likely stick around until at the Wisconsin vote on 4/5 and probably through the next big vote on 4/26. I don’t know what other state he’s likely to win, especially if its a 3 way race, but I would think he’d be on WI, and probably think he’d play at least in PA and possibly IN. I don’t see a path for him to win, but he certainly can stick around and play spoiler here and there.
There are only a few caucus states left, and those are sparsely populated low delegate states, Cruz needs to show he can compete strong in a Primary state against Trump that’s not in his backyard, and so far that hasn’t happened. The hope of the Cruz campaign is that the establishment piling on attacking Trump and field consolidation will benefit him, but I am not so sure that’s likely to happen and if Kasich sticks around, its even harder to see how Cruz gets above Trump.
Tommorrow MI and MS are the two to watch, with MI being the more important important indicator in my mind.
Time will tell. If nothing else, this is certainly the most exciting primary season in a long long time.
You forgot Oklahoma. Trump was up +11 and lost by -6.
Cruz has a better ground game, I don’t think anyone would argue Trump has nearly the ground game/GOTV infrastructure Cruz has, particularly in the south, where he’s bet the farm. So far though, that just hasn’t been enough.
Time will tell, but unless we see some major upsets like Trump losing MI tomorrow ... or Losing FL or OH next Tuesday, its hard to see a path where Cruz wins the nomination.
Both Tennessee, Georgia, and SC Senators for starters.
Seems like last minute deciders are afraid of him.
I like that he does Press conferences after the primaries instead of Ra-Ra speeches. It makes him look more Presidential.
His next debate performance has to be strong and have substance.
Sadly, I just don’t like Cruz. He seems like a typical slimy lawyer and politician to me.
I will vote for Trump just to have the chance to see someone really take it the Hitlery.
I discount caucus stares. With that said it is clear that late breaking undecideds are not going to Trump. The only decent polls that are close to the actual outcomes are those that force leaning results. There are few of those polls. I expect Mississippi and Michigan will be much closer than the pols show. Idaho will likely go Cruz and Hawaii is a caucus state where people are not paying attention. I go with an establishment candidate without any proof.
It will be interesting to,see how Michigan pans out among Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. If Kasich wins it says more about Ohio and the anti-Trump campaign by the GOPe. If Cru wins I believe it shows both the anti-Trump,campaign impact and Trump outsiders are beginning to shift allegiences. A big Trump win, ten or more points, will mean nothing has fundimentally changed.
It's an appalling situation. The cornerstone of our freedom is the secret ballot. Yet, in a caucus, the selection process for President starts with this open situation, subject to intimidation, cheating and manipulation.
Trump for President.
Trump has never won a state by his poll margin which is a testament to Cruz/GOP donors ground game
Trump better not relax
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