Posted on 03/07/2016 6:45:53 AM PST by Hojczyk
Trump finished very close to where he was projected to finish in all four elections. The reason he “underperformed,” winning just two of the four states up for grabs, is because Ted Cruz overperformed dramatically. And the reason Cruz overperformed is starkly clear in Cohn’s graph, namely, a broad chunk of Rubio’s support collapsed out from under him and shifted to Cruz. According to Alexis Levinson, Rubio banked 20.1 percent of the early vote in Louisiana but just 9.4 percent(!) of the ballots cast yesterday.
Check WaPo’s early vote/election day comparison map of Louisiana and you’ll see Rubio’s early strength vanish before your very eyes, replaced by a late surge for Cruz. When the first returns in Louisiana were reported last night, showing Trump up more than 20 points based on early voting, the networks promptly called the state for him and pronounced it another demonstration of his power in the south. And then, for the next two hours, everyone watched as Cruz surged closer and closer — at one point coming within three points, leading data nerds on Twitter to howl that the networks should un-call the race. Trump held on to win — by less than four points, in a state where RCP’s final poll average had him ahead by nearly 16.
Rubio, meanwhile, finished at a dismal 11.2 percent. That was symptomatic of a national trend yesterday, with Cruz doing better than expected and Rubio doing worse. Obviously, some significant number of pro-Rubio conservatives decided to vote strategically and support Cruz instead.
Graph
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/706337638912040960/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Exactly the wrong thing for Cruz supporters to do.
Trump might win those states, but looking at the results from Saturday, Cruz is the only one with momentum right now. Trump and Rubio had it in February. Tuesday’s elections all depend on what Rubio (and to a lesser degree, Kasich) supporters do at this point.
Same here. Years ago I bought a T-shirt from Jews For The Preservation of Firearms Ownership that showed Hitler giving the salute. The caption was "All those in favor of gun registration, raise your right hand." It stuck in my mind that any politician who asked for a hand-raising, for whatever purpose, was asking to be pilloried by his enemies as a Nazi-wannabe. I'm amazed that Trump pulled this dumb stunt, let alone his mild threat afterwards. The old "What was he thinking?" adage applies here.
Just so you know, most people skip over your long boring cut and paste posts.
he’s got nothing on yosemite’s posts
Go look up some for ideas. :-)
Dynoman is a paid shill for Trump. I think she posts about20 hours a day. Either getting paid per post or the hour. Bonuses for posts over 500 words.
Ohio is where the action is. Kasich is his enemy.
Until Cruz wins a primary state with a big population that isn’t his home state, Cruz hasn’t shown any viability.
Trump wins FL and OH next week its tough to see any path for someone else. If he loses either, things get more interesting for sure.
MI and MS are the two to watch tomorrow... If Kasich upsets in MI and or Cruz upsets in MS, we definitely have an inflection point going on and Trump will need to adapt/adjust to it.
Given how much money is being spent to stop Trump I wouldn’t say either is beyond the realm of possibility, but should a surprise happen in either state, that doesn’t mean that Trump is done in the least.. just that adjustments will be made.
I do think Trump harmed himself with his H1B change in the last debate, and all in all the last debate was bad for pretty much everyone involved except for Kasich.. so him gaining in a rustbelt state wouldn’t be overly surprising.
Time will tell.
Volume, in quantity and loudness, scores no points, takes up bandwidth, and irritates most.
However, in their defense, it is more pleasurable to read than being called idiots, low information, insincere non pure conservatives, that should be "damned to hell".
So, sometimes it is entertaining, if one chooses to scroll.
There is a definite giveaway tick to the professionals, thus usually in the first sentence one gets the flavor, and then the scroll button whisks one to the nest screen.
Just so you know his are more interesting and fact based than your swooning for Mr Haney posts.
Everyone I know in Florida of all stripes will be voting for Trump. A few used to be Cruz supporters until he showed his butt with Dr Carson,and the nasty,creepy crooked behavior since then.
I am working here in our Sunshine State to help elect Donald Trump.
I have learned more about Cruz and sure do not like what I found. His latest reaching out to Graham is very troubling, and just confirms that Cruz is less of an “outsider” than he claims. And his following along with the ridiculous attacks from Romney and Romney saying he will endorse either Cruz, Kasich or Rubio is also very troubling. Needless to say, at this point I do not trust Ted Cruz. It is obvious to me he is ALSO controlled by the “Money Power donors” of DC.
Not so......any candidate has to reach out for support across the board to secure a win....Trump is doing so as well...especially now that the field has narrowed. Trump just got some Union voters, who always vote Demorat....so by your reasoning that should be “troubling” and would look like Trups being controlled by the Unions, who will surely want payback for doing so.
Trump will win Florida. I’m worried about Kasich taking Ohio away from him.
Please tell me what Unions are they and from what states? Are they right to work states where folks can be employed without having to join the Union?
New Monmouth Florida poll gives Trump a 38-30 lead over Rubio. However the poll claims 19 percent already voted and they broke big to Rubio, 48-23. Trump has a big lead on those who have yet to vote.
Cruz is the wild card here. He can hurt Rubio enough to allow Trump to hang on.
New Monmouth Florida poll gives Trump a 38-30 lead over Rubio. However the poll claims 19 percent already voted and they broke big to Rubio, 48-23. Trump has a big lead on those who have yet to vote.
Cruz is the wild card here. He can hurt Rubio enough to allow Trump to hang on.
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