Posted on 03/07/2016 6:45:53 AM PST by Hojczyk
Trump finished very close to where he was projected to finish in all four elections. The reason he underperformed, winning just two of the four states up for grabs, is because Ted Cruz overperformed dramatically. And the reason Cruz overperformed is starkly clear in Cohns graph, namely, a broad chunk of Rubios support collapsed out from under him and shifted to Cruz. According to Alexis Levinson, Rubio banked 20.1 percent of the early vote in Louisiana but just 9.4 percent(!) of the ballots cast yesterday.
Check WaPos early vote/election day comparison map of Louisiana and youll see Rubios early strength vanish before your very eyes, replaced by a late surge for Cruz. When the first returns in Louisiana were reported last night, showing Trump up more than 20 points based on early voting, the networks promptly called the state for him and pronounced it another demonstration of his power in the south. And then, for the next two hours, everyone watched as Cruz surged closer and closer at one point coming within three points, leading data nerds on Twitter to howl that the networks should un-call the race. Trump held on to win by less than four points, in a state where RCPs final poll average had him ahead by nearly 16.
Rubio, meanwhile, finished at a dismal 11.2 percent. That was symptomatic of a national trend yesterday, with Cruz doing better than expected and Rubio doing worse. Obviously, some significant number of pro-Rubio conservatives decided to vote strategically and support Cruz instead.
Graph
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/706337638912040960/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Trump wins the FL primary.
Maybe he can get a job at Trump’s hotel in Florida.
Yeah Joe, that pretty much sums it up. God, save the Republic.
Trump won’t hire a guy who doesn’t show up for work.
Rubio could be social director on a Cruz Ship
It was a joke and in fun. Freepers were there, read the thread;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3405625/posts?page=9#9
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First, I am not a Trumpster, I voted for Cruz Saturday.
Now to your comments.
A broad coalition of voters, you ask for what. The answer is to win elections.
What does he stand for you ask, and answer that he is an asshole. I would ask what is it he has done to deserve this moniker. I would note that he has anonymously helped people who in no way could ever help him back. What other candidate has done this. What person has he verbally attacked who did not deserve every word he gave them save perhaps Jeb Bush.
Was George W. Bush a great president? He had some good qualities but spent money like a drunken sailor, I'd love to have him back if it would get rid of Obummer but I think we can do better.
Trump is a business man. Businessmen are people who see the facts and then make decisions based on them, not how good the decision feels or how much the press smiles at it.
I hope Cruz wins but if Trump wins the nomination I will very gladly vote for him.
When people start talking about someone and say the same things the press says about someone then they should examine why they parrot the press which is simply a wing of the Democrat party.
Hey, don't be talking about Ted Cruz that way. You are officially reprimanded.
It was a joke and in fun. Freepers were there, read the thread;
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That may concern me even more. Did he not know how that stunt would play in the media?
It will get legs and it will cost him support and votes.
So again I ask, rhetorically, why did he do it?
Early voting has started here in Florida
Rubio will not win
Thanks for the ping Joe...
Ohio polling is already pretty tight. That’s the one to watch.
Big IF
high potential for fraud in both states
trust electronic ballot machines much?
He owns the media cycle - again. He ALWAYS flips this kind of thing for his own good. It will make the media look stupid. Think about it - if Ted lets out a peep about it Trump can bring up Beck “swearing in” Cruz. If what Trump did is so serious, so is what Beck did.
Trump wins.
People always make the mistake that Trump shoots from the hip, that he doesn’t think things through before talking. They are wrong. He flipped the “hands” issue at the press conference on the 5th. A stupid reporter brought it up - even other reporters booed him. Anyway Trump said Rubio started it and that you have to call out that kind of stuff - and then said that he would do the same for our country. Trump wins. He’s a master at this.
We also need to factor in Carson votes as well.
Law of unintended consequences. Romney effect.
I don’t see Cruz with wide appeal in FL. I’m from N Fl and its conservative and its Christian but its not that evangelical. Rubio is not well loved in FL so Trump should take it with ease.
Trump will win both Florida and Ohio at this point. Momentum is in his favor and not Rubio or Kaisch who neither have a chance of winning at this point. Very few people want the GOPe to have that brokered convention.
LoL, someone said the only way to destroy Trump is for the MSM and the GOPe to join forces and endorse Trump, sign the praises of Trump Presidency!!!
So, after the MSM and the GOPe carry little Marco on their shoulders, give him one of JEB genius’s, Marco collaspes!!!!!
Evrything the GOPe touches turns to crap
I saw on facebook that some Cruz supporters are trying to pull together a way to bump rubio over Trump by voting for Rubio rather than Cruz. They figured that since Cruz is such a long shot - it would be better to boost Rubio to take the win from Trump.
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