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Ted Cruz Has a Huge Math Problem
Five Thirty Eight .com ^ | 2/19/2016 | David Wasserman

Posted on 02/22/2016 11:31:28 AM PST by Jack Black

Ted Cruz may have a knack for the debate stage and a disciplined, data-driven campaign, but he may also have a huge viability problem.

Cruz’s short-term dilemma has received plenty of attention: Donald Trump is on the verge of a big victory in the South Carolina Republican primary, according to most polls, and could easily capture all 50 of the Palmetto State’s delegates. And if Cruz can’t beat Trump in South Carolina — a Southern state with a large proportion of evangelical and very conservative voters, Cruz’s supposed bread and butter — what “SEC Primary” states can he win on Super Tuesday, March 1?

But Cruz also faces a longer-term, potentially more devastating math problem that has received less attention: The states that are his most natural fits — those with the highest proportions of evangelical voters — are also the least likely to award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. In other words, Cruz’s votes may not translate into delegates nearly as efficiently as his rivals’.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; cruz; dracula; duplicatepost; gopnomination
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To: bigbob
This ain/t happening either.

Cruz lost Evangelical votes even after Glenn Beck assured us that
Cruz was sent by God to guide us thru the Rapture of winning SC.

Cruz/s wife Heidi said Ted would show us the face of God (above).

As the old saying goes....man proposes....God disposes.

21 posted on 02/22/2016 12:20:30 PM PST by Liz (SAFE PLACE? A liberal's mind. Nothing's there. Nothing can penetrate it.)
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To: ifinnegan
Trump is not GopE. He does not let moderators in debates control him like Candy. He is proud of his wealth and work ethic. He has attacked the establishment. Cruz supporters should quit bashing and promote Ted.
22 posted on 02/22/2016 12:28:33 PM PST by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: nascarnation
Cruz is young enough that he still has time to get some facial plastic surgery to lessen his "creep" factor (nose shadow over upper lip and droopy eyes). Then he should work with some Hollywood types to make his facial expressions, body language, and diction friendlier. Finally, he should work with a better comedian regarding his timing and delivery of his not-very-funny nerd jokes.

Guess 2016 just isn't his year.

23 posted on 02/22/2016 12:32:12 PM PST by MHT (,`)
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To: Liz

Don’t forget the claim that God took Scalia to underscore our need for Cruz. The idea that God would decide matters of life and death based on the potential to help Cruz’ campaign took many aback.


24 posted on 02/22/2016 12:33:28 PM PST by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: DiogenesLamp

AMEN! If you have an open primary you are having nothing but a series of general elections where the enemy helps select your candidate. A state with an open primary is doing a disservice to both parties and their citizens. But the powers that be in both parties want it this way to help maneuver their chosen crooks into the general election.

33% of Trumps voters were democrats, why in hell are they voting in a Republican primary? If South Carolina has a closed primary, Cruz or the Rube win and Linda Graham is no longer a senator and go back to hooking in drag.


25 posted on 02/22/2016 12:40:06 PM PST by sarge83
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To: Fantasywriter

Cockeyed....


26 posted on 02/22/2016 12:40:13 PM PST by Liz (SAFE PLACE? A liberal's mind. Nothing's there. Nothing can penetrate it.)
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To: MHT

Speech therapy would also help. A video surfaced some weeks ago of Cruz speaking ~seven years ago. A hardcore Cruz supporter noted how much easier and more pleasant he was to listen to back then. In the interim, he’s slowed his speech to an Al Gore rhythm and cadence, and a stronger Mr Haney/televangelist inflection has emerged.


27 posted on 02/22/2016 12:40:53 PM PST by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: Fantasywriter

His presentations are sooooo condescending, like everyone else didn’t go to Harvard or work at Goldman so they are stupid. And his wife needs some serious work, also. Like therapy....maybe meds. She was found by cops out walking around in the nightgown on the streets and they said she suffered from depression. They did prayer therapy instead of medication. Perhaps they should rethink that remedy if she is seeing the face of God in her husband. Definitely a sign of schizophrenia .


28 posted on 02/22/2016 12:45:02 PM PST by MHT (,`)
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To: MHT

I hope and pray Heidi is much better now and flourishing. That incident you mentioned troubles me. Prayers for the whole family.

Condescension is the hallmark of an Al Gore presentation. When Cruz starts evoking shades of Gore in his listeners, there is a problem.


29 posted on 02/22/2016 12:57:24 PM PST by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: sarge83

“33% of Trumps voters were democrats”

Wow. That’s hard to believe. I haven’t heard that. Where was this reported?


30 posted on 02/22/2016 1:04:14 PM PST by map
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To: sarge83
33% of Trumps voters were democrats, why in hell are they voting in a Republican primary? If South Carolina has a closed primary, Cruz or the Rube win and Linda Graham is no longer a senator and go back to hooking in drag.

I hadn't thought of that before. An Open Primary explains how that pansy @$$ Lindsay Graham keeps getting elected.

31 posted on 02/22/2016 1:05:17 PM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: Jack Black; All

The effort by the media is focusing on the evangelist vote and Trumps lead in that group.When they had a heavy hand in helping Trump.

Some fundamentalists have a thing against Catholics particularly the Pope. That story the MSM conjured up about the pope singling out Trump being a non christian may have turned this for Trump within that group.

Here the pope was responding to a question by a reporter. from Reuters news agency.But the pope never mentioned Trumps name in his lengthy reply ,which btw was carried by Limbaugh; It was this; expressed here in abstract;

Here the pope used the term One, to generalize his example and began with; If actually one said ( but Trumps name was inserted here by MSM ) and continued with : one does, one did, one believes : such and such in his response to a rather lenghty question by a so called reporter.. it was meant to be a generalized position applied to anyone who has those views.

Trump responded to what he thought was a direct persomal attack by the Pope which was shared and agreed to by everybody including this Catholic and what they were responding is to Trump in effect telling the pope to go to hell which made the difference.

If they voted that way because of that reason they were mislead by machinations of the media not the pope. Now the media anti religious agenda is busy claiming Cruz error was in appealing by mentioning: marriage, planned parenthood, abortion and the questioning of positions raken by Trump. Which diverts the attention from the media and its involvement while minimizing the Cruz candidacy.


32 posted on 02/22/2016 1:05:30 PM PST by mosesdapoet (My best insights get lost in FR's becaus e of meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: map

It was on Rush and it may have been 33% of the voters in the Republican primary were dems. if so I apologize I heard it in the car coming back to work from lunch. Still an amazing number!


33 posted on 02/22/2016 1:21:33 PM PST by sarge83
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To: bigbob

Trump is like Romney in they are East Coast multi-millionaires elites who have held liberal social views until they ran for national office.


34 posted on 02/22/2016 1:24:15 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: sarge83

I heard Rush as well. I thought he said that Trump got 33% of Democrat crossovers and Rubio and Cruz got 19% and 17%. I guess we’ll have to wait for the transcript to be sure.


35 posted on 02/22/2016 1:26:03 PM PST by map
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To: Jack Black

IF you are looking at any of the most recent polling Trump is stating to show 50% and greater many states


36 posted on 02/22/2016 2:19:20 PM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: ifinnegan

I understand that view. I think there are a number of things he would shake up significantly in Washington and a number of things would be left as is. I am not so sure the consultant class would be quite as powerful after trump as they have been the past few cycles. He’s about results and not graft. That said, what happens if it’s a trump candidacy or trump presidency really cannot be predicted.


37 posted on 02/22/2016 2:20:30 PM PST by ilgipper
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To: mosesdapoet
I think it's a lot simpler than that, vis-a-vis the Pope and Trump.

The Pope is all in on supporting the invasion of the USA by Mexicans and Central Americans. His reasons for this are obviously self-serving: the vast majority are Catholics, so he keeps "butts in the pews" in the USA, where many 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th generation Catholics are falling away from the faith.

Regardless of the wording of the specific statement in question the actions of the Pope and the Catholic church have been pro immigrant for years.

So, Trump, as the leading anti-immigration, and anti-illegal immigration candidate is clearly at odds with the Pope and the church he heads on this issue.

38 posted on 02/22/2016 4:42:37 PM PST by Jack Black ( "Disarmament of a targeted group is one of the surest early warning signs of future genocide")
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To: Jack Black

There is no such thing as a quote, Hispanic race, unquote.It is a strawman invented by so called liberals. That term has been applied to those from individual South American countries some of which have governments hostile to US and actually claim parts of this country as theirs, and others which are friendly. They are composed of various races as we are, with the difference being their primary common language is Spanish.

Besides flooding the labor market with cheap labor which reduces job opportunities for American citizens in a diminishing base. Highly infectious comunicable diseases are also pouring through this uncontrolled border creating serious health problems.

This destructive utopian Mexican open border approach of even considering granting those who enter the US illegally through it. Entitlement to all benefits beyond those of what we give to our citizens destroys the value of an American citizenship. It is being promoted by the name callers mostly in socialist circles such as the democrat party as well some republicans who use such terms as nativist promoting racial division .

What we should be doing is taking a very very hard look at our relationship with Mexico along with trade and its myriad misstreatment of Americans as 3rd class citizens and its claims on American territory . There is no doubt there are hundreds of complaints, if not thousands, from American citizens who have retired there. Along with travelers running to American consulates about conditions that are going unreported because of this Mexican policy

While we are expected to allow Mexican citizens enter to our country illegally and offer them preferential treatment over our citizens allowing them to purchase land in their own name and and even voting privledges which they cannot do if they choose to retire in Mexico.

The leading Republican candidates and that includes Trump may mention some of this but thus far have refused to identify the problem let alone properly redress it by suggesting or implementing reciprocity.

Since the Mexicans are permitting foreigners transit through their country for illegal entry into ours. Any person entering illegally through that open border whether a bona fide citizen of Mexico or not should be treated as if they were a Mexican and tossed back to Mexico and let Mexico deal with them. Illegals should be offered the same rights as Americans. No property ownership and voting rights let alone access to the multitude of costly programs comm9ng out of US taxpayer pockets.

If reciprocity were implemented there would be no need to worry about who will pay for walls or border fences.Illegals would leave on their own accord . And the value of being an American citizen restored.


39 posted on 02/22/2016 8:19:06 PM PST by mosesdapoet (My best insights get lost in FR's becaus e of meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: Jack Black

There is no such thing as a quote, Hispanic race, unquote.It is a strawman invented by so called liberals. That term has been applied to those from individual South American countries some of which have governments hostile to US and actually claim parts of this country as theirs, and others which are friendly. They are composed of various races as we are, with the difference being their primary common language is Spanish.

Besides flooding the labor market with cheap labor which reduces job opportunities for American citizens in a diminishing base. Highly infectious comunicable diseases are also pouring through this uncontrolled border creating serious health problems.

This destructive utopian Mexican open border approach of even considering granting those who enter the US illegally through it. Entitlement to all benefits beyond those of what we give to our citizens destroys the value of an American citizenship. It is being promoted by the name callers mostly in socialist circles such as the democrat party as well some republicans who use such terms as nativist promoting racial division .

What we should be doing is taking a very very hard look at our relationship with Mexico along with trade and its myriad misstreatment of Americans as 3rd class citizens and its claims on American territory . There is no doubt there are hundreds of complaints, if not thousands, from American citizens who have retired there. Along with travelers running to American consulates about conditions that are going unreported because of this Mexican policy

While we are expected to allow Mexican citizens enter to our country illegally and offer them preferential treatment over our citizens allowing them to purchase land in their own name and and even voting privledges which they cannot do if they choose to retire in Mexico.

The leading Republican candidates and that includes Trump may mention some of this but thus far have refused to identify the problem let alone properly redress it by suggesting or implementing reciprocity.

Since the Mexicans are permitting foreigners transit through their country for illegal entry into ours. Any person entering illegally through that open border whether a bona fide citizen of Mexico or not should be treated as if they were a Mexican and tossed back to Mexico and let Mexico deal with them. Illegals should be offered the same rights as Americans. No property ownership and voting rights let alone access to the multitude of costly programs comm9ng out of US taxpayer pockets.

If reciprocity were implemented there would be no need to worry about who will pay for walls or border fences.Illegals would leave on their own accord . And the value of being an American citizen restored.


40 posted on 02/22/2016 8:22:41 PM PST by mosesdapoet (My best insights get lost in FR's becaus e of meaningless venting no one reads.)
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