Posted on 02/19/2016 2:59:33 PM PST by Trumpinator
Gwynne Dyer: Turks and Saudis know any Russia fight will be lonely one
9:32 AM Wednesday Feb 17, 2016
Between last Thursday and Monday, the Turkish government, in league with Saudi Arabia, made a tentative decision to enter the war on the ground in Syria - and then got cold feet about it. Or more likely, the Turkish army simply told the government that it would not invade Syria and risk the possibility of a shooting war with the Russians.
The Turkish government bears a large share of the responsibility for the devastating Syrian civil war. From the start, Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was publicly committed to overthrowing the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. For five years he kept Turkey's border with Syria open so that arms, money and volunteers could flow across to feed the rebellion.
Erdogan's hatred of Assad is rooted in the fact that he is a militant Sunni Muslim while Assad leads a regime dominated by Shia Muslims. Both men rule countries that are officially secular, but Erdogan's long-term goal is to impose Islamic religious rule on Turkey.
Assad is defending the multi-ethnic, multi-faith traditional character of Syrian society - while also running a brutally repressive regime. Neither man gives a fig for democracy.
Saudi Arabia has been Erdogan's main ally in the task of turning Syria into a Sunni-ruled Islamic state (although 30 per cent of Syrians are not Sunni Muslims). Together these countries and some smaller Gulf states subverted the original non-violent movement in Syria that was demanding a secular democracy, and then armed and supplied the Sunni-dominated armed rebellion that replaced it.
The US government also wanted to see Assad's regime destroyed (for strategic reasons, not religious ones). So for years Washington turned a blind eye to the fact that its allies, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, were actually supporting the extremists of Islamic State (Isis) and the Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's franchise in Syria.
Largely as a result of that support, these two extremist organisations now completely dominate the Syrian revolt against Assad's rule, accounting for 80-90 per cent of the active fighters. Turkey and Saudi Arabia finally broke their ties with Islamic State last year, but they still back the Nusra Front, which has camouflaged itself behind an array of minor "moderate" groups in the so-called "Army of Islam".
When the Nusra Front, with strong Turkish support, overran much of northwestern Syria last spring, Russia finally went to the aid of its long-standing ally, the Syrian government. Russian air power helped the Syrian army push back the troops of both the Nusra Front and Islamic State. Erdogan pushed back, ordering Turkish fighters to shoot down a Russian bomber last November.
Even at the time, however, it was clear that the Turkish army was very unhappy about the prospect of a military clash with Russia. It doesn't share Erdogan's dream of an Islamist-ruled Syria either. Meanwhile the Russian bombs kept falling, the Syrian army went on advancing, and now it has cut the main supply line from Turkey to the rebels in and around Aleppo.
Erdogan is frustrated and angry, and he now has an equally reckless ally in Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi deputy Crown Prince and defence minister. Over the past week these two men appear to have talked themselves into a limited military incursion into Syria to push the regime's troops back and reopen the supply lines to the rebels.
On Sunday the Turkish army began shelling Syrian Kurdish forces. On Monday Assad's government complained to the UN that about a hundred "Turkish soldiers or mercenaries" had crossed the border into Syria. But at that point the grown-ups took over, and the Turkish defence minister denied that there was any intention to invade Syria.
France publicly warned Turkey to end its attacks, and there were doubtless secret but frantic warnings to the same effect from Turkey's other Nato allies. Turkey (and Saudi Arabia) have almost certainly been put on notice that if they choose to start a local war with Russian forces in Syria, they will have to fight it alone.
So that is probably the end of that, and everybody can get back to the business of partitioning Syria - which is what all the talk of a "cessation of hostilities" is really about.
Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.
Born in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, 17 April 1943. Educated at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, B.A. in History, 1963; Rice University in Houston, Texas, U.S.A., M.A. in Military History, 1966; King's College, University of London, Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History, 1973. Served as Reserve Naval Officer in Royal Canadian Naval Reserve, 1956-64, 1966-68; U.S. Naval Reserve, 1964-66; British Royal Navy Reserve, 1968-73. Employed as a lecturer in military history, Canadian Forces College in Toronto, Ontario; senior lecturer in war studies, Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, England, 1973-77; producer of various radio and television special series from 1978; syndicated columnist, international affairs from 1973. Recipient: International Film Festival Awards; International Film Festival Awards, 1984; Best Writing Gemini for The Space Between, 1986.
Hope they packed some body bags,they’re gonna need them.
I’ll skip the popcorn and go right for the bourbon if that happens.
“Oh how ironic it is that the Russians are on the right side of this war”
They’re still on the side of Iran, Hezbollah and Assad right? The side that’s slaughtered a quarter of a million civilians and has terrorized much of the Syrian population into fleeing west? What in the world are you talking about?
And whats the other option? Let assad fall, we saw what happened when Mubarak was thrown out of power in Egypt and elections were held, the muslim brotherhood won the elections.
Assad is bad, the alternative is worse
“The battle would be Turkish tanks vs Russian Air.
Turkey does not have the air power to defend those tanks from the Russian Air Force.”
Russia can’t resupply their forces in Syria by air without flying through NATO air space. They can’t quickly resupply by water without sailing through Turkish waters. And Turkey has far more air assets in the region including enough in air defenses to shoot down anything the Russians put in the air FROM Turkey. This is Turkey’s home field. The Russians are going to avoid direct conflict with turkey there if they can. That’s why they’re starting this whole UNSC circus over the issue.
Oh and what happened in the last elections held in Palestine? Hamas won fair and square.
Sorry but its better to have a dictator like Assad or Sisi in control of muslim nations then allowing them to vote.
“Assad is bad, the alternative is worse”
The alternative is not worse. This is the Assad family’s second round of mass exterminations in support of their regime. Hundreds of thousands of people slaughtered to keep a 15% minority population in charge of a nation tens of millions of people of different religions and ethnicities who hate them and each other. There’s no Assad option for an end to this conflict.
So what? They are muslims
M-60 vs T-72 upgraded = no contest.
M-60 vs T-90 = target practice.
“Oh and what happened in the last elections held in Palestine? Hamas won fair and square.
Sorry but its better to have a dictator like Assad or Sisi in control of muslim nations then allowing them to vote.”
What does that have to do with anything? Most of the countries in the region other than Israel are dictatorships. Most of them are our allies, at least nominally. Iran and Syria are our enemies and Hezbollah is an international terrorist organization. Russia is only supporting them as a strategic counterbalance against our influence in the region. You’re cheerleading our nation’s enemies for what reason exactly? Syria/Iran/Hezbollah have murdered far more people than Isis can even dream of. Over the years they’ve conspired to kill more Americans than any nation or group of nations since the end of the Vietnam war. Iran has a long term dream to turn that axis into a nuclear power. They’re pretty much never the lesser of any two sets of evils.
“I wonder if the Iranians would get involved. The Saudis against the Iranians would be popcorn time.”
I think they already had all they wanted and bugged out. They are probably more concerned with Saudi Arabia directly.
“So what? They are muslims”
I’m not even going to address the silliness of that comment directly, but in point of fact they are Muslims, Christians, Kurds of all stripes and Druze. It’s one of the most ethnically and religiously diverse regions on earth. And innocent men, women and children don’t deserve to be slaughtered by their government no matter their religious leanings. And certainly not with us cheering their government on.
“If all else fails Russia nukes the sand. If you are going to use a nuke - an arid land full of Muslims is a no brainier for Putin. It would send a message to NATO and the EU about eastern expansion to boot.”
I agree with you. I also wonder how much of the military Tayyip can afford to send out of country when the country itself is restive.
Because what would replace Assad would even be worse.
DO i like Assad? No but all the major anti assad groups are radical muslims. The largest anti Assad force is Ahrar ash-Sham is basically diet al qaeda. They are aligned with nusra.
Zahran Alloush who was the leader of Army of Islam (until Russians killed him in December) has praised bin laden repeatedly for the 911 attacks. Army of Islam is the second largest anti assad faction besides nusra and isis
So that’s what you get with Assad gone.
Oh and lets look at the islamic front, another “moderate” anti assad faction, only problem is that they are also diet al qaeda, they are a saudi proxy that promotes radical wahbisism
Russia can fly over the Caspian, through Iran and Iraq to reach Syria.
If Turkey puts their aircraft over Syria, they would be shot down.
If they fire on Russian aircraft from Turkey, it's ON and NATO won't intervene.
The Saudis also have ABM defense systems—the western kind, the kind that work.
Turkey and Russia have gone at each other many times going back to the time of the Tsars. The army knows that going after Russia is a bad idea.
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