Posted on 02/18/2016 7:00:29 AM PST by Kaslin
Many a political pundit was stunned to hear Donald Trump's blunt attacks on President George W. Bush in a debate held last week in South Carolina. Trump severely criticized Bush's alleged failure to prevent 9/11 and his decision to invade Iraq. And when Trump called Ted Cruz a liar to his face, the gauntlet had truly been thrown down. Trump even muttered that Planned Parenthood did some good things, quickly adding that abortion was not one of them.
Most talking heads and political writers deemed Trump's performance a disaster. Even his own supporters feared the results of the post-debate polls. But a funny thing happened on the way to Trump's presumed demise. The subsequent polls in South Carolina showed Trump maintaining his lead by double digits. I doubt that Trump gambles much at the casinos, but in business he has likely rolled the dice quite often, and not always to his advantage. But this time he may have hit the jackpot.
By attacking the Bush family, Trump moved the political dialogue to a Trump-versus-Bush war of words. That only intensified coverage of former President George W. Bush's campaign appearance in South Carolina for brother Jeb, just days after the debate. The result of that strategy seemed to shift momentum for the second- or third-place spots in the primary a bit towards Jeb Bush. As the primary neared, it was increasingly looking like Bush and Rubio -- they call the two candidates "Jebio" in the Florida media -- were close to each other in the polls. Bush was gaining attention and momentum and Rubio, at least at mid-week, was stuck in neutral.
As for Trump's declaration that Ted Cruz is a liar and plays dirty politics, again, the post -debate polling suggested that Cruz was frozen in his tracks, gaining little from the exchange. In fact, both a poll for CNN and an Opinion Savvy tracking poll indicated that Trump still held a huge lead over Cruz, the presumed darling of evangelical voters, among respondents to the polls who proclaimed themselves Christian conservative.
So, was Trump's seemingly out-of-control performance the work of a madman or a genius? At mid-week before the Saturday primary, it appeared that it was the latter. Trump had managed to stall Cruz and Rubio and to elevate Bush. Trump would like his final showdown for the nomination to be against Bush, whom he views as the personification of establishment Republicans in a very anti-establishment year.
There is one wrinkle in Trump's strategy. His attacks on Cruz have seemingly worked. But his kind words towards Planned Parenthood have been turned into a powerful attack ad to help Cruz attempt to reclaim evangelical voters. With two CNN town-hall-style debates looming and that particular attack ad running, Cruz might eat into Trump's final numbers when the votes in South Carolina are counted.
Regardless of the outcome of the last debate to be held, it is clear that in South Carolina, just as in New Hampshire, Trump has a solid 30 percent-plus who will stick with him through thick and thin. That means, absent a total collapse, Trump leaves South Carolina either with another win or at least another solid performance.
And with polls showing Trump with large leads in the upcoming southern states that will make up the bulk of the March 1 "Super Tuesday" vote, it would seem that the GOP "establishment" may have missed its chance to cut off Trump at the pass in South Carolina.
Interestingly, the obvious stacking of the debate halls with longtime GOP movers and shakers may turn out to have been the most important reason for Trump's ability not only to survive but to thrive after each event. Think about it: The man fills large arenas for his own campaign appearances, yet everyone at the GOP-sponsored debates boo and hiss him. It doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to understand what's going on in those stacked debates. And those who already support Trump are just more determined to support him when they witness the obvious.
So as the GOP establishment has gambled without success with the stacked debate halls, Trump has gambled with obviously controversial statements, all of them designed to determine the final contestants he will face on his way to the likely determinative winner-take-all Florida primary next month.
ush and Rubio — they call the two candidates “Jebio”
I tend to go with “Rubbush”...
I’m sure Trump won’t miss me. He was just my #2 choice.
What made him interesting was his absolute clarity on national sovereignty. He has got lost on the weeds. He needs to find his way back to what made him a candidate in the first place.
The Fox post-debate poll in South Carolina shows that Trump is still up by double digits.
Trump is thinking ahead about the general election.
He will redraw the electoral map.
Many a political pundit was stunned to hear Donald Trump’s blunt attacks on President George W. Bush in a debate held last week in South Carolina. Trump severely criticized Bush’s alleged failure to prevent 9/11 and his decision to invade Iraq. And when Trump called Ted Cruz a liar to his face, the gauntlet had truly been thrown down. Trump even muttered that Planned Parenthood did some good things, quickly adding that abortion was not one of them.
Most talking heads and political writers deemed Trump’s performance a disaster. Even his own supporters feared the results of the post-debate polls. But a funny thing happened on the way to Trump’s presumed demise. The subsequent polls in South Carolina showed Trump maintaining his lead by double digits. I doubt that Trump gambles much at the casinos, but in business he has likely rolled the dice quite often, and not always to his advantage. But this time he may have hit the jackpot.
By attacking the Bush family, Trump moved the political dialogue to a Trump-versus-Bush war of words. That only intensified coverage of former President George W. Bush’s campaign appearance in South Carolina for brother Jeb, just days after the debate. The result of that strategy seemed to shift momentum for the second- or third-place spots in the primary a bit towards Jeb Bush. As the primary neared, it was increasingly looking like Bush and Rubio — they call the two candidates “Jebio” in the Florida media — were close to each other in the polls. Bush was gaining attention and momentum and Rubio, at least at mid-week, was stuck in neutral.
As for Trump’s declaration that Ted Cruz is a liar and plays dirty politics, again, the post -debate polling suggested that Cruz was frozen in his tracks, gaining little from the exchange. In fact, both a poll for CNN and an Opinion Savvy tracking poll indicated that Trump still held a huge lead over Cruz, the presumed darling of evangelical voters, among respondents to the polls who proclaimed themselves Christian conservative.
deja vu and deja vu again!
If either one would get the nomination, you realize they couldn’t choose the other one as running mate unless one of them would move to another state?
We heard 8 years of anti-Bush by the Dems. By the time they got through, Repubs were pouring on.
The poll that counts in South Carolina is the one on Saturday, when the SC voters actually vote in the primary. Not before
In about a day and 1/2 the voting will begin in South Carolina. About 8pm that
evening we’ll begin to get results showing how effective each campaign was or wasn’t.
Trump plays to win. He’s a killer. Anyone who thinks that he didn’t have a clear cut idea of exactly how to win is delusional. That strategy included every word that comes out of this mouth. Every. Word.
Correct
It’s a setup for Hillary who voted for the war. Brilliant.
Just because people don’t have the strategic vision to see what Trump is doing doesn’t make Trump stupid. It’s makes them stupid.
Blah, blah, blah.....................
Dirty little secrets:
McCain was not what he is cracked up to be.(Who single-handedly stopped ALL EFFORTS to get more POWs from the NVA?) (AND why?)
Cruz IS a backstabbing liar. (What happened to the late lamented TEA party, and WHY?)
NEITHER Cruze nor Ruuubeeoo are qualified under the DAMN CONSTITUTION. (BOTH mommy AND daddy have to be citizens at sonny’s birth. It is NOT the location of mommy’s VJ that is critical.)
(NEITHER daddy was, BTW— that is END OF STORY if the constitution means anything anymore.)
AND (Hello—what about the guy residing TODAY at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave...................................?)
Exactly, he’s setting up for Hillary. People forget Hillary voted for the war.
Trump is playing so many moves ahead of what we are used to seeing. People don’t see it then criticize him for shooting from the hip and being off the cuff. They think he’s stupid. But he’s NOT the stupid one. Anyone who underestimates Trump is stupid.
GW would not have been an issue here had he kept his mouth shut which he did for 7 years while the country went down the drain under Odumbo and the GOPe.
Fixed.
Especially after he "legalizes" 11 million illegal aliens with his touchback amnesty. He'll be untouchable and won't need to fake being a conservative any more. Hell, if I were Mexico I'd pay for that "wall" too.
Enjoy the ride chump.
Yup. Hillary voters aren't really strong. Hillary IS establishment and her position was the establishment position. Everything Trump has been saying is anti-establishment. He's already playing this out months down the road.
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