Posted on 02/16/2016 10:55:59 AM PST by usafa92
Donald Trump continues to grow his lead in Virginia as he leads Marco Rubio by 14 points - 33%-19%.
Trump's lead has grown since we last polled Virginia back in early January, when he had a 28% share of likely primary voters' support. John Kasich and Marco Rubio have also seen gains of 13 and 5 points respectively. Cruz is currently down 7 points from the previous poll while Ben Carson has seen his support drop 9 points.
A lot has happened in the last five weeks, but it looks as though John Kasich has received a lot of the support that would have gone to opponents who have dropped out of the race. If things continue this way, Kasich could be a contender for the title of "Trump Alternative" for the Republican Party.
It's likely that we will see at least one more dropout immediately after Super Tuesday, if not before and that appears to be Ben Carson. A poor showing in South Carolina this weekend would all but end his campaign. It also wouldn't be surprising if we had at least another dropout on March 2nd (other than Carson), but that second potential dropout is completely up in the air. While it would be hard to see Rubio or Cruz dropping out so early, a number of poor showings on March 1st could put any candidate on ice.
(Excerpt) Read more at overtimepolitics.com ...
Trump Virginia Poll Pong.
WOOHOO!!! GO.TRUMP.GO!!!
Super Tuesday trending toward Trump landslide.
Yeb! anyone? :-)
...... On the Republican side, the result confirms the conventional wisdom that, outside of the early voting states, this is becoming a three-man race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, with Rubio ascending. The top line result shows Trump at 28%, Rubio at 22%, and Cruz at 19%. The rest of the pack is rapidly fading, with Jeb Bush and John Kasich both at 7%, and Carson at 4%."..... New Virginia Poll Shows the Race Clarifying
Yep...That’s why I pinged you on this...to counter the garbage you throw all over the place with Trump. After Trump cleans up on Saturday in SC and then in Nevada on the 23rd, Trump is going to be on a serious roll. In the meantime, Cruz is tanking big time. BTW - your little Christopher Newport Univ polling firm is rated a C+ with a sample marging error of 7.1...Basically a garbage poll...
What is your poll rated?
A third of “Republicans” are ready for a liberal idiot who will go down in flames
If Trump is ahead in Va, he is well on the way.
Okay, Cruz is winning from behind.
You said that the poll I cite “has a sample margin error of 7.1...”
The poll I linked has a +/- of 4.3% margin of error and samples registered voters.
http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/feb%2016%202016%20report-_final.pdf
Your poll has a margin of error of 5% and is conducted by live interviewers pulling number from public phone record searches and cell phone lists [where people who answer their phones are asked if they are R or D).
Whoa. Looks like Cruz is slipping in the polls. Would Virginia be considered a Southern State? I would think so and the South are the states the Cruzbots said that Ted would do well in. GO TRUMP GO
Cruz had secret army. Cruz Army is doing lousy job.
Better than yours...
Nevada and Virginia are for Trump by more than double digits.
South Carolina RCP average of several polls Trump plus 18.5%.
Look at the graph under the polls, Trump is going up Rafael is going down to Rubio’s line.
Limbaugh just lied said Cruz is gaining support, Rush is full of Crap. I was in a car as a passenger and the driver wanted to listen to Rush. I don’t trust what Rush says. These polls prove Rush is FOS.
"All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey's design effect, which is 1.4 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey's deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples have a higher margin of error. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Virginia."
This is "my" poll:
"The results of this poll are based on 735 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 408 on landline and 327 on cell phone, conducted Feb. 3 - 14, 2016. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.3% at the 95% level of confidence. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey's design effect, which is 1.4 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey's deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non - response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 25%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newpor t University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
: )
But two-thirds aren't. We just need to get 3 or 4 of the others out so they can coalesce around a legitimate Republican even if he's not AS conservative as I would like.
I'm Crus #1/ Anybody-but-Trump #2. If that ABT is Rubio or Kasich, so be it. I can live with that. But I'll never vote for Trust Fund Donnie.
Hank
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