Posted on 02/10/2016 10:23:20 AM PST by justlittleoleme
Cruz's win in the Iowa caucuses last week was, as it has been for every recent GOP Iowa winner, heavily reliant on evangelical Christians. He over-performed among this group, beating Trump 34-22 among them.
Two points here. The first is that, yes, Iowa is a very evangelical state, and not every state -- read: New Hampshire -- has the same makeup. In fact, New Hampshire is the least religious state in the country, according to Gallup, and PRRI reports only about 1 in 10 residents is an evangelical.
In this regard, though, the next few weeks of the GOP race look a whole lot more like Iowa than New Hampshire. And that is fantastic for Cruz.
-snip-
It may not shock you to see the most heavily-white-evangelical states clustered in the South. Many of them are significantly more evangelical than Iowa, where 64 percent of the GOP electorate last week was evangelical.
And here is the second point: The most evangelical states are pretty heavily front-loaded in this process -- thanks in large part to the "SEC Primary" on March 1.
South Carolina on Feb. 20 and a whopping six of the 11 states holding contests on Super Tuesday/"SEC Primary" Day on the first of March have more evangelicals than Iowa does.
And here's where it gets even better for Cruz: Heavily Christian Kansas and Louisiana and heavily evangelical Kentucky vote just four days later on March 5, followed by heavily evangelical Mississippi on March 8 and heavily evangelical Missouri and North Carolina on March 15. In fact, if you exclude Maryland and West Virginia from the definition of "Southern," the Southern states will all have voted five weeks from now.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Because everyone whom is an “evangelical” will of course vote for Cruz. Because independent decisions are completely foreign to the one denomination (hint: It isnt one) that this group supposedly belongs to.
I swear is this group supposed to be like the blacks of our side of the aisle? Some assumption that because they are “evangelical” Christians, they will automatically go for the guy that does the best preacher act?
It’s like Hillary going to black churches and turning her best southern twang, and then kicking back and waiting for the votes to pour in.
Cruz leaning on these people to this open extant makes him even less appealing as a general election candidate.
I think we need to STOP all of this crap with the Cruz supporters!!! Cruz supporters were VERY gracious last evening congratulating Trump supporters let’s ALL give it a rest!!!! I still want to see a TRUMP / CRUZ ticket!!!!
Trump +16.3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Trump got more NH votes from Evangelicals than Cruz
Those deceitful Iowa tricks of Cruz. Barring false witness against nice Doc Carson and the Shaming mail that was voter intimidation both seemed to hold Cruz back in NH.
Cruz got the same 11% as the polls said he had before IA
Cruz got no bounce. Cruz doesn’t really exhibit Christian values in what he does. All Talk. Ted Millhouse Cruz
If you shake his hand count your fingers afterward.
Exactly. The establishment would be defeated by a coalition of those two.
I hope they are wise enough to see that.
Unlike New Hampshire, conservatives in the south tend to be socially conservative as well as politically conservative. Cruz will no doubt hit Trump on his comments about gay rights, gay marriage, abortion, and other issues that will interest them more than they do northeastern voters.
Trump and Alan West, that would be a good ticket.
More attack from the left. That used to get the Viking Kitties sniffing around here. My, oh my. How far we have declined from being "premier online gathering place for independent, grass-roots conservatism on the web."
“Compost fluffs up cruise because they know he can be destroyed. Absolutely no path to the presidency.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Totally agree. Cruz may be able to conspire with the GOPe and the Uniparty media to win the nomination, but he has no chance in the general. I don’t see him winning any states that McRomney lost.
We get a Cruz or lose series of states next. If Cruz can’t pull off the SEC, it’s over. Trump wins.
We’ll see.
From the title, I thought this would be a Leon Wolf piece.
Nice try, except Trump does well with evangelicals as well. And Trump does well with conservative, moderate and liberal Republicans, while Cruz does terrible with moderate and liberal Republicans. And for states with open primaries, Trump blows the doors off everyone with support from unaffiliated voters. Cruz does horrendously with independents. So if Cruz faced Trump in a state with only evangelicals, Cruz might come out ahead more times than not, but unfortunately for Cruz, the Republican Party is made up of more than just a narrow group of evangelicals. If Cruz could break 20% in any national poll or state poll (besides Iowa) there might be some merit to the theory. However, he hasn’t, can’t and won’t. Cruz got smoked by 66,000 votes in NH. That’s unbelievable. 66,000! He has no appeal beyond evangelicals and some conservatives.
It’s really very simple. Trump is a national candidate, while Cruz is at best a regional candidate, but more realistically, he is a candidate that appeals to a narrow segment of the party. The reality is this. Trump is running a conservative campaign. You and all the Cruz supporters disagree, but the facts are that Trump is running a conservative campaign. Trump is going to win any state that Cruz would in the general, and Trump will win many more states that Cruz will have no chance in. So really Cruz brings nothing to the table nationally other than President Sanders or President Clinton.
Great, you might as well just stamp a great big “L” on the poor kids head. It has the same meaning.
Imagine Cruz picking our Supreme Court nominees, and Trump ramming them through.
I like that. I like that a lot.
Hey, I can dream right?
:-)
“Trump and Allen West, that would be a good ticket.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I am warming to that pairing very steadily.
Well the next 5 weeks will tell won’t they? Ted Cruz 2016 AND no second choice.
And Trump beat Cruz in other other single category.
Very well said!
Do this numbers include a cheat factor?
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