Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
Cruz didn’t spend any money in NH and came in third. He beat Jeb Bush who outspent him 62-1!
I think not.
Are people that stupid?
Dunno. Maybe we have to invoke the New Hampshire Exception Rule?
Voting for any politician is a risk, no matter who it is. We've seen over and over how they lie to get votes. We must all do the best job we can to select the candidate we agree with on the biggest issues, and hope for the best.
I'll cast my lot with Trump; at least he won't be in any donors pockets. I'm at peace with the decision. I assume your man is Cruz, and I wish you peace with your decision as well.
Would you please post the link to your information.Trump Wins Every Demographic, Including Beating Cruz by 12% for "very conservative" voters
That is my point, let the establishment candidates spend their capital attacking the insurgent candidates and each other. The insurgents shouldn’t attack each other; it will just create hard feelings between the Trump and Cruz supporters and help one of the establishment candidates eventually prevail.
It was a good night for Cruz for sure.
Thanks!
An exit poll.
I suppose a “very conservative” person in NH is a bit different than a “very conservative” person in, say, Texas.
I appreciate the link and the information.
As mentioned in the article, that SC poll is ancient.
Prolifers might be interested in reading this article before they vote:
“I Was Conceived in Rape, But Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are Okay If Iâd Been Aborted”
Speaking of Ted Cruz, he and Rubio, are the only ones who would support Rebecca, by not allowing her to be killed.
Rebecca is now a lawyer, and has five children of her own.
CHOOSE LIFE!
Trumpeteers said that in Iowa and its to be expected coming out of your little win in a blue state but South Carolina will put an end to your reckless speculation. Trump could just as likely face the same fate as Buchanan did after carrying New Hampshire.
Its Trump Cruz.The rest are part of the problem.
Boohoo, ya lose, again. You sure can pick’em. Bwahahahahahahshhaha!
That's the first thing you've said that makes any sense, Mr. Klein.
I love that.Thank you
Trump will have the Tea Party, he will need to reach towards women or minorities.
Oh my. . CW, it’s over.
Because distant third is the new win?
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