Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
Well there you go again, throwing that conservative term around...Is Cruz more conservative than Trump on removing illegal immigrants out and keeping them out??? Is Cruz more conservative on keeping terrorists out of the country??? Is Cruz more conservative than Trump on taking jobs back from China and Mexico??? Oh that's right...'Conservatives' don't care much about the average stiff who used to be called the middle class...
The number was like 64%...Seems he then should have gotten 64% of the votes...Maybe he did before they were counted...
That's why Trump is doing so well and Ted is not...
First off, we don't give a flip about the "Party"...The world doesn't have time for Cruz to fix the Party...That'll take years; decades...We don't have time for that...And we who support Trump know that...
If Cruz crushed Trump in Iowa, Trump AND Kasich obliterated Cruz in New Hampshire...Has any one checked to see if Cruz is still with us???
Likely True...We can only hope the Cruz supporters don't throw in with Bush or Kasich...If they go for Trump, the Independents and many conservative Democrats will push Trump over the top...
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You don’t know the voters in NC/SC like I do.
I’m telling you it’s very possible for Cruz to beat Trump in SC by 5-7% points.
Trump isn’t 1) A social Conservative/Evangelical Christian, that works against him
2) He’s not polite, and while that might carry him in some places with many voters, not in the South. I know many NC Republicans of different types and they don’t take to “crudity” and impolite demagoguery.
3) He’s not that conservative, and Cruz is and has a record
4) Though Democrats and Independents in theory ~could~ vote in the Republican Primary in SC, they’d have to have registered already as such as the deadline is Jan 20th.
5) I believe absentee balloting has already started which would favor candidates with the strongest ground game the most..that is reportedly Cruz.
4) The political dynamic with all the candidates still in I believe favors Cruz.
Disprove this if you want, I’d love to hear your arguments if you have any facts.
Beautiful.
My friend I grew up in North Carolina, most of my family still lives in North Carolina, my very first political event was a Jessie Helms rally in the town I lived in grade school, I am there quite frequently and I am telling you you are deluding yourself if you think in 9 days Cruz is going to double his poll numbers and Trumps are going to fall in half or more.
None of what you have put forth is anything new, do you think voters who are supporting Trump don’t know Trump? Trump is more known than anyone in the running, he’s been broadcast weekly into their homes for over a decade etc etc etc. Do you think any of what you have put forth isn’t something the majority of folks in SC supporting Trump don’t already know??? He isn’t some no name congressman that no one knows, you aren’t going to see him fall because folks have projected on him traits because they don’t know him.. This is part of why the many attempts by the press to Gotcha Trump have failed.
The arguments you are making don’t hold water, Cruz won’t get anywhere near Trumps poll numbers let along beat him by 7 or more points.
You are arguing on emotion not logic. Cruz has zero chance of suddenly doubling his polling, let along believe he’s going to do it at the expense of Trump.
Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, no doubt about it. But if you thing Cruz is going to double his numbers in 9 days while at the same time Trumps collapse you don’t know SC voters nearly as well as you think you do.
Time will tell, in 9 days we can revisit this thread and see who has to eat crow.
We will see, I still believe that if Cruz plays his cards right he can pull it out.
Tell us another whopper!
Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.
We don’t count Chickens we count votes!!!
Trump will do very well in the south.
They call Trump in the South A Yankee!!!
Don’t bet on Cruz not winning Florida!!! As for the North if it becomes one on one Mr. Cruz will do nicely!!!
Ok Trump won NH which is a Northern State/ Open Primary where everybody can vote. So Trump won Independents Moderates some Conservatives and Quit a few crossover Democrats.. Now we get to SC closed Primary and only Republicans can vote!!! Now Trump has a problem.. ^0 percent of the Republicans don’t like Trump!!!
I have been catching up on my jazz listening, rather than the talking heads.
If either Trump or Cruz win, think both with be strong leaders, with strong patriotism and a strong vision of what American should be restored to. They would be setting the agenda for the House and Senate to work on. So a house and senate brought in by their election will be helpful in turning the country around.
I agree we don’t want to take forever, but there are 3 branches of govt and you want them to be as much in sync as possible. We want to purge Washington of as much of the GOPe as possible, especially at the leadership level.
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