Posted on 02/09/2016 12:53:16 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
They might not make national headlines, but local endorsements in presidential primaries matter. According to the influential book "The Party Decides," such endorsements reveal party elites trying to come to a decision about which candidate they should mutually support. They are leading indicators of vote - and delegate - outcomes. In many ways, they are better at predicting how the race will turn out than opinion polls.
As we'll explain below, in New Hampshire, Ted Cruz has built up a commanding lead of these endorsements - especially compared with Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, which indicates a reservoir of strength that current polling might be missing.
This echoes our post from a week ago (before the caucus), in which we argued that Ted Cruz's underappreciated strength in Iowa endorsements - he led the field with more than a quarter of the sitting legislators' endorsements - could help him outperform the polling average. And indeed, he did.
On the other hand, there are many endorsements for candidates like Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie. The message is that of a Republican party in New Hampshire deeply divided between a more moderate wing supporting Fiorina and Christie, and a more libertarian wing that now is owned by Cruz (and was for Paul, when he was running).
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Hope this is right.
Yeah, Cruz needs to finish second to show he’s in the race.
Anything less is showing he has no appeal in NH.
Good luck with it.
Cruz 2016!
Ive always thought that Cruz cant take NH. If he doesnt, it wont hurt him.
Hope this is correct!
Under appreciated
Grasping at straws again, but it makes you happy, so good for you..
His campaign claims as long as he’s in the top 4 in liberal NH it is a good finish, but they might be lowering expectations.
Yippee!
He needs 2nd place or he should drop out tomorrow.
I think you’re right, the liberal should win easily.
Cruz will be FIRST in NH. Yeah, I said it.
Well, with about 40% of voters will be Republican .. and I don’t know for sure the percentage of those who are considered conservative or evangelical .. who would possibly be his voters.
However, he did get great responses everywhere he went .. so the media is downplaying the name Cruz today .. not even mentioning him as being a part of the vote.
Hmmmm ..?? that could tend to make a lot of people mad .. mad enough to vote for Cruz just to show the press they have no clue.
Because he says he has the best ground game and feels he is the best in the race. Tonight will prove that wrong but he went from 1st down to 2nd? Not good.
Liberal New Hampshire is more Trump country.
If the 3 early towns is any indication, the article may have some validity.
from the 3 small early voting towns.
Trump 9
Cruz 9
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