Fiorina will be the surprise of the night.
Bush will get around 4%
Christie 2-5%
Carson less than 4%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 14%
The rest Trump
How many are you giving Fiorina?
By that math, Trump gets well over 50% and I just do not see that happening.
I gave my best guess for what Cruz could possibly do at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3394912/posts?page=91#91