How many are you giving Fiorina?
By that math, Trump gets well over 50% and I just do not see that happening.
I gave my best guess for what Cruz could possibly do at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3394912/posts?page=91#91
Trump - 38-45%
Cruz - 14-17%
Rubio - 11-15%
Kasich - 6-8%
Christi - 2-4%
Bush - 2-6%
Carson - 5%
Fiorina - 12-15%
Gilmore - 1%
Trump does well when bad things are happening. Nothing to bad of late, reported.