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Deace: New Hampshire Primary Predictions
Conservative Review ^ | 2/9/2016 | Steve Deace

Posted on 02/09/2016 7:23:12 AM PST by JediJones

After nailing my Iowa Caucus predictions last week, the mucky mucks here at Conservative Review have asked me to see if I can do it again...

1. Donald Trump - 25%

Trump has been leading the polls in the granite state for months. While I believe he will underperform his public polling dominance once more, the lack of a coalesced rival - like Trump faced in Iowa with Cruz - gives him the edge in a crowded field. Not to mention that if a progressive nationalist like Trump can't win the least religious state in the country, then I'm not sure where he can win.

2. John Kasich - 18%

The liberal Ohio governor has pinned all of his hopes on New Hampshire, so his well-received debate performance the other night couldn't have come at a better time....

Remember, this is a state that has twice voted for John McCain in its primary, and Kasich is cut from the same cloth.

3. Ted Cruz - 17%

Less than 15% of the state's GOP base identifies as evangelical and/or born-again Christian, and it's a state that's sadly grown increasingly hostile to movement conservatives in recent years as well. Yet being the only one of those in a crowded race of progressives/moderates could actually benefit Cruz, because he's the only one really going for the conservative vote.

4. (tie) Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio - 15%

...this would be a devastating finish for Rubio and a shot in the arm for Bush...it might put the Rubio campaign into existential crisis-mode just a week after his third place finish in Iowa was blown way out of proportion.

One more thing to keep in mind - the Republicans have never nominated a candidate that didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cruz; newhampshire; primary; trump
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To: 1Old Pro
If Cruz doesn’t come in 2nd with at least 17%, does he lose, is it over for him?

Baloney.........I have said since the beginning that Cruz will do no better than 3rd in RINO-CENTRIC New Hampshire. Let's wait until SC to really compare these two.

If anything, if Trump wins by single digits to anyone tonight, it will be a huge indication that he is trending downward. If I was you i would be watching that number more closely than Cruzes

41 posted on 02/09/2016 9:19:34 AM PST by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my brave ancestors who fought w/ valor)
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To: 1Old Pro
If Cruz doesn't come in 2nd with at least 17%, does he lose, is it over for him?

If Cruz comes in 2nd or 3rd in NH, that is a huge win for him. That state votes for moderates and RINOs, which is why Trump and Kasich are doing so well. No one expect Cruz to do well there, so it will be hard for him to underperform expectations unless he comes in close to the bottom. I think if he gets more than 10% and gets some delegates out of NH, he will be happy and ready to move on to SC which will be much more friendly territory.

Cruz has a lot of money and is already well organized in all of the states through March 15 and beyond. So even if Cruz did worse than he expects in NH, he is not dropping out any time soon.

42 posted on 02/09/2016 9:23:07 AM PST by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: 1Old Pro

According to Deace 17% Cruz is third place. NH is an wide open primary. NH will go Sanders in Nov.


43 posted on 02/09/2016 9:24:07 AM PST by Theophilus (The GOPe are dealers. The Marxist Democrats are duelists.)
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To: usafa92

All Presidents are ministers of God for blessing or curses. We Cruz supporters choose the blessing.


44 posted on 02/09/2016 9:26:20 AM PST by Theophilus (The GOPe are dealers. The Marxist Democrats are duelists.)
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To: Theophilus

Good for u. Unfortunately you can’t win elections denigrating everyone else. Many Trump supporters believe that oftentimes God uses imperfect messengers to accomplish His will. Perhaps Trump is that instrument. But as you look down on everyone that dorsnt meet your standards, at least you have comfort in your beliefs as the country burns to hell.


45 posted on 02/09/2016 9:31:09 AM PST by usafa92 (Conservative in Jersey)
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To: dfwgator
At this stage in the nominating process, nothing would surprise me. Interesting times we live in (the old Chinese curse).
46 posted on 02/09/2016 9:31:27 AM PST by buckalfa (I am feeling much better now.)
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To: usafa92
Because we all know we are electing a pastor in chief for the country. Cannot stand people who throw their view of morality and religion in everyone's face.

Somebody better get the word to Reverend Trump.


47 posted on 02/09/2016 10:00:55 AM PST by Fundamentally Fair (Pictionary at the Rorschach's tonight!)
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To: Boogieman

+1


48 posted on 02/09/2016 10:00:55 AM PST by Fundamentally Fair (Is that just what you have written on your "What Trump Means to Me" chalkboard?)
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To: usafa92
 oftentimes God uses imperfect messengers to accomplish His will. 

I agree but you don't go far enough. I believe he uses imperfect messengers/tools at all times.

I simply argue that we voters should not choose a jackhammer to drive a screw. Our fate is always in God hands no matter what we choose or do or whether we acknowledge it.

Choose the blessing brother!

49 posted on 02/09/2016 10:55:18 AM PST by Theophilus (The GOPe are dealers. The Marxist Democrats are duelists.)
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To: usafa92

Ante Silver was gloriously wrong on Iowa. Why should anyone believe him on New Hampshire?


50 posted on 02/09/2016 11:48:08 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: jennychase; All; onyx

” Beware the NH Polls of February “ (BIGGG MISSES -see Post #2)

Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting vote fraud investigation org, said that ONE PERSON enters ALL the votes into some program there in NH, for the final vote tally.

No one is allowed to see or watch.

Someone once saw some papers after an election and there were all sorts of scratches writings cross outs mess. ??????????!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
www.CoasttoCoastAM.com
Date: Thursday - February 4, 2016 Host: George Noory , Guests: Bill Friedman, Bev Harris

[ bit from the show summary :

Looking toward the primary in New Hampshire, the state’s voting process is less transparent than Iowa, with final results tabulated by a single person onto an Excel spreadsheet that no one is allowed to watch, Harris revealed.


51 posted on 02/09/2016 12:14:04 PM PST by PraiseTheLord (have you seen the fema camps, shackle box cars, thousands of guillotines, stacks of coffins ~)
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To: PraiseTheLord; campaignPete R-CT; who knows what evil?; Kenny; jennychase; JediJones

That’s right, and that arcane, one person entry system remains in place today.


52 posted on 02/09/2016 12:50:06 PM PST by onyx (IF YOU'RE POSTING HERE, HOPE YOU'RE A DONOR! FReepLoaders are RUDE.)
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To: onyx

Mark Twain was right.


53 posted on 02/09/2016 1:29:01 PM PST by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
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To: Theophilus

So Trump did better than predicted and Cruz, Bush and Rubio did worse. But Fox is now saying Cruz pulled into 3rd place, so the order of this prediction might hold, other than Rubio not tying for 4th, but getting a clear 5th place.


54 posted on 02/09/2016 5:43:11 PM PST by JediJones (Marco Rubio: When the Establishment Says Jump, He Asks How High?)
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To: JediJones

Last night Deace said he hopes Bush does better than Cruz (if Cruz cant come in 1st) in NH. Bush and his money will deplete Trump and Rubio in future states.


55 posted on 02/09/2016 5:50:34 PM PST by Theophilus (The GOPe are dealers. The Marxist Democrats are duelists.)
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To: usafa92
Nate Silver gets it wrong again. Overrated Marco Rubio and underrated Cruz again, and got the order wrong to boot.
56 posted on 02/09/2016 7:00:51 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: JediJones

bump


57 posted on 02/10/2016 4:40:04 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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