Posted on 02/09/2016 7:23:12 AM PST by JediJones
After nailing my Iowa Caucus predictions last week, the mucky mucks here at Conservative Review have asked me to see if I can do it again...
1. Donald Trump - 25%
Trump has been leading the polls in the granite state for months. While I believe he will underperform his public polling dominance once more, the lack of a coalesced rival - like Trump faced in Iowa with Cruz - gives him the edge in a crowded field. Not to mention that if a progressive nationalist like Trump can't win the least religious state in the country, then I'm not sure where he can win.
2. John Kasich - 18%
The liberal Ohio governor has pinned all of his hopes on New Hampshire, so his well-received debate performance the other night couldn't have come at a better time....
Remember, this is a state that has twice voted for John McCain in its primary, and Kasich is cut from the same cloth.
3. Ted Cruz - 17%
Less than 15% of the state's GOP base identifies as evangelical and/or born-again Christian, and it's a state that's sadly grown increasingly hostile to movement conservatives in recent years as well. Yet being the only one of those in a crowded race of progressives/moderates could actually benefit Cruz, because he's the only one really going for the conservative vote.
4. (tie) Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio - 15%
...this would be a devastating finish for Rubio and a shot in the arm for Bush...it might put the Rubio campaign into existential crisis-mode just a week after his third place finish in Iowa was blown way out of proportion.
One more thing to keep in mind - the Republicans have never nominated a candidate that didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...
Deace took a lot of crap from the Here’s Donnie crowd with his Iowa predictions. Of course he was right but what the hell.
CR, Redstate, The Blaze, etc., are dead to me. Too many other choices out there to support the RINO pretenders.
Oh good. I was waiting for Steve Deauche to weigh in.
I think this prediction is very spot on.
If Cruz doesn’t come in 2nd with at least 17%, does he lose, is it over for him?
rest of field is 19%, not 10%.
that includes Christie at 9%.
but he has the order correct.
Deace is a snarky a$$ with his progressive nationalist and religious comments. Because we all know we are electing a pastor in chief for the country. Cannot stand people who throw their view of morality and religion in everyone’s face.
NH is only determinative for the governors in the field. They have to show something or their donations will dry up.
Conservatives are fleeing the state in wholesale numbers...my wife and I just left. With 20,000 more Free State potheads supposedly on their way; it is only going to get worse.
No.
I’ve listened to Deace radio show frequently over the last year. He’s smarter than ANYONE I’ve ever heard about elections and the modern, younger conservative movement. Better than Rush, Levin, Hannity, etc.
Here’s the actual Iowa results and then his Iowa prediction. The only ones he was somewhat far off on where Rubio, about 4 higher than he predicted, and Rand, about 3.5 lower. No wonder Rand dropped out.
Actual:
180,000+ turnout
Ted Cruz (27.7%)
Donald Trump (24.3%)
Marco Rubio (23.1%)
Ben Carson (9.3%)
Rand Paul (4.5%)
Jeb Bush (2.8%)
Carly Fiorina (1.9%)
others (7.3%)
Steve Deace’s Prediction:
Turnout: 145,000 (roughly 20% turnout increase—I’ll split the difference with what I see and what the polls say)
Ted Cruz – 28%
Donald Trump – 23%
Marco Rubio – 19%
Rand Paul – 8%
Ben Carson – 7%
(tie) Jeb Bush – 4%
Chris Christie – 4%
Mike Huckabee – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
(tie) John Kasich – 1%
Rick Santorum – 1%
Conservatives are fleeing the state
Its goes beyond that:
Conservatives are fleeing the North East
No pollster gets it right every time, too many variables. We’ll see, this guy might be the real oracle, who knows.
My prediction:
Trump 28%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 18%
Rubio 15%
Bush 9%
The undecided may go Trump, the not so smart will go Kasich.
And Sanders will stomp Shrillary.
‘The only one really going for the Conservative vote’
This should concern DT/MR supporters but it won’t. I’ll be happy with a ten pt spread between Trump and Cruz.
There is no such thing as a candidate without values. Whatever their values are defines who they are, how they live their lives and how they will govern. You think it makes no difference whether a candidate is a Christian, a Muslim, an atheist, a communist, a nationalist, a socialist, a progressive, a conservative, etc.? Nothing matters more than a candidate’s world view and values. Not their accent, their net worth or their hair. I will always elect someone who shares my values.
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