If Cruz doesn’t come in 2nd with at least 17%, does he lose, is it over for him?
NH is only determinative for the governors in the field. They have to show something or their donations will dry up.
No.
If Cruz comes in at least 5th in NH, his campaign will live to see another day. His campaign (or PACS) are super active in South Carolina, a state where Trump has to be stopped or his momentum (assuming he wins NH) likely will carry him to the nomination. I support Cruz as a matter of disclosure.
Coming in 2nd would be almost as good as winning for Cruz. NH is th Coming in third would be right on par and he lives to fight another day. Coming in fourth would sting, but he could pick up the pieces and move on without much trouble. Coming in fifth would be embarrassing and raise the stakes of South Carolina so that he would almost need a win or very close second to stay credible as a candidate. Coming in 6th would put him back to square one and almost cancel out his Iowa win.
Nah, nobody expects Cruz to do well in NH. South Carolina is where Cruz really needs to perform.
Baloney.........I have said since the beginning that Cruz will do no better than 3rd in RINO-CENTRIC New Hampshire. Let's wait until SC to really compare these two.
If anything, if Trump wins by single digits to anyone tonight, it will be a huge indication that he is trending downward. If I was you i would be watching that number more closely than Cruzes
If Cruz comes in 2nd or 3rd in NH, that is a huge win for him. That state votes for moderates and RINOs, which is why Trump and Kasich are doing so well. No one expect Cruz to do well there, so it will be hard for him to underperform expectations unless he comes in close to the bottom. I think if he gets more than 10% and gets some delegates out of NH, he will be happy and ready to move on to SC which will be much more friendly territory.
Cruz has a lot of money and is already well organized in all of the states through March 15 and beyond. So even if Cruz did worse than he expects in NH, he is not dropping out any time soon.
According to Deace 17% Cruz is third place. NH is an wide open primary. NH will go Sanders in Nov.