Posted on 02/07/2016 6:32:29 PM PST by Nachum
The reason Russia is possibly building a new airbase on the Turkish border inside Syria became clearer today as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted Turkey could enter the war on the side of the anti-Assad forces who Russia has been primarily targeting. The Syrian government made major gains against the Sunni opposition in recent weeks as the Syrian city of Aleppo looked to fall from the oppositionâs control. Turkey has repeatedly urged the American-led coalition against ISIS to do more to help the anti-Assad forces. âWe donât want to fall into the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq,â Mr. Erdogan said,
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
...”Turkey = ISIS”....
Take strong notice of Aleppo (”Dabiq”)..... where fierce fighting is happening now in Syria...Isis and Islamic fighters along with it’s leadership believe this area is where the greatest battle between the Muslims and the West (Crusaders) will take place.....According to Islamic Apocalyptic writings the great war against the Infidel is to take place in this location they are now fighting and why so many Syrians are leaving Syria.....this is why you will hear them mention....”Dabiq”. Which is very near Aleppo and why it’s strategic for them.....
They are fighting to the death there because their belief is this fighting is the only way their messianic figure will come.... they’re anticipating the arrival of their ‘Mahdi’ , an Apolocalyptic messianic figure, which they also believe is destined to lead all Muslims to victory before the end of the world..... thereafter to be heralded by the rebirth of the caliphate whose return was
prophesied......Turkey’s Erdogan believes he’s to be the Supreme over this revived Ottoman Empire.
As one Syrian rebel leader stated.....”Dabiq is
NOT important militarily and yet the Islamic
State fought ferociously to capture the village this summer because its members believe the great battle between infidels and Muslims will take place there as part of the final drama preceding the Day of Judgment.”
They also are quite content to wait for the Russian , Nato or American armies to arrive in this fighting and initiate their countdown to the apocalypse.
...here’s a quote from one of Isis’s founders.. ‘Abu al-Zarqawi’...and also Isis leader ...’Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’ as quoted similiar phrases...
“The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat continues to intensify...by Allah’s permission until it burns the crusader armies “””””in Dabiq.””””
And another quote....
“If you think all these mujahidin came from across the world to fight Assad, you’re mistaken. They are all here as promised by the Prophet. This is the war he promisedâit
is the Grand Battle.”
If you aren’t familiar with this Nachum it would pay to read it for it tells us exactly why the Aleppo location is so strtegic to Isis and it’s fighters....they purposely are provoking International outcry by their brutality wiht anticipation Russia, US, Nato, will come against them....it is what Isis wants.....
FACT SHEET:.... THE ISLAMIC STATE’S APOCALYPTIC BELIEFS
http://sites.tyndale.com/joelrosenberg/files/2015/09/RESEARCH-ApocalypticBeliefs-ISIS.pdf
ISIS named it's magazine Dabiq, because of it's prophetic significance to them. It will be fun when the Kurds raise their flag over the town (this Spring?), and we can watch those cocky jihadis choke on their bullcrap:
We are in a world of hurt if we have to defend anything, including NATO, including our our overseas bases and personnel, and including our own territories and homeland.
Many of us Freepers have been sounding the alarm for years, to no avail.
We are screwed if a real war breaks out.
Yeah Ben, over the years Turkey and Russia have had their problems BUT
now NATO enters the discussion.
An attack on one NATO member is an attack on them all.
Rubio would go to war, tear up the ME even more, then invite all of the refugees to become citizens of the US and jump on the tax payer dole.
Maybe some of the reports of increased air traffic at Erebuni are touch-downs/refueling of aircraft en-route to Syria bases.
A side note...I was surprised Russia flew the "White Swan" on bombing flights over Syria. And the Swan flew all the way from the Kola Peninsula.
It’s a huge deal for the fighters and leaders amassing there. Syria is key to the ultimate caliphat. Erdogan knows this all to well and it is he who ushers these fighters into Syria....He’s often considered to be the greatest “friend” to Isis yet he “Plays” Nato/European leadership by leveraging the masses of refugees he controls.
Erdogan knows he doesn’t have the military capacity to bring about the calaphat.......but he can and does use the refugees to “push” not only into Europe but also to generate revenue to his coffers from Europes Nations by hosting the refugees in Turkey.
It was stunning watching Erdogan at these summits attended in Brussels and elswhere ....news reports that “a solution to the refugee problem” was the point of these summits when in fact it was all about Erdogan using his leverage to get the pay off he sought....He does control them.
If a large conflict breaks out, do not think we will be left untouched by it.
Erdogan has been massing military on the Syrian/Turkey border for a while now, giving the reason it’s there to “protect” the refugees coming out of Syria. When in fact he’s been positioning his military to , I believe, run to Damascus when it falls and declare himself the Caliphat.
Erdogan Says US Must Choose Between Turkey And Syrian Kurds to partner with, he’s been asking for American political and air support for a move into northern Syria since July of last year. This would give Erdogan international legitimacy for an intervention and that the Russians would be more wary of shooting down American jets than they would be of shooting down Turkish jets.
Erdogan is just angry that the US is supporting the Kurds......and he’s angry with Putin for “occupying” Syria. He wanted the US to go after Assads army so he could just go in for the spoils.
“An attack on one NATO member is an attack on them all.”
But an attack BY one, is not necessarily an attack by all.
NATO members do not have the authority to unilaterally commit NATO to offensive operations.
“Erdogan Says US Must Choose Between Turkey And Syrian Kurds to partner with”
It looks like the US is siding with the Syrian Kurds (but will probably strive to have it both ways). US envoy Brett McGurk was recently in Kobane (with high level British and French representatives) to meet with those YPG Kurds, and their allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Apparently, this was final coordination for a major assault by the Kurds across Turkey’s “red line” of the Euphrates River.
The US has been delivering weapons and ammo for this operation, and forces have been massing around the River crossing of the Tishreen Dam. Reportedly, a contingent of US Special operators has recently joined this assault force.
The target appears to be Manbij - the “Little London” of ISIS, which was their main location for receiving and processing foreign jihadis. In anticipation of the assault, ISIS has recently evacuated their prisoners held their back to Raqaa. Folks are speculating that this could launch Tuesday or Wednesday, with American logistic support and French air support, and possibly UK Spec ops - so much for NATO siding with Turkey. We will see if the air strikes pick up there in preparation - lately, there has been more recon than strike over Manbij.
After the Paris terrorist attacks, and the immigrant crisis, Europeans are feeling the heat to slap down ISIS. It may be that the US administration wants to clean up the political mess that it has from its support of the Syrian rebels (who have committed historic atrocities) and running guns from Benghazi, to get the issue off the table before the elections in November. I think that the mess has just become too great, and Western Governments want to wash their hands of this failed adventure.
There are also signs of US and Russian coordination on this approach. Both sides have armed the YPG Kurds who widely announce their intention to join Afrin and Kobane into their new Kurdish Rojava, and provided them air support. When Turkey started massing near the border in Eastern Syria, threatening to cut off Kurdish supply routes from Iraq, both Russia and and the US established air bases in that sector (Qamshili and Rmelian). Russians, Americans and French have all been bombing Manbij, although American and Russian priorities have been elsewhere lately (Iraq and Aleppo).
The Western (Russian) side of the operation to have the YPG Kurds close off the Turkish border has already launched - and the Kurds are making good progress expanding Eastward, now just out of sniper range from Azaz, and within range to its nearby Menagh Air Base. They are not engaging ISIS, but rather the Free Syrian Army, and a witches brew of islamist militias, including al Queda’s Nusra Front. When the Manbij assault launches, it will be entirely against ISIS, and against their strategically vital supply line to Turkey.
If Turkey can’t stop this operation in Syria, then we can expect to see increasing defections and desertions among the jihadis as the noose tightens. It is not unrealistic to anticipate Raqaa being liberated this Summer.
The Turks and Saudis might find a counter to disrupt this strategy, such as providing anti-air missiles to the jihadis, or directly invading. Foreign Military Sales agreements might prohibit them from doing so with US made weapons, without US approval, so if the US is trying to quietly clean up the mess they (Obama) covertly made, that is not likely.
Perhaps the Saudis could bribe or blackmail Obama to betray the Kurds by having them commit in force across the river, and then let a Turkish armor force cut them off and slaughter them. Even if they did, the Russians, Syrians, and maybe even the French (unlikely) might provide air support. A few attack helicopters can demolish tank units in the open.
“Putin has big plans for Erebuni.”
As part of the former Soviet Union, no doubt there are lots of old ties and habitual relationships that could be exercised between Russia and Armenia - especially against Turkey. Armenia has good reason to fear Turkey, and Russia is perhaps their best ally to deter Turkey.
If Turkey and Russia seriously get into it, Armenia has lots of Turkish speaking people and connections to exploit for intelligence purposes. Also, the border with Turkey would allow for military supplies to be smuggled to the Kurdish minority (~20% of Turkey’s population), if they chose to foment an uprising. There remains an Armenian minority in Turkey as well.
The Soviets no doubt built infrastructure in Armenia (then the Transcaucasian SFSR) to support war plans against Turkey over several decades.
Even if it is only to support Syrian air operations, supplies could be forward positioned overland for faster turnaround, and emergency airfields would be needed along the routes (without having to depend excessively on Iran).
Russia seems to be testing and exercising a lot of its top shelf gear (tanks, jets, missiles/rockets), as well as their strategic air in Syria - great training, as long as there are no combat losses. Their bench is not deep like it was in the Soviet era, the number of aircraft is much lower. Their top line strategic bombers are individually named, like our aircraft carriers.
They didn’t help us in last gulf war with that armored division. We can sit it out if Turkey and Russia come to blows. Turkey can’t have it both ways.
“Anyone know what ever happened...” (with proposed Chinese military involvement in Syria.)
The Chinese did not deploy any conventional combat power to fight in Syria. I have not seen any reports of covert Chinese involvement either.
Precursor or AC? Yes, he is worth keeping an eye on. His palace sits between the 3 seas and was built with defiance. Biggest palace in the world. He wants to be Sultan, and head the revived Turkish Ottoman Empire. Revelation 13 ie recovers from fatal wound, who would think the Ottoman empire would ever recover?
There is not much daylight left.
Excellent post and very good assessment of the situation ... I truly hope the Russians clean house over there , as we have been quite duplicitous in this situation ..
I think we want ISIS to do the dirty work of ousting Assad , so the Saudi/Turk/EU pipeline can be run through Syria .. the Sunni countries desperately want the Euro pipeline to help us undercut the Russian European energy dominance at the behest of the EU and NATO .. everyone will get a piece of the pie ..
We keep poking the Bear on many fronts , the Cold war is over and we should be making the Russians our allies ... instead we are trying to dominate them ...
Correct,
But how hard is it to show russia entering turkish airspace?
Obama’s admin. has continually demanded Assad go even when peace agreements between the rebels and Assad were being brokered favorable to both sides....many times that condition halted any hope this war would be over.
Assad said early on he expected this to last for ten years and it sure looks like that will be the case, unfortunately along with leaving his country in shambles.
It’s the cold war mentality of the old goats in Washington that create most of the problems , even our Military leaders have stated this mindset gets in the way time and again and why there is so much communication break down....they are tough old birds who still live in the past.
If you recall before Ukraine Russia was hosting most of the G-8 and G-20 Summits as well as many other venues regarding Europe and Russia working together........the cold war die hards saw that as a threat to our standing in Europe and wasn’t about to let that continue, or Russia to gain any further recognition as a super power on equal par in Europe.
As soon as McCain put his feet in Ukraine, just as he did in Egypt, Libya and other nations where conflicts ensued, you could name that tune in one note what was to come thereafter. I truly hate the man. He’s Obama’s front man and always seen sticking his nose in before these conflicts erupt...and in every case it was always about regime change. He’s one of the “point men” in Nato’s expansion and establishing the NWO nations to comply with that agenda...by choice or conflict.
Good post ... I’m in total agreement ..these warmongers must be defeated or we will end up in a conflict with Russia ... like Trump said , they are a natural ally
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