Posted on 02/04/2016 1:32:43 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump's days are numbered.
Like so: -11, 4, 21, and 45,416.
These four figures help explain why the favorite for the New Hampshire Republican primary hasn't been knocked from his perch just yet, despite the victory of Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses and the surge of Marco Rubio. An argument against Trump's frontrunner status is that Rubio has all the momentum from his strong Iowa finish, and that the real estate mogul no longer has the air of inevitability. ("He's not a machine! He's a man!")
Both of those statements might be true. But so are these: Trump's base of support is formidable and committed, as Jonathan Last notes, even if polls may have overstated its size; and his position in New Hampshire has been strong for months.
Let the numbers show you how:
45,416
Trump may have clung to a second-place finish in Iowa, but he still garnered a historically large amount of votes. He received more than Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee did when they actually won the Iowa caucuses in the last two elections. Trump, in fact, exceeded Santorum's total by more than 15,000. The GOP frontrunner didn't lack for support in volume.
On the other hand, neither did his chief rivals Cruz and Rubio, who both fared well amid record turnout--evidence that many caucus goers also turned out against Trump.
-11
The prevailing wisdom is that New Hampshire is more favorable to Rubio than Cruz, the latter of whom appealed to a culturally conservative Iowa electorate that doesn't resemble the one in New Hampshire. Even if that's the case, Cruz has emerged as a clear alternative to Trump, and he's been part of the logjam in the Granite State vying for second place in the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
It is kind of interesting when you think about it, that is, the record number of voters for the top three candidates... Nobody is really that passionate about Cruz or Rubio— The record votes for Cruz and Rubio were from people who are passionately anti-Trump-— SO, in essence it is not really a 3 person race it is Race of Trump against himself-—
Bingo!
I think Cruz has a very dedicated following. When asked if they will change their mind, Cruz and Trump both have very sure voters. Rubio is a bit softer and is turning into the “not Trump but not Cruz, either” choice.
Trump needs to have a solid win on Tuesday. He needs to break 30% easily and stay at least 8% ahead of second place. Cruz seems to be slipping into third, so he needs a solid week and a good debate. Rubio needs to hold off any serious move by one of the other establishment lane candidates. If Bush, Kasich, or Christie outperform their polling, it is at the expense of Rubio.
lol. Cruz has signed up close to 200,000 volunteers nationally, believe me there are a lot of people passionate about Ted Cruz for President.
Evangelicals rule in Iowa, so it has always been. What is amazing is that Trump did as well as he did, given the alternatives of Huck, Santo, and Cruz.
Well said. Yes Trump got alot of votes in Iowa (though its clear he is tormented by his 2nd place finish). It is also true that record voters turned out to vote against Trump but were diluted over a field of numerous other candidates. As this race winnows down to fewer and fewer candidates, the anti-Trump vote will begin coalescing around a single anti-Trump candidate. And even if the best case scenario polls for Trump are true, 60% of the republican primary voters are choosing someone other than Trump. His antics these past few days have only cemented the anti-Trump sentiments in many of these voters.
70% of Trump people are locked in. They came our for him, but so did the guy’s people. Give them all credit.
NH is different. You got those other 4 fighting it out.
I think Trump will win very very big in NH
In his concession speech to his supporters, Trump explained that his advisors had, from the start, told him to forget about Iowa (my words).
I think that alleged last-minute voter misguidance by Cruz campaign probably spoiled the Iowa poll numbers.
EXCLUSIVE–Voicemails: ‘Ben Carson Suspending Campaigning’; Cruz: ‘Accurate Report’
I don’t know where the data comes from that you reference, but I’ll go ahead and stipulate that 70% of Trump’s people are locked in. Trump is getting somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% of the republican primary electorate (though he did not come anywhere near that in Iowa voting results). 70% of 30% of the voting population is 21% of the voting population. Does Trump having a lock on 21% of republican primary voters make you comfortable believing he has the nomination locked up?
There was passion for Cruz long before the Lump decided to run.
There was passion for Cruz when he stood up to the establishment and took out Dewhurst.
There was passion for Cruz when he stood up to McConnell and called him a liar on the floor of the Senate.
There was passion for Cruz when he tried to rally conservatives to oppose funding ObamaCare, against the wishes of the GOPE.
There was passion for Cruz when he walked out of a middle-eastern “Christian” convention when they refused to stand with Israel.
Cruz was a meme when he refused to stand up for Obama at the State of the Union. “Be This Guy”...
The Lump is an imitator, pretending to be a Republican. He is unprincipled and malleable. He wants to give the Democrats everything they ask for, because he is one of them.
Cruz is the real thing.
Trump is Hillary.
Nice ,,setting the artificial goalposts early.
Gee, why is that?
Lots of us who were passionate for Cruz early on now are not. I see that is not in your mix.
Are you the poster who advocates for repealing the 19th Amendment?
I look at it like this.
Trump either wins New Hampshire, or he can pack it in.
Winning so much that you get tired of winning doesn’t include losing.
Simple as that.
Those who are still conservatives will still be passionate about Ted Cruz, he hasn’t changed.
Others now support a liberal Democrat intent on destroying any prospect of a Republican victory in November.
On here and on conservative radio, people were passionate for Cruz after all those times, but it mysteriously never seemed to translate to the general public until about a month ago...
I’ve been saying it for months. Trump needs to win either Iowa or New Hampshire and he will be set going on as one of the final two or three. Cruz had to come into the top two in Iowa and in the top four in New Hampshire to continue.
Didn’t know who would get the third ticket out of Iowa, but whoever it was needed to finish top four in New Hampshire to have a strong chance in South Carolina. Looks like Rubio will do that solidly.
Just the dynamics of the race this year.
Answers to Todays Trivia
1. What was the incident sited in the book Incident at Exeter, by journalist John G. Fuller? 20 pts THE BOOK CHRONICLES A UFO SIGHTING BY TWO POLICE OFFICERS AND A YOUNG MAN.
2. What political party was formed in Exeter, NH on October 12, 1853? 5 pts THE REPUBLICAN PARTY STARTED IN EXETER.
3. Who was Oney “Ona” Judge (b.1773 died February 25, 1848) of Portsmouth, NH? 10 pts C. MARTH WASHINGTON’S PERSONAL SLAVE WHO RAN AWAY. AFTER GEORGE WASHINGTON’S DEATH 124 OF HIS SLAVES WERE GIVEN THEIR FREEDOM. ONEY JUDGE WAS NOT ONE OF THEM, AND IN FACT A BOUNTY WAS PLACED ON HER RETURN, (SEE BELOW).
a. First negro ball player
b. First negro to play piano at Carnegie Hall
c. George Washington’s Runaway Slave
d. First US Senator from Portsmouth
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