Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
Only a Cruz fan could be so out of it to equate the two in any way. I was alive and you can bet I recall the military on alert over the decision by JFK.
Yes it is.
I assure you I was around. Trump supported Castro or do you to have trouble writing English?
Trump fits perfect, better than the original.
I guess this is some old campaign trick I wasn’t aware of. Very nice. Thanks for posting it to me.
Well, Cruz was born in Canada. Trump is not making that up. If he gets the nom., Democrats will use it against him. Cruz has troubling filing with the FEC and when caught blames subordinates. Dems will make much of that also.
The low interest loan I’m not sure about. Sorry.
Well I would say that the fact Trump has not engaged in campaign fraud to the point of getting a written reprimand from the Iowa Sec of State says much about his character.
Wah! Trump is whining.
Except he didn’t quit.
The way he said it sounded like it.. Man his campaign is in disarray.. Staff quitting and his campaign manager just before caucus night.. I’ve been to a caucus it’s a group of people all discussing their candidates and trying to persuade each other to switch sides.. Cruz didn’t steal any votes nor did he cheat anybody out of nothing.. Why would he leave oh I don’t know? He later said after CNN caused this that he was going to Florida not going to NH and South Carolina then a prayer breakfast. He also said he was going to Florida for Clean Cloths??? You don’t leave the State you have a important vote coming out.. He only had to wait a few hours before leaving for Florida.. You better be concise with your message to the media or they will mess it up for you.. Just like CNN Did.. I heard on Fox the He was suspending his campaign to fly to Florida for R/R Then later after the Caucus started they changed it to He was flying to Florida for fresh cloths...
Cruz apologized to Carson for cheating. This tainted the IA primary election results. Trump is justifiably angry as a leading candidate should be. So Cruz is not above sleazy politics. Cruz also lied to Ioawans by telling them that Trump favored Obamacare which he is against. So Cruz claims to be a strong Christian but lies. The lesson for Trump and his organization is that Cruz will lie and cheat to win and he has to be watched very closely going forward.
Scary. Next he’ll be on Double Secret Probation.
Sorry, you’re spinning. It was the duty of Cruz/Rubio to call the campaign. They didn’t; it was a dirty trick. I’m not changing my mind about this until presented by evidence from the Cruz/Carson campaign (or media I trust) that they were not using ugly tactics. So no use trying to convince me.
Wah!
I think your starting to get it. Your wahs are getting fewer. We have to watch Cruz’s tactics going forward. Let’s keep the process fair so that we can be proud and supportive of the eventual nominee.
I'm having no trouble at all with the meaning of the word notion. It's you who used the word in an entirely inappropriate manner in what was, as I said, the dumbest statement I've ever read on FR. It's also the most unsupported and unsupportable statement:
The notion that even one voter changed their vote because of this is ridiculous.
As I said before, there were 1,681 venue sites during the Iowa caucuses. So, you claim that based on your "notion", that "not even one vote" was changed in any of the 1,681 caucus venues. Utter nonsense to even make such a statement.
One can have a "notion" that the Cruz fraud had no impact on the overall result. But a "notion" that the fraud did not change one single vote in any of the 1,681 venues is not a notion, but the babbling of Cruz supporter who refuses to deal with the reality of what happened.
But you seem to have a real knack for this "notion" business. I suggest you go into the Psychic Hotline business. You have a talent. Heck, maybe you can even pick lottery winners based on your notions if you can divine what did and and didn't happen at 1,681 caucus venues. The notion that even one voter changed their vote because of this is ridiculous.
Sorry it was just a Trumper tantrum after his huge loss in IOWA!!!! The Party sets the rules of a caucus.. Ben campaign was in decline and he told the media the wrong thing at the wrong time.. Sorry Trump gets no cigar and he might lose NH by next week!!!
Huge loss? Are you delusional or just stupid? Jeb and Christie were a huge loss. Santorum and Huckabee were a huge loss. Trump, coming in second, with 5 or 6 thousand less than Cruz was an amazing achievement. And I thought I was bad at math.
Trump loss huge in Iowa.. He lost by over 6000 votes!!!
So what? He came in second and he has one less delegate than Cruz. You people, who constantly accuse others of a cult of personality, are absolutely in LOVE with the slimy, sleazy Cruz.
So what?
second!!! The Donald can’t handle that that is why he starts slamming people and throwing out falsehoods!! Then he has twitter tantrums!!! This is really bothering him.. if he had his hand on the button he’d probably nuke Iowa!!!
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