Posted on 02/03/2016 2:29:45 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
On Wednesday morning, two days after losing the Iowa Republican caucus to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, Donald Trump accused the Texas senator of stealing the election. According to Trump, Cruz’s campaign committed “fraud” by sending direct mail pieces to lapsed Republican voters and by spreading public reports that pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson might be dropping out of the race.
On the night of the Iowa caucuses, Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of spreading false rumors about his campaign suspending its bid for the GOP nomination. Cruz’s people had been pushing a report that originated with CNN, which reported that Carson was planning on going home to Florida after the caucus instead of traveling to New Hampshire or South Carolina.
With his poor showing and diminishing numbers, it was not outlandish to deduce from this that Carson was toying with the idea of dropping out. Turns out he wasn't. It turns out Carson only planned to briefly return home so he could grab some "fresh clothes." Part of the incident can be chalked up to the ambiguous comments coming from Carson's amateurish campaign and the other part to Cruz’s campaign doing what campaigns tend to do: push narratives and stories that help them win elections.
But unless new evidence emerges, Trump's accusations of fraud and illegality are as absurd as his calls for a new election. Moreover, even if we believed Trump's charges, under no scenario does he win Iowa.
Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
Let’s say deception was afoot. Where is the evidence that the CNN story or the Cruz tactic changed the dynamics of the race at all? Carson's RealClearPolitics polling average was 7.7 percent-with some of the better polling putting him at 9 percent. One poll even had him at 10 percent. He finished the night with 9.3 percent of the vote. This seems right, and probably a little better than expected. Carson's numbers had taken a nosedive since peaking on Nov. 1st, and there was no evidence that a Carson surge was underway. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Even if we concede, for the sake of discussion, that Carson lost two or even three thousands voters to the rumor (which is pushing it), nothing changes. Even if Carson finished at 10 percent or 12 percent, the political outcome is the same. To believe Trump was cheated out of the race, you have to accept that Carson lost more than six thousand supporters, and all of them went to Cruz. Well, Carson pulled in a little over 17,300 votes.
In truth, it’s far more likely that any Carson defecting voters would have dispersed somewhat evenly among the other major candidates. Let's go big, though, and say Carson lost 15,000 supporters. According to a not-very-scientific NBC poll in early January, Cruz and Trump were tied as the second choice of Carson supports, at 26 percent each. Trump would have been in the same place. In a more scientific and more recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Trump was tied with Marco Rubio as second choice. Trump's favorability tracked way below that of every other candidate except Chris Christie. Considering the Rubio surge, it's far more plausible that Carson's lost votes would have gone to Rubio and pushed Trump into third place.
Now, I realize nothing is going to change the minds of Trump and his fans. Believing they were cheated out of Iowa is almost a philosophical necessity. The story helps Trump continue to latch onto to polls as unvarnished Truth and dismiss the idea that he has ever really lost at anything. But even if we believe Cruz cheated, none of the outcomes lead to a Trump victory.
I would say Trump does know how to personally accept defeat as he has likely had to do countless times throughout his business career (though I agree it is probably very hard for him), but what he can’t deal with is allowing anyone else to perceive he has been defeated. The latter goes to his image, his brand as he would put it.
This is how a bankruptcy, for example, becomes a victory. He knows he’s lost, but he attempts to project that loss as a victory to everyone else.
This is why, in his mind, 2nd place in Iowa was so deadly. The narrative was spreading that Cruz had simply out campaigned him (which he did). If that became the story, there is no excuse for Trump and he can’t spin 2nd place as some moral victory that was unexpected.
That is great news about Ted Cruz being your first choice!
And I totally agree with you re: Trump...and then some.
Okay, thanks. I read it and thought it warranted some consideration. I personally think that Iowa caucuses are not a very good system. Secret ballots are more reliable as no one knows who you are voting for and so cannot be arm twisted to change.
Do you think Trump has built his bigger, better, stronger GOTV/ground game yet in NH? The press is reporting he’s got precinct captains that don’t even have voter contact lists yet, as of today - just like he did last week in Iowa.
Cruz did not cheat anyone.. You don’t announce your going home in the middle of a Caucus vote unless your quitting or a little slow. Now I like Ben Carson but he has done some rather strange things during his campaign.. You don’t quit campaigning to go on a book tour...
If Trump won, would we be having this conversation?
I’m glad someone else thinks so too. It is starting to feel like he is greasing the skids for a quick exit.
lol
sorry I don’t believe Carson lost a single vote because of this.
He outperformed his polls by 2 points and even if he did lose votes to this, who knows who they went too, maybe Trump got them! and would have placed 3rd if not for the crossover tricked/stupid Carson voters.
Except he didn’t quit. You guys keep ignoring that little fact. Easily disprovable if a non-sleazy candidate picks up the phone and calls his fellow candidate. I notice Trump and all the other candidates (aside from Rubio) didn’t run around proclaiming Carson left the election. And why would he leave? Common sense would say he’d stay in at least past the caucus. From his point of view, it makes no sense.
I agree.
The caucuses were held, and everyone played along.
I would hope they notice some problems and make adjustments for 2020.
The point is, you or I don’t know. You are assuming just as I am. Which is why you don’t cheat. So that everyone in the nation knows exactly where all the votes went. Thanks to Cruz, he’s created a nice mess for himself and others.
Trump wants all opposition of any kind to stop right now without going any further. Whining is so presidential.
What I might do is not the issue and it is not kind to call voter stupid fools when they are lied to by officials- which official you are not!
He did not cheat. Other campaigns watched the same CNN report, came to the same conclusion, and followed the exact same course of action.
You obviously did poorly in pre-law and pre-common sense. There is no precise definition of voter fraud.
The absence of a clear legal definition of election fraud contributes to this inconsistent evaluation.21 Federal legislation and government agencies offer “laundry list†definitions based on examples of acts of deception in theelectoral process;22 these are nonexhaustive†lists that exemplify the large scope of the definition.23 These descriptive definitions capture both fraudulent acts that are directed at and committed by voters, as well as those directed at and committed by other entities, such as campaigns and government officials.24
Voter Fraud or Voter Defrauded?
Youre defending a form of voter fraud. Since this is a peculiar circumstance that could only happen within a caucus system, there probably isn’t any specific law that addresses it. But it was still a form of voter fraud.
My statement above is correct. There are numerous forms of voter fraud and a situation where a voter is told in a caucus situation that their candidate has withdrawn would be comparable to a candidate being illegally removed from a voting machine ballot.
Or maybe you want to provide your precise, indisputable definition of voter fraud.
Americans are very trusting people, which is good and bad and unfortunately there are those who would exploit that. So yes, some would do it. In the hubbub, not everyone thinks rationally until after the fact. Sad, but true.
And unfortunately, whether there were nefarious intentions or not, this looks really bad and combined with other unfortunate situations, I don’t see how Ted’s image of trustworthiness is not damaged, and possibly irreparably damaged.
Trump wants a clean nomination process with no cheating. I see justified anger not whining.
Then people got inside and heard the Cruz disinformation/slash/dirty trick that Carson was dropping out, don't waste your vote, etc.
So about ~25% of people who were going to vote for Carson switched to Cruz. And that was the margin of difference and the reason why the polls were wrong about Trump winning.
Can you point me to a single report of even a single Carson voter switching to Cruz? If ~25% of people who were going to vote for Carson defected, then why did Carson's caucus totals outperform his pre-caucus poll numbers and match his entrance poll numbers?
Or is this math you do as a Trump supporter to make yourself feel better?
This was an attempt to move votes from one candidate to another. A candidate couldn't survive that if it succeeded in a close race. But this particular thing could only happen in a caucus situation unless someone tried to remove a candidate from a machine or paper ballot, and that would be easily and quickly detected.
I think this should be investigated to determine what happened and in how many caucus venues. No idea if it will be investigated. I heard a couple of people call in to talk shows to say it happened at their venue. But it needs investigation.
It's not Team Cruz's responsibility to fact check CNN.
Team Cruz's simply passed along a CNN report and they framed it as such.
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