And those who are rabid Trump supporters wonder why they are sometimes criticized for their lack of grasp of politics.
Iowa did two very important things in this race. It destroyed two “truths” at one time.
First, it harmed Trump’s subconscious message that he was a winner. Winners win, as it has been said, and he encouraged that motto. It makes sense, an air of inevitability is the most powerful force in an election. Bush had it before Trump jumped in the game. Clinton had it before the caucus last night on the Democrats side. And Trump cultivated it in October/November last year. Last night slowed his victory train down, and now he can’t portray the image of an unstoppable force.
Second, it destroyed the theme that Cruz couldn’t win. That has been a constant refrain from his detractor. “Yes, he says all the right things, but what has he done? He hasn’t had any victories! He can’t beat Clinton in the general election.” That would have picked up steam if Trump had won Iowa. Cruz put that theme to rest last night.
I’ve heard, right here on this thread, that all of Cruz’s work only got him one more delegate. (For example, in the comment I am replying to.) But Cruz hasn’t just been preparing the ground game in Iowa. He had two bus tours of the south this summer. He had been building a ground game in all of the Super Tuesday states. He has almost twice as much money on hand as Rubio, and has been building his ground game for months and months, which means he is well prepared to fight beyond South Carolina. No candidate, other that Trump, is similarly situated. His win in Iowa last night means that Cruz will be one of the last two or three standing. That puts him in a very good position.
Let me help you with your your own apparent lack of political grasp.
Cruz didn't "win" Iowa. This isn't the electoral college. If Trump came up with no delegates, then you could say Cruz "beat" him. But saying that because you scored one more point in the first quarter of the first game of the season, well, go ahead and celebrate "winning" the first quarter.
The only reason this circus is front and center is because it gives people like Chrissie Matthews "butterflies in his stomach".
Political realists know that Iowa isn't any sort of reliable bellwether for Republicans. Just ask Huckabee and Santorum.
His win in Iowa last night means that Cruz will be one of the last two or three standing. That puts him in a very good position.
I think he will be in the top 3, but Trump still dominates nationally and is still the most likely.
And I'm not a Trump supporter, just stating reality. If Trump wins New Hampshire by 20 and South Carolina by 15, no one will be talking about Iowa, other than it being a strange hiccup in the Republican Primary. Those two states have actual primaries, not media-driven novelty acts like the caucuses.
Second, it destroyed the theme that Cruz couldn’t win. That has been a constant refrain from his detractor. “Yes, he says all the right things, but what has he done? He hasn’t had any victories! He can’t beat Clinton in the general election.†That would have picked up steam if Trump had won Iowa. Cruz put that theme to rest last night.
Nobody said Cruz couldn’t win Iowa. After Santorum and Huckabee? That’s a laughable suggestion.
Lack of grasp of Politics?
I stated from the outset that Trump winning Iowa would be a huge upset, and that I did not expect him to win there.
Iowa traditionally picks the most evangelical candidate, and that’s what they did yesterday... And Rubio pulled himself out of a funk by pretending he was the second coming for the past few weeks, and got enough of IA voters to believe it.
The Caucus format by definition supports the traditional/establishment candidates over the outside candidates.
The question is can Cruz turn IA into anything by the time NH votes in a week? I don’t think so, but time will tell. Rubio was the big winner last night, clearly he can now get the establishment money and machine to fully gather around him... Can he drastically change the calculus by NH? Don’t know....
I don’t think anything drastically changed last night, I still say Trump runs the rest of the table, now that the rest of the votes are traditional secret ballot box situations. But its politics so who knows... I don’t see Cruz’s win as a drastic shift... Rubio however clearly has the claim, I am the establishment candidate, the rest of you guys need to bow out and endorce me.