Posted on 02/02/2016 5:31:18 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Donald Trump's supporters showed up at the Sheraton Monday night fully expecting their man to win the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn't they? Trump had held a lead of varying sizes in 13 of the last 13 polls listed in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls. How could that not win?
"Beats the hell out of me," said Michelle Tepley, a Trump fan from Waukee. "It doesn't make any sense."
"Sad," said Kimberly Hawn of West Des Moines.
"I don't know, I don't know," said Steve Brewer of Norwalk.
Months ago, before Trump took the lead in Iowa, a number of analysts argued that he wasn't a "good fit" for the state's Republican electorate, made up heavily of voters who describe themselves as born-again evangelical Christians. Then Trump took the lead and -- in the polls at least -- fought off challenges from Ben Carson and eventual winner Ted Cruz. So analysts thought Trump might not be so bad a fit after all.
But on caucus night, some of Trump's supporters returned to the old "bad fit" theory to explain Trump's surprise loss.
"It was the evangelicals," said Dick Stoffer of West Des Moines. "They've done it before -- they did it four years before with Santorum, they did it with Huckabee before that."
"The evangelicals," said Carol Anne Tracy of West Des Moines. "We've got a lot of evangelicals, and I just don't think they felt that [Trump] praised God enough."
"It's happened before -- the guy with the biggest Bible wins Iowa," said Ken Crow, a Tea Party activist from Winterset.
The caucus results -- Trump soundly beaten by Cruz, finishing barely ahead of Marco Rubio -- seemed to confirm another nagging suspicion about the Trump campaign: that it had not paid sufficient attention to turning out its voters.
Most of the people at the Trump event had attended caucuses earlier in the evening. At those caucuses, the presiding officer asked whether there was a representative from each campaign present to speak, and, if not, whether anyone attending would like to speak on a particular candidate's behalf. At the caucus I attended, in Pleasant Hill, a suburb just east of Des Moines, there was no one to speak for Trump -- no representative of the campaign -- and no voter willing to stand up and speak on his behalf. (The precinct ended in a Cruz landslide: 110 votes for the Texas senator, versus 36 for Trump and 34 for Rubio.)
At the Sheraton, some Trump supporters had similar stories.
"We were at a caucus and Trump didn't even have anyone there to speak for him," one man told me.
"That's insane," added a man nearby.
I think Iowa is a useful and fun event. Sort of a competitive “stretch and warm up” activity before the race starts.
Maybe during debates Trump will think twice about bragging about polls.. or not.
http://atr.rollcall.com/what-we-learned-from-the-iowa-caucuses/?dcz=
[snip]
....Damage to the brand: “There is now blood in the water for Donald Trump. He underperformed because of his attempt to sell Iowa voters wholesale with large media events with big crowds without really getting to know them on more of a personal level.”
“Ted Cruz proved he could successfully beat back Trump attacks because he had a great ground game and identified well with evangelical voters. The fact that Trump skipped the Iowa debate gave Marco Rubio an outstanding chance to break through to voters with a positive message and bring more voters to his camp. Trump must now hope that he can still maintain his lead in New Hampshire and hope that his brand of being a winner doesn’t whither away.”
[snip]
How about splitting the “anti-establishment†voters to pave the way for marco?
There should be little disagreement if I put it that way.
I called it here.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3390833/posts?page=138#138
“I would not be surprised if Cruz wins or gets much closer than expected. The MSM would love for Trump to be disappointed in Iowa.â€
It has happened more than once.
Van de Lay, all the way!
This is my concern as well. TGO (Mark Levine) has discussed this.
Keep up the great work!
It was said on TV that Cruz had 12,000 workers for his GOTV in Iowa. He stole a march on Trump with that - I assume this article is correct. He’ll never be able to duplicate that advantage again. Worse, Trump lost votes to Rubio, not something I saw coming at all. Now that Rubio is going to have more money than he can spend and a more favorable press than anyone else, the whole ball of wax is the next 18 days. Is South Carolina going to kill Trump or Cruz or Rubio? Let’s have some focus on economic issues and see....
The polls mean nothing. - Some where even saying the Trump would win by 10 points or more
The betting markets mean nothing. - They broke heavily for Trump yesterday
The stadium crowds mean nothing - Ted Cruz won by having a good ground game not a made for TV spectacle.
Cruz and Rubio split the conservative vote.
Trump voters describe themselves as moderates in entrance and exit polls.
So, so tired of the "Trump is a conservative" lie.
He is a populist.
I agree with that!
Iowa means nothing. Cruz leaves after a years time with one whole delegate more. After spending millions and having to ship in people from Texas.
And all he got was one delegate more than Trump and Rubio.
So get your jollies out today, and realize that you cant camp out in the next 10 states for a year each and play to evangelicals in order to win a goofy voting process (they aren’t using it) that should have gone the way of black and white TV.
I think the analysis in the article is correct. And as for the future we will just see.
All three have pluses and minuses if they are the nominee.
Cruz had to pull out all the stops to win Iowa, but I think a victory speech that was 80% religious will not play elsewhere.
Trump has his high negatives and needs to build organization.
Rubio is a problem on immigration and still comes off as a spoiled kid.
Byron York of National RINO Review only HOPES it means ‘trouble’ for Trump, the Cruz supporters both here and elsewhere are behaving as if Cruz just sewed up the nomination, when the delegate score stands at 8 for Cruz and 7 for Trump.
Of course they think they have that ‘Big Mo’ (momentum) coming out of Iowa, but a funny thing happened on the way to the convention for the last candidate thinking that way, and that was RINO-Poppy Bush in 1980.
WAY still early in the game.
We told you Trump guys that he had no organization on the ground, just a web site. And we also told you that Cruz’ organization on the ground was second to none. If Trump learns from it he will do better in the next few primaries. And it is not very classy to go around and blame your shortcomings on Christians. Besides, I heard the Donald himself say several times that he was doing great with Evangelicals. Maybe not as good as he thought!
Clinton’s supporters are no more honest than her.
The public is easily led. Watch the press stories, and you get a pretty good idea on where the public will go.
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