Posted on 01/28/2016 8:05:52 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Good news and bad news for Trump fans from Nate Cohn. The good news: If you’re looking for evidence that Monday night’s electorate will include a bunch of people who’ve never voted Republican before, which probably means a stronger than expected showing for Trump, here you go. New registrations for the GOP are up from where they were in 2012:
This is what the figures look like corrected AND with new data. It's a completely different story. pic.twitter.com/sbYDUchlo3
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 28, 2016
Those are dismal numbers for Bernie Sanders, who’s hoping to bring his own surge of independents and disaffected liberals into the Democratic caucus, but an encouraging sign for Trump. The bad news is that new registrations aren’t as robust as you might expect given the size of Trump’s media megaphone. As you can see, the GOP’s only about 1,000 new registrants ahead of where it was in the dismal 2012 primary. Several thousand more new Democrats were registered in 2008 at this point than new Republicans have registered this year. Which is easily explained: The Obama phenomenon was carried along not just by his media platform but by a world-beating organization with a terrific GOTV operation. Obama had to work to get his voters to caucus, even with the press swooning over him. How’s Trump doing with the other part of the “media + ground game” equation? Anecdotal evidence says … not well:
"They called me the othÂer night and said I'd be a preÂcinct capÂtain," she said as she stood in snow flurÂries waitÂing to enter a Trump rally. The job enÂtails callÂing othÂer poÂtenÂtial Trump supÂportÂers in MarÂshall County to reÂmind them to turn out Monday night at 7 p.m. Of course, to do that she needs names and phone numÂbers—which, as of earliÂer this week, she still had not reÂceived.
"I've asked for a list, and there's only a few days left, so I hope it's soon," she said…
Also in the neighÂborÂhood, in yet anÂothÂer ofÂfice park, was the Trump Iowa headquarÂters, where it was less clear what activÂity was takÂing place. A Trump staffer deÂclined to give NaÂtionÂal JournÂal acÂcess to anyÂthing beyÂond the entryÂway. In the course of an hour, not a single staff memÂber or voÂlunÂteer entered or exÂited the buildÂing.
The next day, at a nearby call cenÂter hired by Trump for phone-bankÂing, only eight voÂlunÂteers had signed in by midÂday—by which time othÂer camÂpaigns would have twice or three times as many people workÂing the phones.
Ace wonders why Trump, whose resources are basically inexhaustible, skimped on pouring money into his GOTV effort. That’s one of the great mysteries of the primary. He could have buried the other candidates with attack ads and field troops, and although critics would have screamed he was buying the nomination, most of the party would have shrugged. That’s one of Trump’s core invulnerabilities — he flaunts his wealth so much that there’s no way to shame him for enjoying it the way the left continuously shamed Romney for it. If he wanted to spend $200 million to destroy Cruz, he would have just said, “It’s my money, I worked hard for it,” and everyone apart from Cruz fans would have high-fived. But he hasn’t done that. Why come this far, leading the polls for the duration of the primary, only to get out-organized in the only poll that counts?
Aha, but what about new registrations on caucus day? Political junkies know by now that anyone can walk in on Monday night, register, and participate. Maybe the big surge is still to come. Maybe, but Cohn notes that that isn’t how it’s worked in the past, even for the Obama phenomenon:
The number of active registered voters increased by about 16,000 between January and February in 2008, and many of those newly registered voters didn't vote or participate in the G.O.P. race. It seems reasonable to assume that around 10,000 newly registered voters participated in the 2008 Democratic primary, or only about 4 percent of the electorate.
Most of the increase in turnout for Mr. Obama came from voters who were already registered but hadn't previously participated in the caucus, not from people who had not yet registered to vote.
Could be that Trumpmania will rely on the same sort of already-registered-but-disaffected voters that Obama did, in which case maybe the new-registrant numbers aren’t capturing the size of the wave that’s coming. For the record, though, the best caucus turnout the GOP’s ever had was 122,000 people in 2012. Monmouth assumed turnout of 170,000 people in its poll yesterday showing Trump leading Cruz by seven points. A more modest turnout of 130,000, which would still be record-setting, would produce … a dead heat between Cruz and Trump at 26 percent each. There’s more good news and potential bad news for Trumpers in that. The good news is that Trump has now gained enough on Cruz that he’s a threat to win even if there isn’t the sort of blockbuster gate-crashing among his fans that he’s hoping for. The bad news is that, if Cruz is out-organizing him in terms of turning out likely voters, maybe he’s also out-organizing him in registering people (and convincing registered-but-disaffected Republicans who support him to show up). Trump isn’t going to win all the first-time caucusgoers, after all. Whether he wins Iowa depends on his margin over Cruz in that category. The fact that the indicators for newbies on Monday night aren’t off the charts suggests that margin will be smaller than expected.
For more on the turnout numbers in Iowa, read streiff at Red State, who notes that Republican registrations are actually down from where they were a year ago. That’ll probably change as of Monday, when some people join the party to caucus, but it’s not the trend that a Trump fan wants to see.
The Touchback Trump campaign can’t even get the phone numbers of potential supporters to their precinct captains. That’s not a good sign for Donald Duck.
Meanwhile, it’s pretty much universally conceded that the best ground game belongs to Cruz.
But Trump will win because he says so.
Trump is a Conservative ... nice try
My husband is a 20 year career Navy Ret. SCPO. ‘60/80’s, he doesn’t vote for Draft Dodgers. This is just a small sample that has been ignored.
Questions linger about Trump’s draft deferments during Vietnam War
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/questions-linger-about-trumps-draft-deferments-during-vietnam-war/2015/07/21/257677bc-2fdd-11e5-8353-1215475949f4_story.html
Uniform foot boo-boo reason for deferment
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/photos-show-trump-military-garb-dodging-draft-article-1.2298248
1 Y to 4 F deferment.
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/file/trump-draft-deferment
And Trump wants more taxes, that is not conservative.
Trump’s Tax Plan: So Terrific That It Would Add More Debt Than Obama’s Seven Years In Office
With the shit lot of candidates the GOP put forward in 2012, I am surprised there were any new Republicans in 2012.
Democrats want Trump. He still has a pretty high percentage of people who view him negatively. Of all the GOP candidates I think only Jeb! and Christie have higher negatives.
“Trump is a Conservative”
Really? When did pro abortion, pro homo marriage, pro touchback amnesty, pro raise taxes on higher incomes,pro Hillary for Senate, pro DeBlasio for mayor, pro Cuomo for governor, pro Clinton Foundation, etc. become conservative values? Did I miss something?
If people are registering to vote as republican in amounts higher than 2012 in Iowa just imagine the rest of the country. If true I imagine a lot of them are voting for the first time and not all young people.
I believe this is proof that people that have never voted before see something in Trump that makes them want to vote for him, it’s most likely his tough stance on standing up for himself and America. Lots of people don’t vote because they don’t like politicians.
Yeah keep in mind who actually got the majority of Iowa’s delegates in 2012.
Ground game isn’t just GOTV.
I predict Cruz won’t win one state.
Iowa caucus rules have changed. National delegate votes will reflect and be bound by the presidential preference vote.
The presidential preference vote is now a primary in all but name, with the traditional caucusing for party business after the vote.
Yes but by both caucus and party rules, any of the delegates assigned to a candidate—via voting— who then drops out, become “free agents”. If the Paul folks, or anyone else, organize to get their folks elected delegates they can, once again, throw a wrench in the proceedings. Remember too that Iowa is a proportional delegate assignment state. Say Paul shocks everyone and comes in third on Monday night. Cruz and Trump continue to duke it out until the convention but Paul hangs around picking up a handful of proportional delegates and making sure he has plenty of convention delegates favorable to him that can vote for him either on the first ballot because they were assigned to a candidate that has dropped out, or on the second ballot when they’re free to pick whomever. It’s not a completely crazy scenario that leaves Rand Paul playing kingmaker.
That's from your link - reducing the cost of capital is pro-growth ... I don't see the down side ...
https://www.iowagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RPI-Bylaws-Updated-2015.pdf
...Delegates shall be bound to the candidates in direct proportion to the candidates’ respective vote shares in the Iowa Caucuses regardless of whether any such candidate has withdrawn from the race or otherwise does not have his or her name placed in nomination at the Republican National Convention...
Guess all those “high negatives” are why he is leading Cankles in places like MI +3 or PA+2 or FL +plenty or NC, or nationally in the last Fox poll.
Yeah, those “high negatives” really hurt.
As I have explained for a while, those so-called “ negatives” aren’t normal politician negatives or unfavorables because he isn’t a typical politician. You have to look at these the way people used to see J.R. Ewing or Richard Petty or the Undertaker in WWF: crowds know it’s part of the act, they ceremonially boo, then watch the show or buy the toys cause they really aren’t disliked.
1992 - Republicans nominated a non-fighter George HW Bush
1996 - Republicans nominated a non-fighter Bob Dole
2000 - Republicans nominated a pseudo-fighter George W Bush
2008 - Republicans nominated a non-fighter John McCain
2012 - Republicans nominated a non-fighter Mitt Romney
2016 - Republicans might nominate a fighter Donald Trump
ANY day, reporters will say most ANYthing to further THEIR chosen agenda among the sheep.
Among WHICH selected responders?
I seem to recall a fella like that...
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