Posted on 01/24/2016 9:56:04 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With only a few days until the Iowa caucuses, the political world is buzzing with anticipation for the presidential nomination process to go beyond polls and speeches to actual voting and caucusing.
Paying attention to the difference between these two types of processes is important because caucuses attract a very different set of citizens -- more ideological, more consistent and more partisan participants. We think this difference will matter.
So far, people have focused on Donald Trump's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls and on tensions between "outsider" candidates (like Trump) and more traditional "establishment" candidates. On the Democratic side, the question is how the expected front-runner Hillary Clinton will fare against an insurgent campaign from self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. Now, the critical question for all of these campaigns is how to get their supporters to show up.
As illustrated in the most recent CNN poll, different assumptions about the set of participants make a big difference. For instance, in the Iowa caucuses, Trump's lead disappears when only considering poll respondents who have previously caucused....
(Excerpt) Read more at gantdaily.com ...
When people start to talk about their superior “ground game” it usually means that they are in denial about their imminent defeat in the polls.
Says the hermit with the internet connection who just got done basically claiming to be the only true conservative in an entire mass of unwashed "fake conservatives" who support Trump. You're a sad and angry individual. You should see your family more, or something.
What about all of the NEVER CAUCUSED BEFORE voters, that Trump is bringing in?
The article goes into that.
I’m just glad you’re not in my family.
Cuz I'd stick you in a nursing home and forget about you.
In order to be eligible for the nomination, at the GOP convention, a candidate must wing 8 states outright, which discounts the early states and the Iowa caucus.
Which 8 states do you imagine Cruz is going to win outright?
That’s a lie.
Cruz was a Canadian citizen until when? Last week.
He’s not a NBC and Levin an Cruz’s other cronies KNOW IT, but are willing to toss the Constitution when it’s not convenient.
I’m 55 genius, not 85.
That stunt by Trump was just another of his stupid moves......he tried hard to back step, yet again, to no avail... except of course to his supporters who can’t even discern the utter contempt Trump has for them let alone when he shows that for others.
Very good article. They make some very strong points. One thing about this cycle though is that so many things governed by “conventional wisdom” or “traditional thinking” have been turned on their ear.
Nobody knows til they do the counting. But this has already been an amazing run up to the vote. One we’ll never forget. There will be more than a few late nights over the next year in front of the tv with nachos and beer, wondering what the heck will happen next.
I can’t wait.
Yes it would be nice to see them on the same ticket. I don’t think it is unlikely. While Trump has his sights set on Ted currently, Trump isn’t known to hold grudges. Depending on how Iowa rolls, will determine how soon they stop attacking each other.
The Windsock breaks wind and his followers swoon!
"Our research shows that those who attend caucuses are not only a smaller group; they are also much more ideologically extreme than voters who participate in primaries."
I believe it would be more accurate to characterize the caucus attendees (and especially the delegates elected in caucuses) to be those members of the public who are the angriest and have the most adrenaline. In a normal election, this set of people tends to be those who are ideologically extreme, as the article states. But this is not a normal election. We have people who are mad as hell (and not going to take it anymore) who are supporting a candidate whom "conservatives" claim is a "moderate." Just because Cruz is the more extreme candidate may not mean that his supporters have the most adrenaline.
Come on. Keep it clean. There is nothing wrong with arguing your points but keep to the subject matter and not take aim at each other.
Those girls sure love their daddy....sweet photo....
....my dad died when I was just 4 yrs. old so I don’t remember him very much. He , as with most of my family members, served our country well. When I see photos like this I often imagine I might have looked at my dad as that...and he me.
Once Iowa is behind us, if Santorum, Carson, and Huckabee don't get above single digits, there will be a lot of votes made available to anyone but the remaining GOPe candidates.
Whoopee!
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