Posted on 01/22/2016 7:05:26 AM PST by simpson96
The Democratic presidential nominee will win the race for the presidency but the election is shaping up as historically tight, according to a political model.
Less than 11 months from Election Day, Moody's Analytics is predicting that whomever lands the Democratic nomination will capture the White House with 326 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 212.
Those results are heavily dependent on how swing states vote. The latest model from Moody's reflects razor-thin margins in the five most important swing states - Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia.
In each of those states, the Democratic advantage is less than 1 percentage point, well within the margin of error.
The election model weighs political and economic strength in each state and determines the share of the vote that the incumbent party will win.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Trump will change this model big time. In fact on the news this morning, they said Democratic Party would only get 45-48 percent and the formula has only been wrong 3 times since 1960.
“Those results are heavily dependent on how swing states vote.”
i.e., we don’t know.
How does this model possibly account for Bernie Sanders, or Clinton after indictment?
Say “Hello” (or is it “Heil”) to President Bernie Sanders! Give it up now - no more arguing about DJT vs Cruz, Establishment vs outsider.
The election is all but wrapped up, we can go on with other things now. Or until Bernie gets into office and shuts down places like FR.
ANY analysis this far out is utterly meaningless.
That is true. I think the believe that Bernie Sanders has the same inspiration that Obama did in 2008. Not even close. The only way Sanders wins is if we have a weak candidate.
Trump 2016.
The proper title for the results of Moody’s analytics should have been “Too Close to Call.” So, to say the Dems win it is politicizing the results of the analytics.
While the dems own a structural advantage (guaranteed 240 EVs), their margin of victory won’t be that high. It’ll be closer than 2008 and 2012.
Strength of the economy? Really?
I thought the sucky economy was the #1 issue for Democrats.
I agree with the author but for different reasons. The Democrats have a built in advantage because the population centers are all or mostly all heavily Democrat. That in itself gives them about 230-240 electoral votes going in. Then given the Republicans propensity to eat their own, I see many many voters simply not bothering to vote this year.
Early in 2015, the frontrunners were telling us what they wanted to do if elected. Since Thanksgiving, it seems all we have heard is how awful their opponents are. Cruzers hate anything and everything Trump. Trumpsters hate anything and every thing Cruz. Change the names to Rubio, Bush and Kasich and it is just as bad or worse.
I am starting to think this country could even elect a Bernie Sanders at this point.
Well we might as well just cancel the general election and only hold the vote in the swing states. It would save a lot of time and money in our 40 or so red flyover states and the east and left coast that is guaranteed to be blue.
Silly people think old rules apply. Which Democrat a Communist or a Felon will beat Trump?
As popular as socialism is among millennials, Hispanics and blacks, the election of Sanders is not outside the realm of possibility at all.
If Trump is the nominee (which is very likely) the Dem advantage will take a serious hit as Trump puts NY into play.
See Post #16.
Good point, Senator Burr went so far to say that he would vote for a dem over Cruz. What democrat would say the opposite? There lies the rub
Moody’s...the same folks who rated subprimes as AAA. Hoo-kay!
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