Posted on 01/06/2016 1:13:54 PM PST by GonzoII
Wikipedia has some interesting info. McCain was the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday but had not won a majority of REPUBLICAN voters in any state. Similar situation with Romney.
This has to stop.
Iowa is do or die for Senator Cruz. He can't afford to lose there, unlike Trump who is leading everywhere else. That's why he's gone full-Jesus recently.
"Trump actually ranks 8th out of the 12 candidates in New Hampshire in net favorability with only 49% of GOP voters seeing him favorably to 44% with a negative opinion. But his support has the greatest intensity among the top level candidates- 68% of his supporters say they're firmly committed to him compared to 63% for Cruz, 58% for Bush, 46% for Rubio, 40% for Christie, and just 34% for Kasich on that metric. Looking at the race just among those who say their mind is totally made up, Trump's support goes up to 38% to 13% for Rubio, 12% for Cruz, 11% for Bush, 9% for Christie, and 7% for Kasich."
Yeh 29% to 15% is a real squeaker. I see Teddy tied with Yeb for 4th. He better take Iowa or he has really wasted a lot of other people’s money. :-)
Iowa is do or die for Senator Cruz. He can’t afford to lose there, unlike Trump who is leading everywhere else. That’s why he’s gone full-Jesus recently.
I never realized the path to the Lord went through Goldman Sachs. You learn something new every day.
States aren’t only made up of one party. Caucus/primary details are typically subject to state law as well as party rules. The last two Presidents won the White House by first winning their respective Iowa caucuses.
I’m way done with those in D.C. If they somehow concoct some fraud scheme to deny him the nomination, I’m not playing. At that point I’m going fishing!
I see Teddy had to do a flip flop in ethanol today to try to save himself in Iowa.
This is one of those polls that the internals would concern me. 80% of the respondents were queried by landline. It is getting to the point where I don't know anyone with a landline. The other was done by opt in computer polling. The way I understand this (and I could be wrong) is people opt in to a pool and they are randomly picked out of those volunteers. That deck of initial volunteers could definitely be stacked.
No Dems in Nh, but Inds ok
“Four different establishment candidates all polling in double digits is what’s allowing Trump to have such a big lead in the state.”
As I said about six months ago, it’s the reverse of 2012. Then it was establishment Romney vs. four or five conservatives. Now the shoe is on the other foot.
Interesting line about Cruz from the article: “He’s the next in line for Trump voters and it’s not even close.”
I look for Cruz to finally go after Trump’s voters for that reason, but to wait until quite close to each primary since most of Trump’s supporters won’t be paying all that much attention until election day nears. Also, going after his voters doesn’t mean the same thing as going after Trump himself. I’m guessing he’ll avoid that.
What? Trump has a huge lead. Cruz is tied with the laughable Jeb with 10%. If Cruz wins IA and suddenly takes 20 points away from Trump in NH, He can call himself the new Joshua as far as I am concerned.
I keep hearing that 'armor' for Cruz will come roaring out the frozen, wintry Ardennes of NH - but beyond a single digit lead in tiny IA it looks like a bunker delusion.
Most politicians go where they feel they need to go - whether to expand their vote or protect their flank. Ask yourself why Cruz is embedded in the hinterland of IA while Trump takes time for MA.
No, actually, I like the idea of a tri-regional primary, say NH, SC and MO the same day.
I think the primary should be the same day, nationwide, both parties, so no one can vote in both. It should be just like the general election only divided into parties.
The Bush/Kasich/Christie/Carson/Fiorina et al voters may soon have to choose somebody else. And only a moron would think Trump is going to pick that up. Trump will have to get Independents to come into the process and register as Republicans, and the door is closing on that opportunity.
Here in Colorado, the deadline to participate was 3 days ago. All delegates from Colorado will be chosen through the caucus system (Precinct Caucus is March 1st). "Independents" HAVE NO VOICE in the nominating process. Of course, they could, if it was more important to them than bragging that they are "independent." (as if that were something worthy of admiration).
The people that participate in the caucuses are not Johnny-come-latelies, they've been involved and well-informed for a long time, they are the people that show up. When El Paso County (Largest by far in the State) GOP had an open and publicly advertised big-screen debate-watching party recently that I attended, a straw poll was held. What was Trump's support among the likely caucus-goers? 5%! Yes, FIVE.
Trump is not playing the game well at the grassroots level, he could easily get most of the primary vote and lose the nomination (like HIllary in 2008), because of organizational reliance upon lawyers instead of regular grass-roots organizers and planners. Unfortunately for Trump, many of his supporters think that anger and rallies and bumper stickers money will get them where they need to go. I think they are mistaken.
Forgive me for my rant, but "independents" in caucus or closed primary states ought to wear a sign that says "I am a non-participating sheep by choice and deeply proud of it, please pat me on my back and help me feel good about being such an innocent fool."
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