Iowa has not been good indicator of who wins nomination.
Huckabee & Santorum both won Iowa.
That makes sense, since barely 5% of Iowans bother to spend better part of a day to attend a caucus.
Even NH is not a a good indicator.
SC has been a much better indicator for the eventual winner.
And that means exactly warm spit because Bush and Obama did. Guess who got 16 years of Presidency? Iowans are like the magic 8 ball. 50-50. Doesn't portend failure or success.