Posted on 12/10/2015 8:12:29 AM PST by Teacher317
There are reasons why Donald Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee, and they have little to do with the will of the voters.
(Disclaimer: I have been openly for Cruz, and continue to be so, but I have also openly admitted that if Cruz is not the GOP nominee, I will vote for Trump as GOP or 3rd Party... or else I write in Cruz.)
The problem, not surprisingly, is the GOP and the RNC. Back in 2014, they quietly changed the rules for the GOP Primaries. The TEA Party was surging, and the GOPe didn't want actual grassroots voters to mess up their cozy lives with actual support for American interests by the American people. So, in order to make sure that it was close to impossible for a popular TEA Party type to gain the nomination, they simply declared that ALL GOP Primaries held between March 1 and March 14 shall designate their delegate proportionally, and not "winner-takes-all". This starts with Super Tuesday, and includes TWENTY state GOP Primaries and Caucuses (Caucii?).
Now, some states have always been proportional, and some are still winner-take-all, but this new wrinkle does a lot more than you might expect.
Looking just at the numbers for the first 24 GOP Primaries/Caucuses that take place before March 15, we have:
FEB 1, Iowa:
For the first time, starting in 2016, the caucus site voting that was previously a non-binding poll becomes the binding method of selecting delegates. Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites. (In 2012, Paul got 22 of the Iowa delegates to Mitt's 6)
Monmouth on MON had Cruz ahead at 24%, then Trump 19, Rubio 17, Carson 13... that's 6 delegates for Trump, of 28
Monmouth poll MON DEC 7
Also: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/17/donald-trump-seen-unlikely-to-win-in-iowa-despite-/?page=all
FEB 9, New Hampshire (proportional)
Always vastly different, and allows ANYONE on the ballot, if they pay the $1000 fee. There were 33 in 2016!
Most recent poll, Trump 32%, Rubio 14% (up 5 points), Christie 9%, Bush 8%, Kasich 7%, Cruz 6%, Fiorina and Carson at 5%.. That's 10 of 29 delegates for Trump.
CNN NH poll, DEC 8
FEB 20, South Carolina (winner Take All:
Trump ahead, 24% to Cruz at 16... That's fifty delegates to Trump.
FEB 23 Nevada (Proportional):
Trump at 38 pct, 34 GOP delegates... 14 of 34 for Trump...
Now the next TWENTY states and their all-proportional Primaries begin. Since I don't want to look up 20 more polls, let's just use yesterday's CBS polling numbers (Trump 27, Cruz 17)... Even giving Trump 57 percent of the delegates for the first four states (thanks to the winner-takes-all in big SC), after the next 20 states between MAR 1 and MAR 14, he now has only about 30 percent of the GOP delegates after 24 of the 50 Primaries. This means that he must take about 70 percent of the remaining delegates, AND finish with over fifty percent in at least SEVEN of the last 26 Primaries, or else he is not qualified to be on the GOP ballot, and the GOP and RNC get to dive in and drive the winner to the finish line. Add in unfaithful electors and you can really start to see why Trump may be the top candidate in the most states, and STILL not get the GOP nod... which is why I think he has suddenly started talking again about being treated "fairly" by the GOP or else possibly going 3rd Party.
With how desperate they’ve been lately, do you have an doubt that they would try?
I’m a Cruz supporter too.
But I know a great bet when I see one.
I’ll bet you a $100 donation to Free Republic. I say Trump will be the Republican nominee. You say Not Trump will be the Republican nominee. Loser pays JimRob.
Deal?
I love Cruz. I’m a double maxed donor. But at this hour of this day, your money has to be on Trump, in spite of any math, pluralities, games by the GOPe, etc. I’ll take the Trump side of the bet.
I dearly want Ted to win, take Texas at 50%+, and fight all the way to the convention with a pure majority of delegates. But do I think that is PROBABLE? Nope.
You aren’t wrong. They will try, but I believe they will fail.
It will get interesting if Sanders wins the Democrat popular vote in the primaries and Trump wins the GOP popular vote, and both parties hand the nomination to their hand-picked favorite.
I think that’s when we go down to our respective party headquarters and burn our Voter ID cards....by placing each one in a large bottle of gasoline and throwing it through the window.
And Jeb STILL can’t figure out why nobody liked him.
After all, Mommy and Daddy and brother told him to go for it.
LOL
After tonite Trump will be carrying the GOPe’s balls in his pocket.
Not having any they won’t do a damn thing.
Tonight is the night we will see the Donald start to look like the frontrunner.
Yes Trump will have more delegates in his pocket than he needs by the convention. There isn’t much the party can do at that point. Any talk of Mitt Romney at this point is just a joke.
At some point, the 'why' won't matter as much as the 'who.'
Thanks for sharing.
Vanities are front page news?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.