Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
Go, Ted.
Let’s see the Republican Party nominate the best conservative candidate. For a change.
Their site is bad enough as it is without this ridiculous oversight.
They would be BEAUTIFUL ice-skating rinks, big beautiful rinks, believe me, so fabulous, that I can tell you!
Are you a big donor? Did you give millions? Do you have businesses using cheap labor? I hardly think you qualify.
How can Trump kick liberal butt when he gave so much money to it?
He’d be just another example of how Republicans can’t run a candidate on a key issue, will be whether we can trust Hillary Clinton or not.
Trump did. He gave money to her. And before we hear from all the “it’s just business” Trumpies, that simply means his principles are for sale.
He's God. He's Jesus. He's even Allah if he wants to be. He's going to get every single vote in the damned country. He's going to kiss every baby and autograph every bare breast. Hell, he's the man in the Dos Equis commercials......
Methodological note: This poll marks a slight modification in Monmouth's sampling methodology for the Iowa Republican caucuses. Prior sample frames included past state primary voters only. The current poll includes a small proportion (30%) of regular general election voters. The addition of these voters did not have a significant impact on the overall findings. For example, under the previous tighter sampling frame, Cruz's support would be 25% compared to 24% in the full sample, Trum'’s support would be 16% rather than 19%, and Carson's 13% support would be unchanged. Rubio’s support using the prior frame would be slightly higher (21%) than in the current frame (17%). The current sample frame suggests a high-end turnout level of approximately 140,000 caucusgoers.
I didn’t say he would...I said that’s how you win primaries iMO and that’s what Newt was doing when he was winning last time.
until you can show us someone who gave to Cruz who is, your point is not relevant and your rant is shallow.
Yeah, I know.
I like Ted a lot too. He’s brilliant.
That won’t cut it. Notice how long he dwelled in the doldrums of the polls.
People are fooling themselves if they think he’s going to nail The Beast. She’s on a mission to crucify every white males who ever barked at his wife. And the Rat patronage gangsters aren’t going to let their gravy train go away without a murderous fight.
Cruz will even get kneecapped by the Bush Uniparty donors: he’s anathema to them, not a good little boy who dutifully votes to fully fund the Donor Class Business Needs.
So the only heavyweight - and man is he one - is Trump.
Him they are genuinely terrified of, because upset the applecart he can. And will....
So Don’s the man. The guy who brought up the Elephant in the Room: immigration. So he’s got The Issue, and he’s got The Cash.
Winning combination. He’ll need everything against the Rat Sludge Machine.
/johnny
I will research and get back to you. Why else would Cruz be for amnesty? He knows it’s unpopular, mincing words with legal or citizen. Someone tell me why he would be for it if not pressure from donors.
I’m listening.
Yeah, look how far Jeb’s money has taken him.
I clarified in my 2nd post.
He’s not for amnesty. He understands that until we secure the border, whatever deportation fantasies we might harbor are irrelevant.
You know, like Kate Steinle’s murderer? Deported SUCCESSFULLY SIX TIMES...yes, SIX TIMES - and yet, he was still back here to kill her. How? NO BORDER SECURITY.
Until we stop the bleeding, nothing else matters.....except that we might destroy each other and elect someone who won’t ever secure the border....
I’ll be awaiting your failed attempt to counter my Kate Steinle point. You simply cannot.
< “The GOPe can.t be too happy about the Cruz surge. They are in quite a fix with the Trump/Cruz 1-2 punch and Jebbie hovering in mid-single digits.” >
I fear the GOPE will eventually figure out the only way to take out Trump is to target his weakness, his gawsh-awful emo reliance on “the polls.” IOW, they may try to use Cruz and a few well-timed polls (like they tried w/Carson) to get inside Trumps head, hoping Trump will implode. Even a mini-implosion could be enough if it drives Trump over the edge enough to attack Cruz.
This is a crucial time in Trump’s campaign. If he and Cruz are working together, no problem... They’ll keep rocking along without feeding the media monsters who are looking for a Trump blood scent so they can push their efforts to start a Trump/Cruz Feud. If they aren’t talking behind the scenes, I’m hoping Trump kicks his brain into high gear and plays it cool here. If he attacks Cruz, IMO he’ll sink with conservatives, leaving him with only moderates, some minorities, and liberals who see through Hillary.
The saddest thing to me, if it happens, is I don’t think Cruz can beat The Dems. He doesn’t have enough money to hire lawyers when Hillary has illegals, dead people, and felons voting for her. This is the time and place in history where we need an obnoxious, take no prisoners bully!
Trump/Cruz 2016
... an obnoxious, take no prisoners, RICH bully. One who hates to lose!
Wake UP! Jeb could have Trump's money and NOT get the nomination.
Jeb Bush has NO MESSAGE and shows little or NO signs of LEADERSHIP.
Are you a conservative? This should make you happy.
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