Posted on 11/26/2015 8:20:18 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright
In an exchange with Paul Krugman, political scientist Alan Abramowitz made one of the best cases I've heard for, as Krugman put it, "thinking the Trumpthinkable." At some point, Abramowitz argued, pundits need to admit that Trump has a good chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination.
But that remains a minority viewpoint. Nate Silver, for instance, published a piece arguing that analysts extrapolating forward from Trump's current (and impressively durable) poll lead are likely to be disappointed. So I called Abramowitz and asked him to walk me through his argument in more detail.
(snip)...... I saw what Nate Silver posted on FiveThirtyEight, and what he's saying is reasonable based on the history of these presidential nominations, but there are a couple things I think are different this year.
Silver makes the case that the polls at this point don't necessarily mean much, and you can get big swings in voter preferences in relatively short periods of time. And that's true. What I think is different is Republicans are tuned in to a much greater degree than they were at this point in previous nomination contests. You can see that in polling when you ask whether voters are paying attention, and you can see that in ratings for the debates. The idea that voters aren't tuned in yet and won't make up their minds till January or later may not prove as true as it has in the past.
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
Hell, thats an easy question that Ann Coulter already answered. The ONLY people who like Trump are..........................The voters.
I’d LOVE to see what Trump would do to hillary robbem klipem.
In 2008 we witnessed the total destruction of Sarah Palin at the hands of the GOPe and the MSM. Nobody defended her but the conservatives who were totally ignored.
Here we are 7 years later and the same groups that hurt Palin are after trump. Sarah had no money to defend herself even though many conservatives tried to help but she was FORCED to resign as Alaska Governor.
Donald Trump doesn’t have that same money problem and because he is so determined to fight fire with fire, he has earned the respect of the people who hate the way most other campaigns have been run.
Trump is our candidate not the golden boy the GOPe wanted and he will have our support until he is elected or rejected.
For those who would be happy to see him rejected, better be careful how they try to do it and more so why.
‘the ONLY WAY Trump can lose now is by turning left on immigration’
The ‘elephant in the room’ that these libs and others are missing- or don’t want revealed- is that Trump has united conservatives and moderates with his immigration stance.
Conservatives plus moderates is a winning coalition in the primary and in the general.
I’m not sure why you think that post was relevant to this.....and FTR, Palin is far more conservative than Trump - tho I’ll admit the Jurassic media treats them similarly.
Personally I’d keep on investing in fallen angels, but suit yourself. I share your general feelings. I’ve been bypassing the half-assers and contributing directly to the good guys (Reagan, Laxalt, Helms, Cruz, etc.) since the mid-seventies.
Whats with this bordering stuff?
Trump leading all the polls for 4.5 months, drawing crowds of thousands and he might win. I would never have come up with that one. :-)
Lol!! Love it :)
Happy Thanksgiving, GG2.
I am glad to see this type of honesty does exist in far left media. Usually it is hand-wringing pajama boy shi-ite like THIS ....
I would argue the establishment understands the situation very well. Further, they are not delusional in reaction.
Their problem is a very charismatic Trump and a somewhat charismatic Carson. The second tier is coalescing into Rubio and Cruz. Both are lifers and therefore subject to disdain by the masses fed up with the House Of Cards all politics all the time mentality.
The establishment problem is at root, nothing effective with which to respond to charisma.
I agree. I think Rubio is very unlikely. His achilles heel is his participation in the gang of 8 and I believe that is fatal. Rubio doesn’t know what kind of candidate he wants to be. Cruz has potential and I think ultimately will end up as Trump’s VP. Personally I’d like to see Cruz on the Supreme Court someday. He’d fit right with the Scalia, Thomas, and Alito.
Whether or not the establishment does understand it very well, they haven’t yet published or stated any particularly coherent description the way these guys did.....and more to the point, it’s still fascinating that they would write a piece not critical of Trump, but merely on the “whys” of his popularity.
I also think the description of Rubio and Cruz as “lifers” is simply not correct. Neither one are Washington lifers, and the House of Cards is a Washington dynamic through and through. (and BTW, a great analogy that I’ve used many times).
My point was the attacks on Trump and Palin are almost exact duplicates, the differences are that Trump has more money and bulldog determination to weather the storm.
I had hoped that Palin could do the same but with all the legal fees was just not able too.
Trump/Cruz 2016.
That’s true - and I would also add that the public has learned A LOT about the GOP-E and the Jurassic media even since 2008. The attacks on Palin were something at a new level.....at the time. From both.
Now we’re used to it...but even in 2012, the understanding of “the establishment” was far less than it is now. And that’s a good thing....that we know our enemies better now.
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