Posted on 11/18/2015 2:45:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
So … what’s the Jeb Bush path to the nomination again? Donald Trump was supposed to fade, then Ben Carson, leaving Bush as the most electable man in the field — especially in the critical state of Florida, where Bush served two terms as a highly popular governor. Instead, it looks like Bush is doing the fading in the Sunshine State, as Adam Smith reports for the Tampa Bay Times:
A newly released poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows Donald Trump with a two-to-one advantage over everybody else and former Gov. Jeb Bush in fifth place, behind Ted Cruz.
“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,†said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.
The report from FAU (available on their site in PDF form) notes just how little traction Bush has left in his home state:
It appears the GOP primary fight has left all the candidates popularity upside down. Trump holds a 41 percent favorable and 51percent unfavorable impression among all voters but that is reversed among likely GOP voters with a 63 percent to 32 percent favorable opinion. Similarly, Rubio’s name recognition is also underwater at 42 percent to 47 percent but improves to 67 percent to 23 percent among GOP primary voters. Carson has seen his numbers drop from a 53 percent favorable rating in September to 41 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable in November but among GOP primary voters he improves to 63 percent to 26 percent.
The poll appears to be bad news for Bush with 34 percent of respondents having a favorable opinion and 51 percent have an unfavorable. Among likely GOP primary voters his numbers improve to 46 percent favorable and 41percent unfavorable. Among Hispanic GOP Primary voters Rubio leads both Trump and Carson 34 percent to 19 percent each. Bush receives 13 percent of the Hispanic vote.
The breakout of support by ethnic demographic is actually pretty good for Donald Trump. Among white voters, he leads 39/16.3 over Rubio. Trump comes in second among African-American voters to Rand Paul, 31.6/21.1, with Ben Carson tied with Jeb Bush for third at 15.8% — and Rubio getting no support, as in zero. Rubio leads among Hispanic voters with 34%, but Trump and Carson tie for second at 19.1%, and Bush trailing at 12.8%. That certainly puts an interesting spin on the conventional wisdom that Trump is alienating Hispanics.
Back to the overall trends in Florida. Here’s a graph that shows the impact of the last two months on the campaign trail:
Trump has actually picked up a little more momentum rather than showing any signs of fading. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson have also moved up, and in Carson’s case past Bush. Rubio is essentially unchanged since September, but still good enough to stay firmly in second place. The former governor of the state has dropped back a little over two points in the same period — within the MOE, but not in a direction that would boost confidence in his future in the race.
This poll matches up well with the trends seen in the RealClearPolitics averages for Florida over the last month:
The only candidate doing a slow fade over this point in time is Bush, who has fallen almost four full points in his home state in the RCP average since October 19th, a period that spans two prime-time debates. He’s running fifth, so even if Trump and Carson stumble, Bush would have to push past Rubio and Cruz to take Florida’s delegates in its winner-take-all primary. How likely are Trump and Carson’s voters to choose Jeb as their fallback position? Not likely, not even in Florida.
Bobby Jindal withdrew yesterday, saying it was not yet his time. The data so far in this primary is that Jeb Bush may be past his time, even with the huge donor backstop. Voters simply aren’t buying Bush stock, and if he can’t be competitive in Florida, he isn’t going to do better in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
Leni
The GOPe will DEMAND that Bush pull out before the Primary there, so as to clear the field for Rubio.
Bush will pull out (he never wanted to run, but his parents and brothers forced him), but given these numbers, it won’t be enough for Rubio (who still has trouble explaining how he supported legalizing 30 MILLION Illegals, of which 80% will vote Democrat).
So Trump wins and Rubio loses, either way. And either way, THE COUNTRY WINS!
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