I will no longer post polls without detailed internals. Monmouth also has a poll with similar numbers today, but no breakout of results by gender and alignment, though they do list the number they asked, but not what they said.. If someone can find it on their website I would welcome a correction
Although I hold a doctorate in Statistics and have spent years in the company of some of the world’s elite thinkers, I would never comment in support or denial of a political poll.
One of the biggest reasons to discount ANY political poll is that all of such polls have enormous nonresponse rates. And in fact, I have seen in conference room settings among colleagues how just about any poll with such high nonresponse rates can be skewed to have just about any outcome desired. Put it this way, the analysis of global warming holds more weight than political polls, and that’s hardly none at all.
It wasn’t always that way, but then the media channels have been drastically reconfigured since a time when any veracity could be attributed to a political poll.
But there is one aspect of political polls to take away as valid, and that is when most such polls show a candidate with very little support.
In other words, polls showing a lead are not to be believed. Polls showing a loss can be taken seriously.
If ALL such polls start showing a decline to single digits, it’s a good indication that candidate is headed for a loss.
And, if ALL polls show a surge of a candidate, it is not to be taken seriously especially in light of overwhelming nonresponses.
I view Trump’s positive performance in polls as a means of advertising his success, whether real or not. Personally, I am persuaded by Trump’s unequivocal support of our veterans and troops. No poll is needed to see his track record on this.
But if I were asked what indicators can be reliably held to show Donald Trump is leading in support of voters, I would say it is the massive crowds he attracts everywhere he goes, and the roar and applause he receives at his rallies including among liberal audiences.
Responding to a poll takes almost no energy and a nonresponse takes zero energy. But to get oneself up, prepare to travel, put aside other plans and attend a rally to see Donald Trump, that is an assured vote. That is as assured as if it was election day.
Other indicators are more reliably drawn from chats overheard in barber shops and beauty parlors. Because these are neutral venues.
I have heard people from so many different demographic groups, from all ages and backgrounds, who support Trump because they see a leader they want to see and they want the world to see. It’s really as simple as that. All the others are wannabe leaders. Trump is the force of leadership and people can see that.