Hillary would win.
Black president. Been there. Done that. Hasn’t work out so well.
Many of those who voted for the first black president did so to ‘be a part of history.’ Those same mentalities would vote for the first female president, again to ‘be a part of history.’
I doubt that very seriously. Dr. Carson would eviscerate the Democratic base in the country. I don’t think she would poll within 5% of him heading into election day. He would mop the floor with her.