I would expect that in poll, with a 4% margin of error, of only those people who are likey to vote in the republican primary, Trump and Cruz would be higher by 4 to 6 points each and Carson would remain about the same. I say this because the supporters of these three candidates seem the most motivated to go to the polls.
I’m not sure. At conferences I speak at, there are a lot of Carson supporters among those I’ll call the “highly religious.”
I see very little enthusiasm for a Jeb! poll-voter to actually vote. (It’s “Jeb is who I have been told to like” not “That’s who “I” reallly like!!”)
Trump is a fervent “Screw the media and screw Washington” enthusiasm.
Carson is also a “Screw the media and screw Washington and screw the establishment, “but” this a guy who can do it”