Other than the occasional wave, the water's awesome.
Posted on 10/19/2015 6:59:50 PM PDT by markomalley
This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.
"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."
That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.
"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."
Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.
But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision on eminent domain.
"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."
McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."
The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.
While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.
The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?
The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.
And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.
Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.
It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.
Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.
“Remember Mississippi”
Those tricks at a national level may well lead to determined civil disobedience. The Soviet Union fell when enough people just said, “enough”, and it was over.
Dont forget Kelly Megan! She will deal final deathblow along with her flying monkey talking head fair and balanced political pundits.
The author has no idea what a Conservative is these days.
LOL! nice.
Wow.
The g.o.p.e. just made me a Trump supporter.
Fox’s Megyn kelly did her best to nail Trump Tonight on the Bush is to blame for 9-11 topic. CNN was fair—some say that Bush was asleep at the switch and didn’t take terrorism seriously. A case could be made for Trumps idea. This will not stick—BUT the GOPe and RINO-Types as well as the MSM will do what they can to wreck his chances. They will stop at nothing short of Assassination—I believe. Turmp must be stopped! Jeb Bush must get the Nod. The Cheap Labor must flow into the USA—Public safety is not an issue! Its get that cheap labor! Jeb must run-—and lose to Biden.
He also has the best 2nd amendment plan of any politician I’ve ever seen. His tax plan is great as well.
Absolutely. Hitting Trump, is hitting me. I don’t even know any Republicans any more. We are all just Trump supporters, now. Republicans are either establishment hacks, or they are just...well,.....stupid.
So who is it the Republicans want to win back? If not us, whom? Do they think they can pick off a few Democrats? Heck, Trump already has them. lol! Do they want voters for Jeb? Heck, Hillary already has them. WTH do they want? lol.
We have a little UniParty of our very own.
Neither are they conservative. How can they attack him when they’ve always lied about being conservative?
”But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
The GOPee must be on the look out for those “smart” RINOs to run the negative ads. This is the same thing Romney did to Gingrich in one state, Florida. Romney flooded the market with anti-Gingrich ads – mailers, radio ads, TV ads almost non stop, day after day.
Gingrich didn’t know lying ads to that extent were coming. He didn’t have the money to counter Romney’s lies. He wasn’t anywhere near well known as Trump so it was easy for Romney to get by with his lies. Romney was able to block Gingrich out of the ad market and slow his ability to respond even when he tried to respond.
I can’t imagine Trump being taken by surprise. People already know him. He has more than enough money and he knows how to fight back. He has more than enough lawyers to make advertisers think twice about blocking him from responding. He knows how to use the much cheaper social media. Something the GOPee is clueless about.
”There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision on eminent domain.”
There is only one person I would say is truly conservative, Ted Cruz. All the rest of them are squishier than a bowl of watered down Jello.
While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.
Liar, liar pants on fire. Remember Mississippi.
Ads? Hey Club for Growth, the 90’s called and wants its ads back! Does Club have 4.62 million Twitter followers? Do they even know what that is or means?
I know you have been leaning this way and if you were going to be needed for battle, I thought you would join up. :)
Honestly, I believe others will feel the same. The corruption is forcing our hand and it’s forcing us into a battle stand. Trump is a force and together we might have one last shot at stopping the bleeding of America.
I just don’t believe we have another candidate like him. God knows we need a Patton-type bull in the china closet to win this time.
From your lips...hammer that creepy nest of rats.
Actually it was an serious question. Please forgive me if I am being naive.
This entire Campaign Season is Off The Record.
A Commie, a Felon, a Doctor, a Billionaire.
Sounds like the Cast of Gilligan’s Island.
Other than the occasional wave, the water's awesome.
York is kind of stupid. Does he not know of the attempt to nominate William Scranton in 1964? Or the third party candidacy of John Anderson in 1980?
In fact, the only GOP candidates they have not tried to sabotage have been the "moderates," Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney-- quite a line up of feeble winners and decrepit losers.
Translation: loser looking for a job.
“Trump takedown: Panicked establishment readies for war against GOP front-runner”
WHAT??? AGAIN???
What they mean is Trump isn’t at all a conservative like their two front runner conservatives, Bush and Rubio...HaHaHaHa...That’s the appeal towards Trump...He’s not at all like Republican conservatives...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.