Posted on 10/08/2015 12:47:48 PM PDT by VinL
Will Ted Cruz pick up Trump’s supporters if the mogul starts to fade? Many, if not most, reporters seem to think so. Cruz himself may think so. The data, however, strongly suggest this a fool’s errand.
As I’ve written elsewhere (here, most recently), Trump supporters come from all factions of the GOP. Indeed, most polls show that Trump runs better among self-described moderates than among very conservative voters. Cruz, however, has always been a candidate of the Tea Party/very conservative base. Virtually every poll shows that he is best thought of by very conservative voters, who number about a third of the party nationwide.
Moreover, so far he draws almost all of his support from self-described Tea Party voters who are an even smaller number. Despite what the media tell you, the polls are clear that Tea Partiers and very conservative voters are a minority within the GOP by a large margin.
Cruz’s troubles can best be seen in the PPP national poll of GOP primary voters released this morning. While this is only one poll, it shows what every other poll to date has shown regarding the huge differences between Cruz’s and Trump’s support. Cruz is favored by 7 percent of PPP poll respondents. That number jumps to 15 percent among Tea Partiers, good enough to put him in third place. But that’s only 18 percent of the sample.
Sixty-eight percent say they are not Tea Party supporters, and Cruz’s support slumps to a mere five percent among them. This distinction is seen even more starkly in a question only PPP asks. PPP asks GOP voters which they prefer in a nominee, a candidate who is the most conservative on the issues or one with the best chance of beating the Democrat.
Thirty-six percent say they want the most conservative candidate, and Cruz polls a respectable 14 percent among them. Fifty-one percent choose electability, however, and only an anemic two percent of these voters choose Cruz. This pattern – Cruz only appeals to the very conservative voter – holds no matter how you slice the electorate. He gets 15 percent among very conservative voters, again good enough for third. But that’s only thirty percent of the national GOP electorate. His support drops to 5 percent among the largest ideological faction, somewhat conservatives, and plummets to a mere three percent among moderates and liberals....
Cruz has based his entire career on the premise that very conservative voters are the ignored majority among Republicans. That may be true in the Republican South, but it is not true nationally. The very image that draws many Republicans to him repels or annoys a larger number.
To put it in terms he might understand, a majority of Republican voters have more in common with Mitch McConnell than with him. Until he realizes that and does something to make those voters like him, Cruz will remain a polarizing figure who has no chance to become the nominee, let alone President.
" To put it in terms [Cruz] might understand, a majority of Republican voters have MORE IN COMMON WITH Mitch McConnell than with him. Until he realizes that and does something to make those voters like him, Cruz will remain a polarizing figure who has no chance to become the nominee, let alone President."
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Right. And when Mitch campaigned for re-election in Kentucky, who did he HAVE MORE IN COMMON WITH: Ted Cruz or the current DC version of Mitch McConnell?
How do some of these writers get national bylines????
Doesn’t jibe with the following FP post-—http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3346342/posts
I support Trump and Cruz.
Period.
By logical extension they would also have more in common with John Boehner, and we see how well that worked out...
If McConnell is the GOP, then I'm not GOP.
I support Cruz first, but he lacks the money and won’t sell out. So best case is Trump one terms it with Cruz as the VP. Then Cruz runs after that.
I think Carson is a great guy and hope he becomes Surgeon General. He’s not presidential material.
Rubio looked promising, but had to sell his soul to get the money to run. He’s out.
If true, then we may as well pull the plug on the GOP.
[I support Trump and Cruz]
There are MANY who feel this way.
Well, Henry, we’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we?
Hehehe...the establishment wants us to think that the majority in the GOP is more like McConnell and Boehner...but what is happening in the House is more representative of what is coming, and it is going to bleed over into the Senate too.
Most people I know are absolutely frustrated by the establishment types like McConnell and Boehner...and it is showing.
SO, Henry, as much as you would apparently like to think Cruz will not benefit...I believe you are flat out wrong about it, and will be voting accordingly.
This is a Nat Rev article. Another daily hit piece on conservatism.
Thanks for posting, and agree it is absurd. As things stand today, I am decidedly for Trump, and yes I know he is not a principled conservative. However, he has some conservative positions and I -am- convinced he will act on them. I am also convinced he will bust some balls in Washington D.C., and that will be at least something, if short of heads on pikes.
All of THAT said, if Trump dropped out today I would go to Cruz. After that... I really don’t see anything. Nothing at all. Carson is a very easy to like Christian brother, but I have not seen the steel executive that is needed. And after that it is just a melange of mystery meat that smells a bit off.
So, yeah, I am a Trump supporter but would indeed shift to Cruz as my next choice, and the author is a yuge pathetic clown.
Cruz will get my vote in the primaries. And if he doesn’t win the primaries, but Trump does, I’ll vote for Trump in the general. I really hope Cruz wins the primaries.
I haven’t been GOP for many years now.
Buckley is fuming in his grave at the sight of the morons that have taken over National Review.
Think it is telling that Cruz and Trump are not shooting at each other. I think they both realize who the real enemies are in this fight.
Cruz has plenty of money and an extensive network of volunteers.
...and it is sad seeing people like Jindal thowing baby fits about it.
Gee, another Trump might fade article.
BTW, I’d vote for Cruz for President in a heartbeat if he’s the nominee even though I also equally support Trump.
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