Latest polls likely to make the GOP establishment sweat

MSNBC ^ | 10/5 | Steve Benen

[TangledUpInBlue]

It’s October. Here are the latest national results from the Pew Research Center.

1. Donald Trump: 25% 2. Ben Carson: 16% 3. Carly Fiorina: 8% 3. Marco Rubio: 8% 5. Ted Cruz: 6% 6. Jeb Bush: 4% 7. Mike Huckabee: 2% 7. Rand Paul: 2%

The remaining candidates are at 1% or below in the Pew findings. (Note, this is the first survey of the cycle from the Pew Research Center, so I didn’t include figures as to whether the candidates’ support was increasing or decreasing.)

In addition to Trump’s role as the frontrunner – a role he hasn’t relinquished since surging to the top in the early summer – pay particular attention to Jeb Bush’s surprisingly poor showing. It may be an outlier, but if the Florida Republican’s national backing has dropped to just 4% – a number, ironically, Bush has placed great significance in – it suggests his standing may be reaching the point of no return.

[TangledUpInBlue]

You know what all of these polls in this article say to me? Tells me the nominee is going to be Rubio. Write it down.

[Carl Vehse]

If the GOP selects a RINO, then another traitorous demonicrat will be elected.

[headstamp 2]

Then they can lose again.

[miss marmelstein]

But what do you think about that? You may be right.

[struggle]

>>You know what all of these polls in this article say to me? Tells me the nominee is going to be Rubio. Write it down.

I would definitely mind Rubio less than most, but there’s a strangeness about him, an awkwardness.

I’m thinking Cruz surprises everyone in Iowa, loses in NH to Trump, and then wins SC. Then comes the real competition.

[odawg]

“Tells me the nominee is going to be Rubio.”

They tell me he is trailing 4th and 5th.

[goldstategop]

I wouldn’t vote for Marco Rubio if he is the nominee.

I consider him a more energetic version of Jeb.

[Artemis Webb]

I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not. But I think Rubio will be the nominee also.

[vmivol00]

Then they won’t have my vote. I refuse to vote for that amnesty whore.

[MichaelCorleone]

How can Cruz be behind Fiorina?

If these numbers are real, then TC has a problem. And that problem is not Trump ‘sucking us all the oxygen in the room’ either.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Not really sure what you’re asking me. I think the early showings by the outsiders will quickly receded except for Trump. I think Carson is - I don’t know what. Frankly, I’ve NO IDEA how that man is polling so high. Fiorina will be easy to destroy and I expect that to happen.

That leaves Trump and Rubio. I think people love to say the love Trump. But I suspect when push comes to shove they don’t take him seriously. His bravado isn’t really Presidential and I suspect that behind curtains, people will vote for someone else.

Bush is sinking. Fast. Rubio did well in the last debate. He’s young, handsome, articulate and come from nothing. He’s not an “old stodgy white man” that the GOP has been branded with. He’s fresh. People like that and I think they’ll fal behind it. Cruz also has a chance to go this route, but there are a lot of negative articles about him and I know plenty of people that think he’s too extreme. Too alienating.

It’ll be interesting to watch - but I’m more convinced than ever now that it won’t be Bush. I think Trump and Rubio win the first three primaries. If that happens, it’ll be really hard for Bush to continue.

This is all just fun postulating though on my part.

[TangledUpInBlue]

No, not sarcastic at all. Read my latest post with my reasoning. Just gut prediction at this point.

[TangledUpInBlue]

I like Cruz. But I think he has a few BIG problems......

[MNJohnnie]

Here is some historic polling data that should make the GOPe sweat worse. Contrary to the current myths, bottom tier candidates did not “break out” suddenly into the lead in 2008 and 2012. Both McCain and Romney has solid base support in double digits during the whole primary season.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/2008_republican_presidential_nomination-2741.html

[bk1000]

“If these numbers are real, then TC has a problem.”

It really surprises me he isn’t 2nd or 3rd.

[Calpublican]

{”I wouldn’t vote for Marco Rubio if he is the nominee.
I consider him a more energetic version of Jeb.”}

LOL! You are right.

Yet old Rubio can only do one thing—run for president. I notice Ted—he’s everywhere, he’s everywhere—Cruz is able to show up for Senate votes and run for president.

But then Rubio has had a history of not showing up.

[miss marmelstein]

You answered my question which was basically about whether you liked Rubio or not. You seem too. He’s too young for me; he always looks like he’s waiting for his lunch of cookies and milk.

And it is fun thinking and talking about this.

[Resolute Conservative]

Polls are a rigged joke. The poll that counts is at the box.

[John 3_19-21]

Cruz is being shunned by the media, and by the uniparty elites.

I believe Ted is Americas best hope and therefore the DNC/MSM/GOPe's worst nightmare.

[zerosix]

I'm a GOP Precinct Committee person and delegate and no one in our District supports Rubio!

Some did early, very early before March (when Cruz tossed his hat in) but once other names popped up and especially once Rubio's colors became known, he dropped out of the top six or seven.

FYI some support slippage might also happen on Ben Carson, though I think the Dems will hold off on hitting him until later as the Establishment might want him as VP, though I doubt he'd go for that, if scuttlebut regarding his temperament around John's Hopkins with other medical staff is true.