Assuming you’re correct, and neither Shiite nor Sunni want ISIS there, what next? Will the rest of them walk to Europe? That would be ironic. Some would claim that economic sanctions are an act of war. Europe did the economic sanction thing against Russia. So now Russia enhances a situation that is sending Musilim fighting-age males into Europe. Checkmate?
?what next?
I don’t know... Probably after a period of mild stability, they are at each other’s throats again. Iraq disintegrates into three essentially separate regions... Kurds in the North, Shiites in Baghdad and the Southeast, and Sunnis in the middle and west. Perhaps Iran absorbs the Shiite portion.
I don’t know if that scenario creates tons of refugees or not. IMHO, one reason Syria looked so bad that refugees were accepted was the insanely perverse and murderous activities of ISIS. I don’t believe mild (by comparison) Sunni-Shiite strife produces millions of Euro-acceptable refugees. They may kill each other and cleanse villages, but they don’t do televised beheadings and burnings.