Hurricane Joaquin

Wunderground/Noaa ^ | 9/30/2015

[dirtboy]

Just upgraded at 8am advisory.

[dirtboy]

Trough moving eastward:

[NELSON111]

>>>We’re discussing THIS storm, in the Atlantic, on a SW track, at 6 mph, and nothing remotely in sight to make it do a U-turn .

Uh...yeah there is. It's called a, eroding ridge to the north and a TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. By Friday night a very vigorous upper level low will be located over the SE US...and that will weaken the ridging to the north...thus creating the turn.

Where did you get your degree from...since you seem to know so much more than the professionals. LOL. Bookmarking for future entertainment.

[xzins]

Not really until they put up their web site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

But, a full 90+ degree turn in the open ocean. I don’t recall any 90 degree turn, but that one will surprise me if it takes place.

[dirtboy]

Looks like a visible eye is starting to form:

[Fresh Wind]

My biggest mistake with Sandy was not selling my generator after my power came back on (2 1/2 days). I could have made a killing on it!

[dirtboy]

Check post 30 for an example of a 270 degree turn. In that exact same area.

[NELSON111]

As some have already posted....Hurricane Opal in '95 did this...and Sandy did it in 2012. Sandy was moving NE as it went east of the Carolina's and took a 90 left turn into the US.

This really does happen very often...but if you are only watching storms when they are a threat to you then you may not have seen it before....but just because you've never seen it doesn't mean it hasn't happened. I've been tracking hurricanes for 35 years...28 years as a meteorologist for the Air Force...and I promise you...this happens a LOT.

[NELSON111]

Yep. NHC is WAY weak in the intensity. Every model now takes this to at least a 3.

Another HUGE factor is going to be all of this water coming down right now in the NE. This is going to get the ground soggy...and with the leaves on the trees...saturated ground...and winds=LOTS OF DOWNED TREES.

People better get supplies and be prepared to be without power for a WHILE.

[AppyPappy]

We had 4.39” of rain yesterday. We are expecting up to 5” of rain this weekend.

Yes, we have flooding.

[cork]

Leaving Fri evening for a week on the Outer Banks. Haven’t had a vacation in 5 years. Me and Joaquin better not have a problem

[novemberslady]

Folks were offering me a $100 for a 5 gallon can of gas.

Between Sandy and the snowstorm that followed the power was down between 11 and 15 days here.

They couldn't pay me enough.

[Hatteras]

"To hit the US coast it would have to do a 120° right turn."

Stranger things have happened. 1999 Hurricane Dennis...

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

In order to come up the coast it would have to nearly REVERSE from its current track.

That is exactly what will happen. The upper atmosphere steering currents are trying to get the storm to head North but there is a high pressure area over the Atlantic that is keeping Joaquin from escaping.

Once that moves off East, the storm will be pulled Northward as the models suggest. To get to the Gulf, the Jet Stream would have to reverse course. And that is 1000 times less likely than Joaquin doing so.

[dirtboy]

Another good example - Long Island Express of 1938:

[Fresh Wind]

[angcat]

LOL and the answer is YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.

[novemberslady]

ps: Luckily I listened to Joe Bastardi's (very accurate) forecast,
instead of the talking heads.

So thank you very much to the Freeper that posted those threads.

[GOYAKLA]

Is he that LOUD “Emergency Bastard” that interrupts the TV, when I am quietly watching?

[Hatteras]

Models, Schmodels. Worried about your particular harbor? All you need to do is just keep an eye out for Jim Cantore...

[GOYAKLA]

I’m a Miami, Florida boy, born September 1935, and seen a lot of hurricanes. In the fifties one, unnamed, circled in the middle of the state. 360*. I can’t find track on that one, but try, below.
At this link , check out “Jeanne”, 09/25/2004.
https://www.pbandjelly.org/2004/09/