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Hurricane Joaquin
Wunderground/Noaa ^
| 9/30/2015
Posted on 09/30/2015 4:52:38 AM PDT by dirtboy
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Models are starting to come into agreement about a possible east coast impact
1
posted on
09/30/2015 4:52:38 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: dirtboy
All I know is my flight is Friday night and it’s not hitting till Sunday :)
2
posted on
09/30/2015 4:56:05 AM PDT
by
dp0622
To: All
Record warm water in the area, diminishing shear, improving outflow, pushing dry air away, nothing I can see to halt this storm from becoming a major hurricane.
3
posted on
09/30/2015 4:56:16 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: dirtboy
Yesterday it looked like it would stay away from the coast.
Looks closer now
4
posted on
09/30/2015 4:56:17 AM PDT
by
nuconvert
( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
To: nuconvert
There is a big ol’ blocking high up in the maritimes. Those tend to steer hurricanes to the west.
5
posted on
09/30/2015 4:58:47 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: nuconvert
Models in pretty good agreement now except for Euro (not included below):
Euro - unlikely with a blocking high:
6
posted on
09/30/2015 5:03:17 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: dirtboy
Strange that the models are hinting at landfall in the NC/VA area, but the forecast track is pointing at NYC.
7
posted on
09/30/2015 5:06:24 AM PDT
by
Fresh Wind
(Falcon 105)
To: Fresh Wind
The NHC tends to average current model runs against past runs and gradually change the forecast track in response.
8
posted on
09/30/2015 5:07:52 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: Fresh Wind
9
posted on
09/30/2015 5:08:21 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: All
Looks like it is undergoing significant intensification this morning:
10
posted on
09/30/2015 5:09:50 AM PDT
by
dirtboy
To: dirtboy
Record warm water in the area No matter what the actual temperature, it is always "record warm." I have learned to view such pronouncements with skepticism.
11
posted on
09/30/2015 5:11:46 AM PDT
by
Blennos
To: dirtboy
Why is the European Model always the best predictor? Why not the American Model? Do we now suck at everything???
To: ilovesarah2012
The American model is for Sam Champion to shriek like a girl.
13
posted on
09/30/2015 5:21:34 AM PDT
by
relictele
(Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends)
To: dirtboy
Soon the global warming cult will be calling for more sacrifices on the altar of climate change. Surely this hurricane is Mother Gaia’s wrath that we did not drive enough electric cars, had air conditioning and didn’t use enough solar and wind power.
14
posted on
09/30/2015 5:28:51 AM PDT
by
The Great RJ
(“Socialists are happy until they run out of other people's money.” Margaret Thatcher)
To: ilovesarah2012
Why is the European Model always the best predictor? Why not the American Model? Do we now suck at everything???It's not. Just yesterday the Euro had the storm coming up the East Coast, very close in...then at the next update they moved the path 900 miles west and had it slamming into Bermuda...then they had it making landfall between Hatteras and Wilmington NC...then back to Bermuda.
15
posted on
09/30/2015 5:33:50 AM PDT
by
pgkdan
(But as for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
To: dirtboy
Get someone to read the data to you. Its track is SW at 6 mph. It’s headed for Cuba or into the Gulf. In order to come up the coast it would have to nearly REVERSE from its current track.
16
posted on
09/30/2015 5:39:51 AM PDT
by
Tucker39
(Welcome to America! Now speak English; and keep to the right....In driving, in Faith, and politics.)
To: Fresh Wind
Those models are wishful thinking by. The data right there in the chart says the track is SOUTHWEST at 6mph. That will take it across Cuba. To hit the US coast it would have to do a 120° right turn.
17
posted on
09/30/2015 5:44:02 AM PDT
by
Tucker39
(Welcome to America! Now speak English; and keep to the right....In driving, in Faith, and politics.)
To: Fresh Wind
Strange that the models are hinting at landfall in the NC/VA area, but the forecast track is pointing at NYC. Higher ratings if New Yorkers watch than if Tarheels watch...
18
posted on
09/30/2015 5:45:10 AM PDT
by
null and void
(FLINT: Free enterprise, Limited government, Individual liberty, National defense, Traditional values)
To: dirtboy
It still won’t be a major hurricane when it hits. Maybe a cat 1 at most.
19
posted on
09/30/2015 5:45:36 AM PDT
by
Jack Hydrazine
(Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
To: relictele
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