Posted on 09/22/2015 1:29:18 PM PDT by Trumpinator
Not to mention that Israel will now be prevented from making pre-emptive and punative strikes across the Syrian border, which they have been making from time to time.
The rockets will fly.
Me either.
I had a reflexive negative response to Russia coming in.
It will be interesting to watch.
Looks like the grown-ups are discussing actions now that our idiot-in-chief vacated the premises. What a bunch of stooges we have, in Obama, Kerry, and Hillary. We used to be the world's policeman keeping order. Now we have a petulant child who leaves disorder and chaos in his path, and others have to step in to deal with the mess. Hope the world isn't completely burning before 2017 when we toss Obama out the door.
I am war gaming this as we speak.....
Russia parked on the coast in Syria has value to Russia because of the pipelines. Iran is a competitor to Russia for oil and gas sales to China. Russia may want to keep the Chinese sucking on their pipe while denying Europe an easy draw on that side of the pipeline. Keep Iran needy...
If America refuses to lead, others will fill the vacuum. Thanks, Obama.
The rockets will fly.
It looks like as part of the deal Hezbollah was made to back off. Reading between the lines of the news reports.
Sounds plausible.
;)
If Assad wanted to catch the west off guard he should recognize Israel and ditch the Palestinians who sided with the Sunni jihadists. Iran may allow Syria to do that also just to keep Syria under Assad and in their orbit? That is how you end the west calling Assad “a butcher”, etc - which is actually what his father was. Assad, Jr was just a figure head placed there by the Ba’athist family party.
Interesting angle. It makes sense.
The article infers that Russia and Israel are merely coordinating surveillance and actions so as not to step on each other's toes. However, more may be afoot. As you say, what if this leads to more cooperation between Syria and Israel? The fewer nations on Israel's borders trying to kill them, the better it is for Israel. This is a high-stakes chess game going on over there, very interesting times.
It seems Russia knows how to use the Shia / Sunni divide which seems to confuse the State Dept. After all these years of both Bush and Obama I have seen no policy (since I am a foreign policy geek and read on this a lot) that ever seemed to recognize the divide. Is it because in the USA we keep the myth of a melting pot and want to see the world that way also? Force Sunni Iraq to live side by side with Shia Iraqi? The Kurds?
Technically, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and Israel are also “Asia”. Egypt is Africa. But I consider Afghanistan’s politics highly Middle Eastern rather than Asian, and include them in the conversation.
Really the middle east kind of ended at the Iranian frontier. From there what fits where gets complicated.
Kinda, at least rumors. Operation Rimon 20 in July 1970, pretty much confirmed. In Golda Meir's words, How do I know there are Russian pilots in Egypt? Very simply because we had shot down four Soviet planes that were flown by Soviet pilots.
Unconfirmed presence, the larger Operation Mole Cricket 19 in June 1982. At the cost of two planes and a drone, Israel took out 30 SAM sites, confirmed to be Soviet manned, and somewhere between 80 and 90 planes in aerial combat. F-16s and F-15s vs MIG 21s and 23s. Syrian. A third to half rumored to be soviet piloted, but could have been none. In any case, rumored to be a major development in what became Glasnost.
I think it's a good thing Russia and Israel are avoiding incidents. Hard for the US, since we seem to be on all sides.
If history is any guide, any set of actions taken would have led to a whole new set of problems and opportunities. Imagine a world where Russia controlled a large portion of Middle Eastern energy and her own as well. Perhaps small, independent states warring with each other, with shifting alliances was the best option for that part of the world.
The problem is Syria doesn't control Syria bordering the Golan, Iran does. And they're building up their forces. Nor does Lebanon control their border with Israel in any meaningful way. It is better that Israeli and Russian aircraft don't have and "accident", and I doubt Russia will be conducting attacks on Israel's border.
I wouldn't assume that. Part of the conversation may have been along the lines of you stay out of our way, we'll stay out of yours.
If you were Israel, who would you rather have at your northern border? Russia or the US and the "moderates" we trained, financed, and armed?
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