Posted on 09/17/2015 4:10:14 PM PDT by onyx
If you’re a political junkie aching for hot takes, go ahead and sift through the hundreds of morning-after columns on the GOP debate. But if you want to know who actually won, better to consult the internet’s gambling addicts than its armchair pundits.
PredictWise — a site that calculates the probability of various events based on aggregated betting market odds — outperformed most pollsters and pundits in the 2012 presidential election, correctly predicting the outcomes in 49 of 50 states. Here's who, as of 4:30 p.m. Thursday, the free-market gods think won and lost last night’s debate.
Winners:
The two candidates to significantly improve their market valuation post-debate were former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and longtime odds-on favorite Jeb Bush. Even as Bush’s poll numbers have declined, he’s maintained a commanding lead in the markets – one that only grew after last night’s face-off at the Reagan Library.
PredictWise now considers Fiorina the fourth-most-likely person to be the party’s standard-bearer — not bad for a candidate that couldn’t even crack the top ten in national polls less than a month ago.
Carly Fiorina: +4 percent to 10 percent
Jeb Bush +4 percent to 39 percent
Marco Rubio +2 percent to 17 percent
Losers:
The betting markets saw a bunch of losers on last night’s debate stage. Trump entered the Reagan Library leading the field in national polls. The Donald’s polling strength allowed him to stay at the back end of the lead pack, but his “low-energy” performance hurt him among bettors. Likewise, the markets seemed to view the debate as a missed opportunity for both Scott Walker and John Kasich. The Ohio governor’s odds had ticked up in recent weeks, as Bush’s flagging poll numbers seemed to open up space for another moderate from the party’s Establishment.
Walker -2 percent to 4 percent
Trump -2 to 13 percent
Ben Carson -1.5 percent to 6 percent
Kasich -1 percent to 4 percent
Also-Rans:
Huckabee, Cruz, Christie, and Paul moved little — all had probabilities of less than 5 percent before the debate and stayed roughly where they were. Cruz leads this crew with a 4 percent chance, Huckabee’s at 2 percent, while Christie and Paul both stand as 1-to-100 long shots.
How did I do?
CNN debate changed nothing but rearrange the seats of 2nd, 3rd and 4th place
Uncle Miltie to Bigtigermike
Not that anyone cares, but Id give the following scores, in terms of what I expect are the resulting polling gains or losses by the candidates:
Fiorina +5% (Can someone get her a happy pill while shes winning, please?)
Trump -2% (Youre HIRED [if I can buy your foreign policy experience]!)
Carson -4% (Youre right, and we love you, Dr. Grampa!)
Jeb! -1% (Boehner + McConnell cant be all bad, can they?)
Cruz +/- 0% (Dude, I love you, but you gotta try to OWN the stage)
Rubio +1% (Earnest Kidlings unite!)
Paul -2% (Dude, is it like 4:20 yet?)
Huckabee -2% = +0.1% (You both know who you are, Praise JEEEZus!)
Christie -1% = 0% (Give this man a lunch bucket!)
Kasich -3% = -2% (Sucks oxygen out of the room and everyone dies of boredom)
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Did you catch that Carly chose the call name Secretariat. That makes her Horse face? And she is upset about Trumpentioning her face!
Never bet against the man who owns the casino.
Trump -2% (Youre HIRED [if I can buy your foreign policy experience]!)
***********************************************************************
At least as much as Obama had?
Trump will easily win. No one supports cross eyed bush!! He wants “Margret Thatcher” on the face of the $10 bill. Over 1 million voted today on the Drudge Report , Time magazine ans WND . Trump was over 50% on all of them!!! It is OVER!!
The media will give all the time it can to Trump, both to discredit conservatives as buffoons and to deprive any serious conservative candidate of the opportunity to convince voters otherwise. They won't give a second more to Cruz than they can avoid.
Jake Tapper was more interested in Bawbwa Wawa type "how did you feel when Trump said this about you" type questions. That is not a debate.
Someone should have asked CEO Fiorina about this quote:
"There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore."
Outsourcing and offshoring have costs to America that are not being discussed.
Not bad, save for Bush’s gain!
I think he's in a tough spot. The moderators avoid him and he doesn't want to be too strident. It's early and I think voters will cool on Trump. The SEC primaries are the key. I'm praying all the establishment rino's (Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Christie ) get washed out then and we see Cruz, Trump, Fiorina, and Carson fight it out.
Yes, I heard her give herself the name of Secretariat.
I like your take much more than she was implying with her choice.
Trump, Carson, and Walker did not lose. They didn’t win or lose. Jeb certainly did not win. Carly and Rubio spoke competently but that doesn’t mean they won. They are running for the GOP nominee. Only GOP voters can say. This GOP voter says no.
I thought it was because once Secretariat got the lead he never gave it up.
I think if she gets the nomination she would be a good POTUS.
I like Carson, but that was pitiful.
Cruz or lose.
I can sleep easier knowing that CNN’s diligent reporters fearlessly asked the difficult questions so early in the campaign.
Preferred call signs, the thing upon which the election hinges.
Thank goodness we can go to the polls armored with this knowledge.
;>)
You really think it’s over...?
We have not been though one primary yet...!
We all know how the GOPe can and will corrupt that process...!
Trump has a long road to travel yet to tie this thing down...
“Trump will easily win. No one supports cross eyed bush!! He wants Margret Thatcher on the face of the $10 bill. Over 1 million voted today on the Drudge Report , Time magazine ans WND . Trump was over 50% on all of them!!! It is OVER!!”
This is going to be so much fun.
Well,fair enough but I want to give you some hope. Trump hasn’t event started— When he unleashes his paid media ,it will be “shock and awe”!! He is our new PRESIDENT!! bush wanted an English prime minister on our $10 bill!! Holy crap!! Then FiaRINO is a joke. She ran two companies totally in the ground!! She ran as a LIBERAL in California. She is a SEXIST!!
She got crushed by Idiot Babs Boxer in the CA senate race.
The entire Board of HP Campaigned against in tne Gop primary !
Former employees were coming out everywhere to stop her in CA.
This idiot almost destroyed HP by buying the God awful Compaq which was dying on the vine on its own.
She is truly hated person by those that know her.
The nasty piece of work tried to force out the HP family members on the Board.
Boxer had unlimited ammo just from people that knew her .
Her on any ticket would get Hillary or Biden elected in a Boxer like landslide .
That's why CNN ignore the rules and let her on the stage.
She is the DC Wall Street establishment assassin who will get the Dems choice elected !
The Hill reports this today:
Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson told The Hill on Wednesday that it was a mistake for the U.S. to invade Iraq, arguing that the nation should have found a different way to remove Saddam Hussein from power.Though don't get the idea that he's a pacifist:
“I’ve said definitively that I was never in favor of going into Iraq,” Carson told The Hill in a phone interview, noting that he has previously addressed the matter in some of his books....
“I would have gotten rid of the problem of Saddam Hussein some other way,” he continued. “When you go into a situation with so many factions and such a complex history, unless you know what you’re doing or have a long-term strategy, it just creates more problems.”Y'know, we have ... ways.
When pressed on how the U.S. should have toppled Hussein without sending troops into the country, Carson said that “there are a lot of ways to get rid of people.”
I don't know what he thinks we could have done. But it's true -- he's been saying this sort of thing for a while. In fact, as the Daily Caller noted in 2013, he was against invading Afghanistan after 9/11. He had a simple alternative to that war as well:
“I actually wrote President Bush a letter before the war started and I said, you know, what I would do is I would use the bully pulpit at this moment of great national unity and, very much in a Kennedy-esque type fashion, say within 10 years we’re going to become petroleum independent,” Carson told TheDC.Simple!
“And that would’ve been much more effective than going to war because, first of all, the moderate Arab states would’ve been terrified. And they would’ve handed over Osama Bin Laden and anybody else we wanted on a silver platter to keep us from doing that.”
And yes, all this was spelled out in his 2012 book, America the Beautiful:
After the 9/11 crisis almost everyone united behind President George W. Bush for a reason. Whether America's ensuing steps into war in Afghanistan and Iraq will be seen as positive remains to be seen, but I can't help thinking there may have been a better way to react that would not have cost us so many lives and financial capital. I believe that if the president had seized the moment and declared that we would become petroleum independent within the next 10 years as part of our efforts to strip terrorism of its resources, that business, industry, academia, and everyone else would have been foursquare behind him, and we would have been much further ahead in the fight against terrorism than we are today.I don't know how this is going to go over when Carson is participating in the presidential debates. (And yes, right now it looks as if he's going to make the cut.) But it's going to be entertaining. I hope someone asks him about Vietnam, and he tries to tell a rock-ribbed Republican audience what he told us in America the Beautiful:
Oil prices would have fallen dramatically in an attempt to soften our resolve, but good leadership would hopefully have recognized and compensated for such a ploy. The point, of course, is that in some cases, clever tactics can be employed outside of military action to respond to hostile actions
In the case of Vietnam, we were trying to stop the spread of communism, which seems like a noble cause to those who hate communism. However, many people love communism, and certainly everyone should have the right to live under the system of their choosing.Yeah, that should go over well in front of an audience of Iowa Republicans.
Conservatives who made Carson a hero bought huge quantities of his books. Did they ever actually read them?
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