I’ll take 20:1 money on Trump.
I don’t like him, but if Nate Silver is a betting man, I’ll take Trump for my one thousand against Nate and everyone else for twenty thousand. I like my odds.
Nate Silver has about 2.5% chance of being seen as a wise person.
Booshies have 0%.
Bush has at least a 95% chance of getting (not “winning”) the nomination, no matter what his poll numbers now or ever.
His logic is flawed. How can his prediction be accurate if it is a unique situation?
The take away line is “..if you look back at history..” appearing as early as the fourth line.
That is possibly the problem with TRump opponents. They are sitting on history, hoping against hope, that history will give them comfort and prove the eventual crush of Trump.
This no ordinary primary, is all I know. It looks like a movement. I hope we roll these naysayers.
Trump is helped by the number of traditional pols running in the race who are splitting up the traditional pol vote.I think there is a hunger out there this year for an outsider and basically he being the most celebrated outsider he has the monopoly on the outsider vote while those other guys have to split up the traditional pol vote.Perhaps when the field gets whittled down to 1 or 2 traditional pols vs Trump, the race will be more competitive. Reminds me of celebrity outsider Schwartznegger winning the governorship in California.
Given the large number of candidates, isn’t that like saying that at this early point, it’s just a toss-up?
I’ll take those odds. Where can I find a bookie who will take the bet?
20 to 1 in a field of 12-15? With Trump leading the pack by 20 lengths out of the gate?
Put me down for $5000. Papa needs a new pair of shoes.
How about let the voters decide?