Posted on 09/14/2015 6:23:20 PM PDT by TroutStalker
NEW YORK — Wall Street is growing increasingly terrified that Donald Trump — once viewed as an amusing summertime distraction — could actually win the Republican nomination for president.
The real estate billionaire, who took another populist shot on Sunday by ripping into lavish executive pay, continues to rise in the polls. Would-be Wall Street saviors like Jeb Bush are languishing in single digits. The belief that Trump's candidacy would quickly fade is now evaporating in a wave of fear.
“I held four lunches for investors in August and at the first one everyone assumed Trump would implode,” said Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners and a senior figure on Wall Street. “By the fourth one everyone was taking him very seriously. He taps into frustrations that are very real and he is a master manipulator of the media.”
The CEO of one large Wall Street firm, who declined to be identified by name criticizing the GOP front-runner, said the assumption in the financial industry remains that something will eventually knock Trump off and send voters toward a more establishment candidate. But that assumption is no longer held with strong conviction. And a dozen Wall Street executives interviewed for this article could not say what might dent Trump's appeal or when it might happen.
"I don't know anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. I don’t know anyone who knows anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. They are like this huge mystery group,” the CEO said. "So it's a combination of shock and bewilderment. No one really knows why this is happening. But my own belief is that the laws of gravity will apply and those who are prepared to run the marathon will benefit when Trump drops out at mile 22. Right now people think Trump is pretty hilarious but the longer it goes on the more frightening it gets."
"Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton will continue to let Wall Street and the 'hedge fund guys' rip off the people by paying no or very little in taxes," Trump said. "They have total and complete control of Hillary, Jeb and others running. My campaign is self- funded. The only people that have control of me are the people of the United States."
The comments on Wall Street were relatively tame in comparison with his fiery rhetoric about deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants within two years and building a giant border wall with Mexico. The billionaire also recently ripped former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s looks, saying they would make her unelectable.
But Trump’s skill at tapping into populist discontent with all major U.S. institutions — including Wall Street — has financial executives increasingly dismayed at the GOP front-runner’s staying power and long-term impact on the party even if he doesn’t get the nomination.
“I don’t think Trump is going to win, but I do worry about all the damage being done to Republicans among Hispanics and women by him being such an idiot,” said a senior executive and major GOP fundraiser at a large bank who also declined to be identified by name. “Everyone thinks he is a buffoon and a bombastic loudmouth who won’t be around at the end. But the concern is that he is still at 30 in the polls and he is going to hang around for a while and do a great deal of damage.”
So far there is no organized effort on Wall Street to mount a “stop Trump” campaign.
Mostly such efforts entail funneling even more money to Bush, whose super PAC, Right to Rise, raised more than $100 million through the first six months of the year. To a lesser extent, Wall Street money continues to flow to Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, though Walker is largely viewed as increasingly marginalized in the race.
Supporters of Bush say they still believe that the former Florida governor’s numbers will begin to move when the campaign starts deploying some of its huge war chest to run television ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary and caucus states. And while they say Bush needs a strong performance at Wednesday night’s debate, they don’t expect Bush to throw haymakers Trump’s way.
“Yes I’m a little worried about how poorly Jeb is doing,” said a second Wall Street CEO who is backing the former Florida governor but would not speak on the record. “Hopefully it will get better over time. But there is no point trading insults with Trump. There is a saying that you don’t wrestle with pigs because you just get dirty and the pig loves it.”
Part of the reason Wall Street executives won’t go on the record about Trump is that they believe criticizing him will only drive his numbers higher. Americans continue to hold big banks in low regard following the financial crisis. And Trump’s momentum is built on a generalized hostility to the political and corporate establishment.
Trump can rip into executive compensation in part because he built his own empire and brand and his Trump Organization is privately held, so he can’t be accused of using shareholders' money to enrich himself, a cudgel often used to attack high executive pay at public companies. And establishment attacks would likely just make him stronger.
“Most people in the New York business community don’t really like to speak publicly about politicians and especially not Trump, because he will just jump ugly all over them,” said Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of the New York City Partnership, a group that includes many of the city’s top business leaders. “Trump has never really been part of the New York City business community or particularly engaged with the real estate community. There’s certainly no close set of relations there. He’s really a lone wolf. And a lot of these people thought Jeb Bush was a shoo-in and they are upset now because they have already thrown in with him and he is looking a little wilted.”
Trump is not entirely without Wall Street support.
He has regularly praised Carl Icahn and said he would make the billionaire investor his first Treasury secretary. Icahn tweeted recently that he would accept the post. He did not respond to a request for comment on Trump. The frustration on Wall Street goes beyond just Trump’s rise and staying power. The industry’s other preferred candidate, Clinton, is also suffering under the populist wave, losing ground to independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a self-described socialist and outspoken Wall Street critic.
The industry began this election cycle confident that a GOP candidate like Bush would win, and offer some reprieve from populist anger. And if that didn’t happen they would at least get Clinton, who has long and deep ties to the industry and is viewed as largely moderate on financial regulation.
Both Bush and Clinton have tacked populist with pledges to increase taxes on some wealthy investors. But they are still both establishment-friendly, with policies on trade, immigration and other issues that line up closely with elite opinion. And Wall Street does not view either candidate as likely to use the office to further stoke populist resentments.
“Neither of them are doing very well right now,” said one Wall Street Democrat of Bush and Clinton. “Both Trump and Sanders have done a pretty great job tapping into this sense of frustration not just with Wall Street but with all of the establishment.”
One person who might benefit from Trump’s rise and Bush’s current stagnation is Kasich, who worked for seven years at Lehman Brothers — though in an Ohio office — and is viewed as something of an establishment-populist hybrid given his folksy demeanor and heartland background.
“Kasich is a true businessman in contrast to Trump. He is the businessman candidate and he’s pretty compelling in part because Jeb has taken such a beating,” said Wylde. “I’ve set up a meet- and -greet with Governor Kasich and I’ve already got a sellout crowd.”
"I don't know a single person who voted for Richard Nixon."
-- Pauline Kael, New Yorker, 1972
Was Wall Street (or anyone else opposing Trump today) as disturbed that a foreign Muslim communist could win in 2008? The problem for people opposing Trump is that he beats the Kenyan Pirate by any measurement of qualification.
Business leaders are terrified that a business leader might gain political power.
This tells you a great deal about our business leaders.
We are a Fascist country: the business leaders (most of ‘em) depend on State intervention. Big Government helps Big Business. Big Business helps Big Government.
Now they are terrified that an actual businessman may get in there and shake up the system.
Confirmation Bias. The CEO should go out and do some undercover shopping at Walmart.
That’s one bunch of ballsy forecasters. Wonder why they won’t give their names? ;)
These freaks deserve a good drubbing. They need their clock cleaned. They need an acid enema.
I want that to happen.
Trump best watch his back.
“”I don’t know anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. I don’t know anyone who knows anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. They are like this huge mystery group,” the CEO said.”
And there’s his problem, right there. When you don’t know what 30% of the people are thinking, you are out of touch.
Bad sports analogy for a "smart guy." He's thinking "marathon," while Trump is playing for a "shut-out."
Politico = Garbage
Uh-huh,..right.
Trump is not a true businessman compared to Gov.Kasich. I assume that means one takes bribes on Wall Street’s behalf and the other gets his money the old fashioned way - by
earning it.
I think ya’ll can guess which is which.
Yeah remember Bill Clinton? I didn’t vote for him? then how did he win 2 terms, the same with the muslim in chief...
Well I’m voting for Trump all the way to the White House!!!!
Should Trump start in on Ditch & Dingy and Boner & Nazi, he’d shoot to the moon.
So why isn’t Wall Street afraid of any “we are for the people” democrats...?
It surely helps Trump when they say here that he was a lone wolf and not tight-knit with the Wall Street community...big league.
There is scant sympathy among conservatives for Wall Street’s corporate welfare fat cats.
The perception is less they represent capitalism than they are beneficiaries of a system stacked against mainstream Americans.
Plus their liberalism doesn’t sit well with much of the country.
All the more reason to vote for Trump. (NOTE: he better not let us down with this when he gets in or there will be protests on the streets)
For those so inclined, prayers for Trump’s safety would be good.
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