Can We Grow At 4% Clip? Sure, With Right Policies

Investors Busniness Daily ^ | 09/03/2015 | ANDREW ATKESON, LEE E. OHANIAN AND WILLIAM E. SIMON JR.

[expat_panama]

It is no secret that the recovery from the recession that ended in June of 2009 has been virtually non-existent. More striking, however, is the impact that this recession and its aftermath have had on the conventional wisdom in Washington regarding America's long-term economic future.

This is clearly seen in current forecasts of America's future economic potential from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which predict that a large portion of America's economic potential has been permanently lost.

We believe that this remarkably pessimistic forecast is wrong. An economic policy agenda aimed at...

[snip]

The CBO's June 2015 estimate of America's potential real GDP for this year is nearly 9% lower than the CBO forecast 2015 made in 2007. Our actual economic performance now is even worse — over 12% below the 2007 estimate of where we should be after a full recovery from this recession.

This gap exceeds $1.2 trillion, or over $6,600 for every American. And the CBO forecasts that this gap between America's current real GDP and its potential as of 2007 will never be closed.

Economic growth is the result of higher employment and higher worker productivity, and the CBO expects both to be much lower in future years than they did in their earlier forecast.

[snip]

Safety-net policies should not discourage work through high implicit tax rates resulting from means-tested programs. Regulatory policies should not erect barriers to competition and raise costs. Education policies should expand competition and reward the most successful teachers. Immigration policies should expand the number of skilled workers and immigrant entrepreneurs. And tax policies should simplify the tax code, reduce business and personal marginal income tax rates and broaden the tax base.

Getting people back to work and boosting productivity should lie at the heart of the next president's economic agenda.

[expat_panama]

From what I can gather here, "...exceeds $1.2 trillion, or over $6,600 for every American. ..." means a family of  is missing out on $26,400.  Every year.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Sure, bring back AMERICAN JOBS.

[wastoute]

First we gotta purge our system of the libtards. Gonna be like cleaning the Minoan stables.

[wastoute]

Sorry, Augean stables.

[Smittie]

The big globalist companies may have recovered their earnings in this “recovery” but the small businesses & average citizens haven’t seen any recovery.

[expat_panama]

Good morning, time rise and scream!  Yesterday's stock index jump/flat is now future looking to -0.90%.  No way to start our 3-day weekend if you ask me.  Metals futures are also down to  -0.49% with gold and silver now at $1,125.30 and $14.74.

Everyone's talking about our wonderful unemployment report:

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Average Workweek

Headlines from the Confirmation Bias Newsservice:

• What to Expect From the Jobs Report
• Global stocks slide ahead of US jobs data
• Brace yourself, Labor Day traffic will be the worst since 2008
• CNBC Wall Street set for rocky ride ahead of jobs report
• A Wild Ride For the Stock Market Lies Ahead - Doug Kass, Kass's Corner

[Original Lurker]

That’s a good idea but I’d MUCH rather see the current system of systemic and endemic crony capitalism gutted and dismantled.

We should start with the greatest whore in all of Babylon - Goldman Sachs.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

We’ve been talking about everything (but) American jobs now for over one entire generation.

Bring back American jobs.

[expat_panama]

Sure, bring back AMERICAN JOBS.

Yeah, we all love jobs, we all love America, but it's this going "back" part that's wrong. 

Making war on business, tax hikes, and restricting consumer spending is how we got into this mess in the first place.  OK, so some people don't like it when others outsource to survive.   Making that harder will not make insourcing any easier especially when we're also getting more tax hikes and even bigger government.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

173k jobs vs 220k exp.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Well you may have a different perspective than I do, since you’re apparently living overseas.

I say bring back American jobs.

[expat_panama]

The big globalist companies may have recovered their earnings in this “recovery” but the small businesses & average citizens haven’t seen any recovery.

Let's quit this war on the rich and remember a speech by Reagan:

You cannot bring prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot help small men by tearing down big men.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.
You cannot help the poor man by destroying the rich.
You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than your income.
You cannot further brotherhood of men by inciting class hatred.
You cannot establish security on borrowed money.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away man's initiative and independence.
You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.

[citizen]

+173k does not equal a 0.2% drop in unemployment rate.
How many left the work force this month?? 500,000?

[expat_panama]

you’re apparently living overseas.

LOL!!!  --were now we're changing the subject to my being a bad guy and forgetting about econ policy.  Now some folks hate all the personal attacks we got on the FR, but for me it means the attacker has absolutely no defense for his goofy ideas and he's grasping at anything he can throw.

It also means my econ take is spot on and I can continue to reap obscene profits w/ my investments.  

[Cringing Negativism Network]

I think a significant portion of those profits will return to American, if Trump is elected.

You might want to make appropriate modifications just in case.

Just saying.

[NonLinear]

Monthly Jobs Report

[expat_panama]

173k jobs vs 220k exp.

Oh yeah, the iconology --thanks!  (from BLS: Payroll employment rises by 173,000 in August; unemployment rate edges down to 5.1%)

Ain't that great?  We get a lower unemployment rate even w/ a shrinking labor force!

[expat_panama]

those profits

Oh, you mean MY profits.  Not worried about your vengeance weapons, they're already in use:

[citizen]

U-6 fell too, to 10.3%
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/04/-the-real-unemployment-rate.html

[taildragger]

4%? oh heck that is low...

During the Clinton boom boom years ( Actually he had Reagan's tailwind in his spinnaker, but I digress ) their was a financial wonk that noted even quietly within and outside the admin their was talk we were actually growing at 5 to 6%.

Here is my blueprint for obtaining such growth.

* Repeal Dodd-Frank, Sarb-Ox, and all reforms since 98' and re-instate Glass Steegal.
* replace with a simple common sense finance law.
* 15% Flat Tax no deductions except for healthcare / insurance, 15% Dividends, 15% Cap Gains and 15% Business Tax with no deductions and 100% expense right off in the 1st year.
* Repeal Obamacare, replace w/ a HSA - direct primary care platform which could be utilized for the private sectoring of the VA, Medicaid or Medicare. Other details w/ this, but I will keep it brief.
* Combine EPA, DOE, & Interior. Downsize by 60%. 30 year review of all mandates and throw out non cost effective ones. Use the Rand Corp as the consultant to do that.

And that is for starters...